NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:02 pm

Another interesting viewpoint of Winter...
Attachments
NWS NOAA Outlook For Winter 2018 2019.PNG

Cpv17
Posts: 124
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:17 pm

jasons wrote:The AFD was very detailed. Here is sorta the summary at the end:
Fortunately the models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts well off the
coast in the Gulf that the area should avoid the heavy rainfall
threat. That`s not to say we will not get any rain in the area
because we are still looking at a good 1 to 3 inches of rain
across the area for the 5 day period next week. It just looks like
those isolated higher amounts will stay of the coast and not be a
problem for the area. Keep in mind this is still the extended
forecast and we`ve seen the second shortwave trough change in
timing for Wed/Thur quite a bit with the last day or two`s worth
of model runs.
The 12z Euro is more aggressive with rain.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...:)
Attachments
Average High Temperature from October 15 to November 15.PNG

User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 535
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by snowman65 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:52 pm

tireman4 wrote:Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...:)
And here I was thinking all the orange in Florida were areas of voter fraud...lol. But yes, Srain is the one to go to for enhanced insight :)

Cpv17
Posts: 124
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:11 pm

snowman65 wrote:
tireman4 wrote:Average High Temperature- October 15 to November 15th...Now, Srain can extrapolate more on this since he is a pro met and a long range guy, but look at the cool colors...:)
And here I was thinking all the orange in Florida were areas of voter fraud...lol. But yes, Srain is the one to go to for enhanced insight :)
I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.

Image

Image

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:28 pm

NWS Weekend Outlook
Attachments
NWS Weekend Outlook 11 16 18.PNG

User avatar
don
Posts: 376
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Houston,TX
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by don » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:47 pm

I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.
It looks like our next shot of cold air (and maybe a storm) may arrive by the first half of December, as usual models will flip flop as they try to resolve this complex pattern. Btw we don't need a 1050mb+ high to get cold enough for a winter storm in fact a high too strong can make us too dry for precipitation to form. Even a high in the upper 1030mb's can be cold enough for winter weather as long as you have a storm system that can "dig" enough to tap into the cold air.

Cpv17
Posts: 124
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:03 pm

don wrote:
I really don’t see any signs on the models of any cold air coming the next couple weeks and neither does the CPC. We need cold air to build in our source region (western and northern Canada) and a 1050mb+ high pressure to drive it south and I don’t see any signs of that happening on the models. The FV3 hinted at it a couple days ago, but now has lost it.
It looks like our next shot of cold air (and maybe a storm) may arrive by the first half of December, as usual models will flip flop as they try to resolve this complex pattern. Btw we don't need a 1050mb+ high to get cold enough for a winter storm in fact a high too strong can make us too dry for precipitation to form. Even a high in the upper 1030mb's can be cold enough for winter weather as long as you have a storm system that can "dig" enough to tap into the cold air.
I’m talking about when the high is in Canada though or near Montana/Wyoming. I know we would probably be too dry if it were that strong anywhere near Texas. 1030-1040mb seems to be the right strength around here, but correct me if I’m wrong.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 18023
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:36 am

One last today of 'warm' temperature and partly cloudy conditions before a shallow modified Canadian front arrives tomorrow afternoon/evening. This shallow cold front will drop temperatures into the 50's for daytime highs and possibly 40's for morning lows, particularly N of I-10 throughout most of the Thanksgiving Holiday week. Rain chances return tomorrow afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and rain chances remain in the forecast through at least Thanksgiving Morning. The can be summarized as wet & dreary as a series of upper air disturbances roll across our Region and a very pesky Coastal trough keeps our weather unsettled. The heaviest rainfall does appear to remain offshore, but there is a chance for elevated storms particularly on the busy Wednesday before Thanksgiving Travel Day. Pack your patience if you plan on flying out of SE Texas Wednesday!
Attachments
11172018 5 Day QPF p120i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard

User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 1883
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Katdaddy » Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:38 pm

Enjoy this beautiful mild Saturday across SE TX.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-11-17 at 12.34.38 PM.png

Post Reply