NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:18 pm

snowman65 wrote:The longer range guidance will be playing cat up with these new Updated Teleconnection Indices. Impressive Hemispheric Pattern developing as we end November and begin December. Siberia is running well below normal temperature wise for mid November. A massive Northern latitude blocking regime establishes a very negative NAO and AO. That positive PNA suggests a Western Ridge and a negative EPO delivers storms system at the higher latitudes up and over the Bering Sea/Western Alaska dumping cold air across the North Pole into North America. Above normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere also suggests less airmass modification as we roll forward in time.
This is what I read: The longer range ndfgoijhdgh[ne[hoerhoh Novemebr and begin December. A massive i;apiohvihvfqhphnpuihafguiomvehp[iomhcwaemhe. Above normal snowfall.......

:lol: :lol: :lol:[/quote]

Just know that the temperatures of the oceans play a very important role in the weather globally, not just here.

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srainhoutx
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:52 pm

Sorry snowman65. I was in a hurry and didn't explain myself very well. I'll dial back the technical jargon and keep it readable in the days ahead. Hectic times these days with everything with the Weather Forum future issues and Thanksgiving Holidays speeding toward us... ;)
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Cpv17
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:09 pm

All of the 12z model runs today backed away from cold air. The only model run today that showed any potential for Artic air was the 6z FV3. Plenty of rain around though for the next couple weeks.

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tireman4
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:54 pm

NWS Houston Tonight Forecast
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Cpv17
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:05 pm

WPC keeps most of the rain offshore for next week.

Image

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by cperk » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:52 am

srainhoutx wrote:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:December is starting to look very cold and stormy! We may be locking in an epic Winter in a couple weeks.

Long range has flipped to much Colder.
The longer range guidance will be playing cat up with these new Updated Teleconnection Indices. Impressive Hemispheric Pattern developing as we end November and begin December. Siberia is running well below normal temperature wise for mid November. A massive Northern latitude blocking regime establishes a very negative NAO and AO. That positive PNA suggests a Western Ridge and a negative EPO delivers storms system at the higher latitudes up and over the Bering Sea/Western Alaska dumping cold air across the North Pole into North America. Above normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere also suggests less airmass modification as we roll forward in time.
This is why we need our forum and I'm willing to contribute to keep if that's what it comes down to.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by jasons » Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:58 am

The AFD was very detailed. Here is sorta the summary at the end:
Fortunately the models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts well off the
coast in the Gulf that the area should avoid the heavy rainfall
threat. That`s not to say we will not get any rain in the area
because we are still looking at a good 1 to 3 inches of rain
across the area for the 5 day period next week. It just looks like
those isolated higher amounts will stay of the coast and not be a
problem for the area. Keep in mind this is still the extended
forecast and we`ve seen the second shortwave trough change in
timing for Wed/Thur quite a bit with the last day or two`s worth
of model runs.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:22 am

srainhoutx wrote:Sorry snowman65. I was in a hurry and didn't explain myself very well. I'll dial back the technical jargon and keep it readable in the days ahead. Hectic times these days with everything with the Weather Forum future issues and Thanksgiving Holidays speeding toward us... ;)

It happens to all pro mets Srain. Even Dr. Frank was chastised about meteorological jargon..LOL ( USA Today Weather book about his dealings with the public after Camille)...lol..we love ya

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:24 am

HGX Weather Forecast...
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Slow Warming Trend/Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by BlueJay » Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:42 am

Just got done un-blanketing in the yard. It looks like all my plants, with the exception of the sweet potato vine, survived our first freeze.

So glad to see the sun.

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