NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[Cpv17]

Well...the 12z GFS is quite chilly.

And wet.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Global Deterministic Models have all trended colder including the "new" GFS (FV3) and the ECMWF. The second shot o colder air appears to be trending a bit further West in its trajectory toward the Plains versus a glancing shot to our East.

[CrashTestDummy]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

and I thought University of Texas' color came from the steer. More like brown patch! There's no fighting >20 inches of rain. That's one way to stop the grass from going and a need to mow regularly. fungicide only put a small dent in progress in the front year. I didn't even bother with the back.

If it's not underwater for months at a time, it's without water for months at a time. It's a wonder there's anything growing at all other than dyemakers puffballs!

Probably time to roll out the Astroturf, but it will probably blow away in the next storm.

[CrashTestDummy]

84 degree high and pea soup in November...

It's a great day when you can walk outside in the morning, and eat some of the atmosphere for breakfast!!

[Texaspirate11]

Galveston could break a record today with a high temp.....

. Ob trends indicating that we could
see slightly higher temperatures this afternoon...including a high
temperature record that could be broken at Galveston. The previous
record high for GLS is 82F set in 2017 and 2005.


PLEASE KEEP THIS FORUM OPEN KHOU!

[Cpv17]

[DoctorMu]

That's a LeBron level weather slam dunk.

[Cpv17]

Could this challenge records?

[Katdaddy]

A warm muggy morning with areas of fog N of Houston this morning. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SE TX this afternoon and evening ahead of the first cool front. A second cool front will move across SE TX Thursday night bringing much cooler weather through the weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. It will seem more like Winter with gloomy skies and showers.

[srainhoutx]

Temperatures tomorrow should start the downward trend from the muggy and sticky late Summer/early Fall 'feels like' conditions we are currently experiencing. Expect temperatures on Friday to be a good 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today and likely holding steady throughout Saturday into midday Sunday when a very strong Canadian Front arrives Sunday night/early Monday. Next Monday could be a very raw drizzly day when temperatures may struggle to reach the upper 40's for highs. We will be watching the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning timeframe very closely as the guidance is indicating that clear skies and very chilly temperatures may bring the first frost to the area. I know our gardeners pay close attention to that sort of detail. Stay tuned!

[tireman4]

6 to 10 day outlook...

[srainhoutx]

Interestingly, the 12Z GEFS (Ensemble) suggests the potential for a light freeze/frost next Tuesday/Wednesday and possibly Thursday mornings across most areas along and N of I-10. While it is too soon to know exactly what the sensible weather may bring, our Agricultural and Gardening interests may want to follow the future forecast closely.

[tireman4]

Stepping down, as Srain might say....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 071753
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Surface analysis has cold front from central TX to east TX just
north of a KCLL to KLFK line. The front should slowly slide into
the area. South of the boundary conditions are transitioning from
MVFR to VFR with the possibility of isolated TSRA. TAFs will carry
VCTS given SPC marginal risk and HRRR/WRF runs supporting
convection forming along the front later this afternoon and
evening. There are some TSRA that have formed along the coast so
KLBX and KGLS may need updated for a prevailing TSRA if it looks
like storms along this convergent zone shift into their areas.
KHOU may also see TSRA earlier than what the TAF shows and will be
monitored.

Front should slide south 00Z to 09Z tonight with very slow
progress. We anticipate the front may push to the coast but there
is a chance the front stalls near KLBX and KGLS. This would impact
the ceiling/visibility forecast for tomorrow morning. Assuming
the front pushes through, IFR or even LIFR conditions are expected
with fog/drizzle possible. Current observations behind the front
in north Texas have ceilings 200-800ft. Low ceilings will likely
linger through much of the day tomorrow with not much improvement.
Expectation is for IFR to become MVFR but IFR may hold.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 926 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018/...

.DISCUSSION...
Did make some tweaks to the going forecast...mainly for temper-
atures based on current trends. Another record high is possible
for GLS (previous record is 83 set in 2017 and 1995). Otherwise
fog should continue to burn off by mid morning. Scattered TSRAs
are expected to develop further inland this afternoon. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 60 65 51 57 44 / 50 50 80 50 10
Houston (IAH) 65 74 55 58 46 / 50 40 80 80 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 74 60 63 51 / 50 30 70 80 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck

[srainhoutx]

The coldest air of the Season looks to arrive Sunday night into Monday. A big dome of Canadian High Pressure settles over East Texas setting the stage for some very chilly early morning temperatures early to mid next week.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory continues until 9:30PM for central Harris County:

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

TXC201-080330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0162.181108T0124Z-181108T0330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
724 PM CST WED NOV 7 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 PM CST.

* At 723 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to a slow
moving thunderstorm. This will cause minor flooding within the
advisory area. Up to one to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jersey Village, Greater Greenspoint, northwestern Northside /
Northline, Aldine, northeastern Addicks Park Ten, Fairbanks /
Northwest Crossing, Willowbrook, Hidden Valley, Acres Home, Greater
Inwood, Carverdale, Westbranch and Central Northwest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

[srainhoutx]

Cold Weather is coming...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CST THU NOV 8 2018

HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-
WALLER-INLAND HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-INLAND JACKSON-
INLAND MATAGORDA-INLAND BRAZORIA-INLAND GALVESTON-
SOUTHERN LIBERTY-COASTAL HARRIS-COASTAL JACKSON-COASTAL MATAGORDA-
COASTAL BRAZORIA-COASTAL GALVESTON-MATAGORDA ISLANDS-
BRAZORIA ISLANDS-GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CROCKETT, TRINITY, GROVETON,
MADISONVILLE, HUNTSVILLE, SHEPHERD, COLDSPRING, LIVINGSTON,
CORRIGAN, CALDWELL, SOMERVILLE, COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, BRENHAM,
NAVASOTA, CONROE, THE WOODLANDS, LIBERTY, CLEVELAND, DAYTON,
COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, WEIMAR, SEALY, BELLVILLE, HEMPSTEAD,
PRAIRIE VIEW, BROOKSHIRE, WALLER, HOUSTON, WINNIE, MONT BELVIEU,
ANAHUAC, STOWELL, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, EL CAMPO, WHARTON,
MISSOURI CITY, MISSION BEND, SUGAR LAND, ROSENBERG, FIRST COLONY,
PECAN GROVE, EDNA, GANADO, BAY CITY, PEARLAND, ALVIN, ANGLETON,
LEAGUE CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, DEVERS, PASADENA, BAYTOWN, PALACIOS,
LAKE JACKSON, FREEPORT, CLUTE, TEXAS CITY, DICKINSON, LA MARQUE,
SURFSIDE BEACH, AND GALVESTON
609 AM CST THU NOV 8 2018

...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN NEXT
WEEK...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER, SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL UNDERGO A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN FORTUNE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY AND USHER IN SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AUTUMN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE 50'S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING SO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50'S. LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 40'S. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA.
AGAIN, THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY
WARM-UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50'S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE MIDDLE 70'S AND THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 50'S.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 50'S NORTH TO AROUND
60 SOUTH. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT IS DRY AND DRY
AIR COOLS FASTER AT NIGHT SO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30'S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

[Texaspirate11]

Got over 2 inches of rain last night
Not looking forward to this cold front...at all...

[CrashTestDummy]

Got over 2 inches of rain last night
Not looking forward to this cold front...at all...

The rain gauge on our brand new Acurite weather station that we got to replace the failed Acurite 5-in-1 weather station we had is still not working, so we got 0.00" of rain yesterday. One of the pups, however, is enjoying the water standing in the yard.

But yeah, I'm anticipating neither the extra rain, nor the colder temps we're expecting the rest of the week and next week.

[jasons2k]

Got another 1.38" last night.

This morning was perfect PERFECT weather for my run. Cool, but not cold. The mist was refreshing.

I am NOT looking forward to the chilly weather ahead for next week!!

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro has a freeze for everyone in SETX Wednesday morning except for the immediate coastline.