NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

[Katdaddy]

It will be interesting to see how the trough and EPAC will interact the next 5-7 days.

[sau27]

12z Euro joining the 12Z GFS showing quite a cold front around next weekend. Not down to freezing but maybe touching the upper 30s at night.

[srainhoutx]

The pleasant weather will quickly turn cloudy and drizzly tonight as a cold front currently entering the Panhandle sweeps SE and stalls near the Coast tomorrow. A second front arrives Tuesday setting up a chance for some over running moisture from mid week until the end of the work week, The overnight guidance is trending toward the possibility of the strongest cold front of the Fall Season arriving sometime of Friday/early Saturday. There may be a robust winter storm developing across portions of the Panhandle/Southern Plains with this strong cold front with snow in the coldest air and very chilly rain across N Texas. Temperatures may tumble into the upper 30's to low 40's behind that late week front, if the Medium Range guidance is correct.

[snowman65]

I also noticed a huge plunge of very cold air on the gfs headed this way Thanksgiving week.

[srainhoutx]

Anytime I see the ECMWF suggesting a 1050 mb High in Colorado in November that suggests mighty chilly air settling in the Lone Star State. Consensus growing that the first real Blue Norther may be coming late next week.

[Cpv17]

Cold and wet times appear to be ahead of us.

[DoctorMu]

If we can keep the darned EPAC moisture and SJT at bey the front could be pretty dry next weekend.

[DoctorMu]

20.37 inches of rain in September and October IMBY. That's just over half a year's worth of precipitation in just 2 months! Whoa.

...and another couple of inches last night. Sunny for the next 3 days before the front.

[srainhoutx]

Roller-coaster weather pattern ahead the next 7 to 10 days with cold fronts arriving every 3 to 4 days. The late week front continues to look like the strongest front we've seen so far this Fall Season. I am carefully watching an even stronger front arriving early next week. We could see some snow flying across the Southern Rockies/Central/Southern Plains late this week and again this weekend. If that verifies, the cold air advection behind those two strong fronts could bring some very chilly temperatures well into our Region. Enjoy the 80's today and tomorrow...

[tireman4]

Well, this is a weather forum...so heads up to the East of us...it could be a rocky day out there...

[sau27]

Whats the deal with the sudden shut down notice at the top of the page???

[mckinne63]

Whats the deal with the sudden shut down notice at the top of the page???

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2248

[Cromagnum]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

[DoctorMu]

I may as well set fire to my St Augustine yard. Brown patch has lost its mind with all the rain this year and chemical control has done absolutely nothing to slow it down, let alone stop it. 75% of my yard is orange now.

and I thought University of Texas' color came from the steer. More like brown patch! There's no fighting >20 inches of rain. That's one way to stop the grass from going and a need to mow regularly. fungicide only put a small dent in progress in the front year. I didn't even bother with the back.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensembles continue to advertise the coldest air of the Fall Season to invade the Nation along and East of the Rockies. A One - Two punch of colder air arrives late this week with a second and stronger surge arriving early next week. Look for a chance of snow across portions of the Central/Southern Plains late this week. As a note, Colorado is running way above last year as far as snow pack is concerned. Currently the Colorado Highlands are running about 200% above last year at this time. It took until January last year to reach the current snowfall totals in Colorado. Temperatures across Canada have cooled considerably where temperatures in the NW Territories are as low as -30 Celsius.

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint of 71°F in November. Not what I was looking for - hoping for 70s and dry; even 80s and dry. It feels like last fall or the swamps of south Louisiana out there.

Blue northers to the rescue it is. After Thursdays storms it should be partly sunny to sunny skies. Highs near 60°F.

[Cromagnum]

84 degree high and pea soup in November...

[tireman4]

Seven Day Outlook

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018

.AVIATION...
Areas of dense fog and a mix of LIFR/IFR cigs will prevail this
morning with gradual improvement between 16-18z. VFR cigs will
prevail this aftn as a weak boundary meanders north. The boundary
will also allow for a few showers this morning. Did not mention a
VCSH in the TAFs as prob of occurrence looks low. Fcst soundings
show some potential for skies to clear briefly this evening before
MVFR/IFR ceilings redevelop. Soundings showed some potential for
fog again tonight but winds just off the surface should provide a
bit of mixing and leaned toward a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Patchy to dense fog quickly developed overnight across most of the
local area. A Dense Fog Advisory was issued through 10 AM CDT this
morning for the majority of the area west of I45, including
Houston and Crockett counties.

Tranquil weather conditions expected today. A few isolated
showers could develop particularly over the eastern to
southeastern counties, but no significant rainfall is expected at
the moment. High temperatures in the afternoon will range between
the low to mid 80s.

On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will pass north of our area.
The combination of southwesterly wind flow, available low level
moisture, warm temperatures and higher CAPE values, will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development across the majority of the
area. Southwest winds become west northwest in the afternoon and
then north by late afternoon. Winds become east on Wednesday
night into Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

A strong shortwave trough is expected to amplify across the
central portions of CONUS on Thursday. Thursday night into early
Friday morning, the trough and associated cold front is expected
to move across SE TX. Expect a further increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity, particularly ahead and along the frontal
boundary, as it converges with the moist warm air. Overall PWAT
values in GFS range from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. Weather conditions
will begin to improve by Friday night as drier air settles across
the region. For the weekend into early next week, tranquil
weather conditions with cooler temperatures can be expected.

MARINE...

A weak pressure gradient will remain in place today and a light S-SW
flow will prevail. The gradient will tighten this evening and a
slightly stronger onshore flow is expected before winds again
decrease toward early Wednesday morning. A slow moving cold front
will move into the region on Wednesday night but the front will
remain north of the coastal waters. The front will ooze into the
coastal waters on Thursday morning and winds will become E-NE. A
much stronger cold front will cross the coastal waters on Friday.
Strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected Friday into the
weekend. Small craft advisories will be needed. Tide levels should
remain around 0.5 to 1 foot above normal the next few days with no
impacts to area Gulf facing beaches. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 80 61 69 / 10 10 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 85 71 84 64 73 / 20 10 50 50 60
Galveston (GLS) 79 73 79 69 74 / 20 10 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Montgomery...
Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...24
Aviation/Marine...43

[mcheer23]

Well...the 12z GFS is quite chilly.