NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Nov 19, 2018 12:48 pm

The afternoon ECMWF continues to advertise another impressive late Fall/early Winter cold shot arriving Sunday into next Monday. The Canadian model agrees with the idea of a deep Central/Eastern Upper trough and additional upper level energy poised to cross near our Region after the cold air is established.
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 3:11 pm

I think we can bank on it getting cold, but precipitation I’m not so sure about. Probably would just be overcast with some drizzle around. That’s usually what happens. Heck, that’s what’s happening out there right now.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:36 am

A cool morning across SE TX with temps in the 40s across much of the area. Beautiful weather today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 60s. Expect another round of clouds and rain Wednesday afternoon into early Thanksgiving morning before clearing skies arrive. Some additional showers Friday and partly sunny on Saturday with highs into the low 70s.

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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by tireman4 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:52 am

NWS Houston Thanksgiving Week Temperature Trends
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by Texaspirate11 » Tue Nov 20, 2018 9:02 am

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE
Hope y'all are stuffed and stay warm!
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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Wet & Chilly Wx Returns/Thanksgiving Outl

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:50 am

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Fairly active weather pattern will result in nearly daily changes in the weather for the next several days. No significant weather events appear likely through the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Coastal trough and low has pushed east of the area allowing a much drier air mass to move across SE TX and resulting in clearing skies. Air mass is still fairly cool and even with the sun, only expecting high temperatures today in the lower 60’s. Next upper level disturbance will quickly approach from the SW on Wednesday and yet another coastal trough will form well offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Models have been showing this feature further and further offshore which should keep the most active weather and any threat for strong or severe weather well off the coast. Expect clouds to rapidly increase on Wednesday with showers and an isolated thunderstorms by Wednesday evening over the area. Highest rain chances will be along the coast and offshore where best moisture and strongest lift will be found. System will be fast moving and will see rain ending early on Thursday morning. Post frontal air mass is not very cold, but how quickly the area warms on Thursday will likely depend on how quickly clouds break up. There are some indications that moisture may get trapped in a frontal inversion and linger much of the day which could keep daytime highs on the cooler side in the 50’s and lower 60’s versus near 70 if the sun breaks out earlier in the day.

Another quick moving system on Friday with a slight chance of showers (30-40%) and again on Sunday. Fast movement of the weather systems is not allowing much time for moisture return nor any significant amounts of cold air to move southward. Upper air pattern may buckle some into early next week with the post Sunday cold front having a better push of cold air to knock highs back down into the 50’s/60’s and lows into the 40’s after a brief warm up over the weekend.

Overall pattern is looking very El Nino like and extended seasonal outlooks continue to call for above normal rainfall and near or below normal temperatures for next winter season. This appears to be supported by the developing El Nino conditions in the central Pacific and also a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska which would help to support the idea of frequent cold air intrusions east of the Rockies while moisture streams into TX from the SW out of the Pacific.


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Re: NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

Post by Belmer » Fri Nov 30, 2018 7:57 pm

As we say goodbye to Hurricane season, I find the map interesting in that the southeastern part of the United States was a target zone for tropical systems this year. You'll also notice how the Atlantic cruisers slowly died as they approached the Caribbean... a hostile environment with wind shear the last few years.

This has also marked the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of Hurricane season (Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25). As a result, there were a total of 15 named storms, 8 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes. This was an above average year as NOAA was only predicting 9-13 named storms with 4-7 being Hurricanes and 0-2 becoming Major.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane season, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes and a total of $33.3 billion (2018 USD) in damages.
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