OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Burleson County....heads up. Tornadic supercell headed your way from Lee County
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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don
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It's not that often that we get hook echo supercells around these parts... please be weather aware folks.
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 443 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKSHIRE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KATY AROUND 505 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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mckinne63
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don wrote:It's not that often that we get hook echo supercells around these parts... please be weather aware folks.
Is that why the news has been on since about 3:30pm? They just keeping showing the radar and talking.
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srainhoutx
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Halloween afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Multiple supercells with tornadoes have erupted over the region.

This is a dangerous tornado situation.

Low level outflow boundary remains generally stalled from Texas City to Sugar Land to Sealy to Giddings with several supercells having developed along this boundary in the last hour. Supercell over Fort Bend County has moved into southern and Southeast Harris County while cell ESE of Sealy is heading for western Harris. Low level outflow boundary is maximizing low level shear in a zone from Galveston Bay to Columbus and as NNE moving cells intersect this boundary they are quickly becoming tornadic. The cells are then turning E to ENE and moving just north of the boundary. Back low level wind field north of this boundary will continue to support a tornado threat for supercells lifting ENE across Waller, Austin, Harris, and Liberty Counties.

Tornadoes have been reported so the air mass is very much capable of producing both tornadoes and wind damage.

These cells are also producing extremely heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes or less. Flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern if the low level boundary remains anchored in place and cells continue to fire and move along this feature. Latest radar trends suggest the boundary may be starting to retreat northward which would shift the tornado and flash flood threat north of I-10 in the next hour, but cells along the boundary will also be adding rain cooled air and reinforcing the feature.

Pay attention to warning information and if a warning is issued for your area…seek safety immediately.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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I can really see the shear in the clouds with SE flow underneath and SW flow above.


NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125AC33273E8.TornadoWarning.125AC33278FCTX.SHVSVSSHV.b1dd54b678d2ce914d70b83aa88763ba from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 17:02 EST on 10-31-2018
Effective: 17:02 EST on 10-31-2018
Expires: 17:15 EST on 10-31-2018
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTY...

At 502 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles west of Maud, or 9 miles southwest of New Boston,
moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This dangerous storm will be near...
Maud around 510 PM CDT.
New Boston around 515 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Spring
Hill.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Bowie
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DoctorMu
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Burleson County under a Tornado Warning. That cell is headed toward BCS.

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125AC3327898.TornadoWarning.125AC33284B4TX.HGXSVSHGX.2b2c8dedef395a1f1b336f5fa3d3c8dd from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 17:14 EST on 10-31-2018
Effective: 17:14 EST on 10-31-2018
Expires: 17:45 EST on 10-31-2018
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
BURLESON COUNTY...

At 513 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles south of Caldwell, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.
This dangerous storm will be near...
Snook around 540 PM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lyons.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
LightningBolt
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Thunder is increasing and becoming so very dark but very little wind to speak of...yet.
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srainhoutx
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Rush hour is a nightmare. It appears we are transitioning to a linear squall line event as the cold front pushes SE from the Hill Country
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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hook echo over the Brazos River.
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DoctorMu
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The cold front caught up just in time. We had some impressive swirling winds for a couple of minutes. The squall line forming along the front should have those straight line winds but rotation should ease. Fingers crossed.


Fresh northerly breeze now and steady rain.
Cpv17
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Next storm system coming in around Sunday/Monday could be even stronger than the current one. I have to think the above average sst’s in the western Gulf are helping to aid this.

Image
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Belmer
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Nice break right now... if you have any kiddos, I'd get them out in the next hour or so to try and salvage the little bit of Halloween they can enjoy.

Think the largest tornado threat may be over... however, latest HRRR suggest that the line out west may still be trying to line itself out as it pushes through Houston. Last few runs are showing a few more discreet supercells developing ahead of the cold front later this evening. Certainly don't want to let our guard down.
Blake
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DoctorMu
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That Chappell Hill cell could still rotate...but overall the worst is over.
unome
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still looks ugly to me

Image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759
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Belmer
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EoA: 22z HRRR -

Black circles in image are areas where HRRR is starting to initialize discreet supercells develop ahead and along squall line upon frontal passage.
Attachments
22z HRRR
22z HRRR
Webp.net-resizeimage-8.png (131.55 KiB) Viewed 4655 times
Last edited by Belmer on Wed Oct 31, 2018 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Blake
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srainhoutx
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Front has passed Brenham. Look for the front to arrive in NW Harris County within the hour and nearing Sugarland by 9 PM
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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NWS Houston re-tweet - video from earlier, NW of Katy

https://twitter.com/baldbear87/status/1 ... 0200145920
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srainhoutx
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HGX cancels Tornado Watch for Brazos, Burleson, Houston, Madison Counties. Tornado Watch continues for other Counties in SE Texas
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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unome wrote:still looks ugly to me

Image

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md1604.html

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast TX to Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 416...

Valid 312314Z - 010015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 416 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues ahead of cold front across ww416.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent is spreading across central TX ahead
of progressive short-wave trough. This appears to be aiding frontal
surge as squall line matures along the boundary, advancing southeast
at roughly 25kt. While a few supercells may be embedded along the
maturing squall line, small bow-type structures are more common due
to frontal forcing.

Ahead of the front, a semi-persistent cluster of convection has been
focused across the upper TX Coastal Plain where LLJ appears to be
aiding this activity. Multiple storm mergers are contributing to an
upward evolving cluster that should propagate toward the lower
Sabine River Valley later this evening. While earlier supercell
structures are less discrete, strengthening shear will continue to
support supercells and tornadoes, especially with pre-frontal
storms.

..Darrow.. 10/31/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29239759 33919506 33909245 29249509 29239759
Huge meso forming north of Beaumont.

Some of those mini-cells ahead of the squall line could spin up something weak.
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