OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Latest CPC 6-10 day forecast has cut back on our above average rainfall chances compared to yesterday. I doubt it means much though. These forecast are constantly changing, but one thing that hasn’t been changing is its predictions of above average rainfall and cooler temps for Texas.

Image
spadilly
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:24 pm
Location: SW side
Contact:

Looks like (at this point) Sunday will be the better day to be out at Wings Over Houston this weekend.
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

2018 has been a wet year.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Image

Near Marble Falls. :shock: :o
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Another day similar to yesterday with slight warmer temps and a 30% chance of showers. Radar this morning shows an area of rain N and NE of Houston moving N toward E TX.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-10-18 at 5.37.36 AM.png
Screen Shot 2018-10-18 at 5.37.36 AM.png (403.48 KiB) Viewed 4264 times
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Awesome 56 degrees this morning here in Beaumont! Not too cold and not too hot! High of 67 as the day progresses. Rain currently moving out this morning but unfortunately the clouds and overcast will remain throughout the day. Another moderate but short lived front scheduled for Saturday. Low 50 for lows and mid 60s for highs. What more can you ask for? ...well, a little sunshine to go along with it. Enjoy Beaumont/SETX!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

what causes the spikes on radar & why is it more pronounced on some radars

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comphtml5.html
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
http://storms.meas.ncsu.edu/users/mdparker/radarchive/

***HGX looks particularly "spikey"

*** HGX later addressed this on their Twitter feed: https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1 ... 1970565121

Image
Last edited by unome on Sun Nov 04, 2018 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181515
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1015 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Visible satellite imagery is showing some thinning of clouds.
Could the sun really come out today? Maybe so as it looks like the
thinning of the clouds may be due to some drier air in the
boundary layer that mesoanalyses are not resolving well. Based on
this drier air, rain chances have been updated today with higher
chances off to the SW of a Galveston to Katy line and 20/30 PoPs
NE of that line. Temperatures today look on track but if the sun
does shine through the breaks in clouds then we could get a little
warmer than forecast so look for more adjustments to the forecast
over the next few hours.

Overpeck

&&

.AVIATION...
Impact of drier air mentioned above will be to have MVFR ceilings
become VFR sooner than expected and VFR conditions expected for
much of the afternoon. Ceilings should still develop overnight
with another push of moisture and increase in shower activity.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

AVIATION...
Anticipating gradually improving conditions today as ceilings
continue to slowly lift. Areas of RA/SHRA that are going on now
could persist, but currently think most of the activity will
become isolated by the afternoon. Activity this evening and on
through the overnight hours tomorrow could end up depending on
how much develops near the coast and down south and gradually
works its way into our area. Forecast confidence remains low. 42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A similar active weather pattern remains in place for the second
half of this week, but the heaviest rain is generally expected to
be lower on the Gulf Coast, slide up to the west of our area, then
curl around north of us. This carves out an area of relatively
lighter rain expected for our area, but with potentially heavy
rain possible not far from us, we`ll want to keep a close eye on
conditions. A front this weekend will give us a brief respite, but
look for rain chances to return again next week as winds become
onshore ahead of another front in the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low clouds blanket Southeast Texas again tonight, though satellite
indicates that there is more vertical growth over our area
compared to 24 hours again. Consequently, radar shows some drizzle
and light showers, with the strongest cells over Harris and
Liberty counties. Even here, rain rates are not very significant,
with accumulations generally in the 0.1-0.25 inch range over the
past three hours.

Perhaps most importantly for the early forecast is a weak surface
trough located over the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas and
Mexico, reaching northward to roughly Matagorda Bay. It will
slowly drift towards the coast today, and will eventually become
an important piece of the puzzle.

But...until then...look for the current band of light showers to
slowly make its way up to the northwest through the morning,
exiting our area around mid-day or early afternoon. In the
meantime, showers and storms will continue to increase over the
Gulf, particularly off of Matagorda Bay. Skies will remain
overcast for most, though a few breaks here and there could break
through this afternoon around and east of I-45. This should help
high temperatures drift up another few degrees over the day
before.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The Gulf surface trough will continue to drift towards the coast
through the rest of the short term forecast, and rains - at times
heavy - will continue along the coast, but mostly to the south and
west of our area. If anyone is going to see heavier rain, the best
shot would be down around Matagorda Bay. That said, the 00Z
Canadian does paint a somewhat different scenario. Rather than
come onshore with the heaviest rains down towards Corpus Christi,
it does this more around Matagorda Bay, and then scrapes the
heavier rain right up our area, just a bit west of Houston,
rather than farther to the west over Central Texas. I think the
lighter rainfall scenario is much more likely, but the CMC does
indicate that we can`t sleep on the next few days, either.

This is a setup in which widespread rain is not terribly high,
but in such a moist environment with relative weak steering flow,
isolated totals could get quite high. Indeed, the TTU WRF has
accumulated totals through Saturday in excess of 5 inches over the
Gulf off of Corpus, while the highest totals out of HREF members
over the water are in the 10-15 inch range. In short...while I
don`t expect anyone to see a foot of rain, I also can`t entirely
rule out that a spot in, say, Jackson or Matagorda County might
see significant amounts of rain. It may not be to the point that
you go to Plan B for the weekend right now, but it would be a
very good idea to have a backup plan ready to go...just in case.

Friday should be warmer, with spots up around College Station
and Crockett reaching to around 70 degrees, while 80 degrees could
be seen right on the coast. Saturday`s temperatures will depend
strongly on the timing of a cold front. For now, the forecast is
for the front to come through early enough to keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler on Saturday than Friday. But...delay that front
by a few hours, and we should see at least a repeat of Friday`s
temperatures, and could even get warmer.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The front should be pretty effective at scouring out deep
moisture, with precipitable water for most of the area falling
around or below one inch. The exception would be in the southwest
nearer Matagorda Bay, which may hold on to more moisture. At the
surface, dewpoints look to fall into the mid-40s in Houston
County on Sunday and to around 60 degrees around Palacios. As you
would expect, rain chances should then also largely diminish
Saturday night through Sunday night.

This respite from our current active pattern will be brief,
however. Flow should turn back to onshore early next week ahead of
a midweek front. Along with that, rain chances will come back up.
Lots of details to be worked out here, and will probably heavily
influence the details of our weather next week. Some of this
depends on tropical activity in the East Pacific. For example -
the GFS sucks up the remnants of a tropical cyclone through
Mexico, and helps fuel the deepening of a low that forms over West
Texas and ejects to the northwest, bringing a fairly robust cold
front through Southeast Texas. The Euro is more diffuse with this
idea - it still develops a weak trough and moves it along this
track, but the stronger low comes just off the coast, and scrapes
over our Gulf waters with some significant rainfall. Either way,
pretty good confidence that temperatures will be held in check
deeper into next week, but less confidence in potential for
heavier rainfall and/or severe weather. As SPC so lovingly puts
it, "Predictability Too Low".

MARINE...

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds, elevated seas
and the potential for dangerous rip currents should
persist through the end of the week as the pressure
gradient remains tight, and over the weekend with the
passage of another cold front. Caution flags and/or Small
Craft Advisories will continue to be needed, and Coastal
Flood Advisories will be possible for occasionally
elevated water levels around high tide times. Expect to
see periods of rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms,
mainly through Saturday night. 42

HYDROLOGY...

Barring enough rainfall to raise levels again, Bedias Creek is at
flood stage and will continue to fall. Riverside is around its
crest in moderate flood stage, and (again barring more significant
rainfall) should begin falling today. Unfortunately, it should
take several days before it comes out of flood.

On the downside, Gages are rising on the Trinity River downstream
of Lake Livingston. Goodrich is in moderate flood, and is expected
to slowly, but steadily rise into major flood. Liberty is in a
similar situation. Romayor and Moss Bluff are not yet in flood
stage, but is rising and is expected to reach near (Romayor) or
over (Moss Bluff) flood stage in the next day or two. Future rises
at all of these sites will depend not just on rainfall, but on
water that will be routed downstream from upper portions of the
river and Lake Livingston.

CLIMATE...

For the second day in a row, College Station and both Houston
climate sites (Bush and Hobby) have set record cold maximum
temperatures. Today, we should see temperatures rise enough at
Houston (and today`s record cold max takes a dive) that those two
records should be safe, even though temps still look a good 5-10
degrees below normal. College Station, however, may be a closer
call. Explicitly, CLL has a forecast high of 64 with a record of
60. However, it`s close enough with potential rain that rising
above that 60 degree benchmark is not a sure thing. We should
break the record string today, but we may still be watching the
College Station thermometer intently.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 59 71 58 68 / 70 40 50 50 50
Houston (IAH) 72 63 78 64 73 / 30 20 50 50 40
Galveston (GLS) 75 73 79 72 76 / 30 40 60 60 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...39
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Rain and thunderstorms moving onshore along the Middle TX Coast this morning. A 40% chance of rain across the Houston-Galveston areas today along with temps in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday still looks to be partly sunny with highs in the low 70s behind the next cool front.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-10-19 at 5.17.08 AM.png
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Weather is SO confusing...1 week they say its shaping up to be a much colder winter for our area, and they've been saying that...then you wake up one day (this morning) and they say it's going to be warmer than average winter.....maybe I just dont understand weather anymore...
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

snowman65 wrote:Weather is SO confusing...1 week they say its shaping up to be a much colder winter for our area, and they've been saying that...then you wake up one day (this morning) and they say it's going to be warmer than average winter.....maybe I just dont understand weather anymore...

Because it’s different organizations, public and private, that issue different forecasts. It’s not the weather, it’s the person.

The overwhelming majority of forecasts say colder, and the one saying warm, well I'm skeptical because they are rarely right in their long range forecasts.

The NOAA is a joke on long term forecasting recently.

Follow the trends and look at analogs.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

snowman65 wrote:Weather is SO confusing...1 week they say its shaping up to be a much colder winter for our area, and they've been saying that...then you wake up one day (this morning) and they say it's going to be warmer than average winter.....maybe I just dont understand weather anymore...
The ever so fluidity of our atmosphere is what keeps meteorologist, like myself, love it even more -- to try and better our science so decades from now we can hopefully give a 3-4 month outlook and be more "right" than just 'guessing' so to speak based on what the teleconnections we see (though in large part that is what is helpful). There are many regions we need to observe around the world to forecast what could come our way down the road. A good place to start ideally is out in the Central/Eastern Pacific regarding SSTs aka: El Nino/La Nina.

With that said, just the annual outlooks you see are given you that 'confusion'. Farmers Almanac gives our area a 'Stinging Cold, Average Precipitation' outlook while the recently released NOAA Outlook gives our area a 33-40% of above normal temperatures with above average Precipitation. Both outlooks agree on higher than average precipitation, due to the ongoing likelihood of a weak/moderate El Nino forecasted to develop. As for temperature... we'll have to just play that one out, my hunch is we will likely see an early cool season for fall, with near average to slightly above average temps come December, making it seem like a 'warm' winter due to having a strong fall cool spell. However, from past history... both Outlooks haven't really been the most accurate in years past, so always take those outlooks with a grain of salt. As others have alluded to, I'm seeing some good signs of an unsettled weather pattern and much below average temperatures as we close out October and roll into November. Nothing indicates to me of any above average temperatures for at least the next 3-4 weeks.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I’m not sure if anyone has said it yet, but I’ll go out on a limb on this and say that I do believe SETX has an above average chance at seeing some wintry weather this winter. There’s just too many signs to ignore for this to happen at this point, especially if we end up getting a Modoki El Niño. If we can get a -EPO, -AO, and a -NAO then we’ll be in for some fun.
User avatar
GBinGrimes
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
Location: Anderson, TX
Contact:

For the NOAA, the last several years of winter long range forecasts have not been correct, at least in my perception. But, the more that I pay attention to weather the more it seems like forecasting is akin to taking a jigsaw puzzle, throwing all the pieces in the air and seeing if they land as correctly in place as possible. There are just too many fluid factors to obtain 100 percent certainty.

The pro mets that have studied this for YEARS and have lived it...man do I have MASSIVE respect for y'all. It is also greatly appreciated that they can speak to us in this forum in ways that novices and weather lovers can understand. That is what keeps me involved here because it allows me to learn while following the churning ocean of air and moisture that we are a part of every singe day.

BTW...I will cast my vote for hoping for a couple of rounds of wintery mischief and enough cold to zap the mosquitos but not freeze pipes.

Have a great weekend everyone!
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Thanks for all the info on my comments. I trust the information in this forum more than any other source. We are LUCKY to have the pro mets that spend their time to update this forum and give us their insight and wisdom. I don't know of any other region in the US that has something like this so I'm personally sending a huge THANK YOU to all of you. Through all of the storms, floods, hurricanes, icy roads, etc, there's no telling how many lives you have saved just from the updates on this forum. The weather is forever changing and yall do an amazing job keep us ordinary folks up to date.
texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Have lived in Texas for nearly 4 decades, not sure if I've ever seen this many rainy days in central Texas. August was brutally hot with 23 days above 100 degrees, and only one rain event. September started off with a 100 degree day, then the rains came on Sept. 2nd.

Over the next 48 days (Sept. 2nd to Oct. 18th) Camp Mabry in ATX has recorded moisture in 37 of those days.

September had only 3 days of 1" or more (1.28, 1.35, 1.65) Total rain for September was 7.96 inches.
October has only had 2 days of 1" or more (1.48, 1.65) Current total rain for October is 6.37 inches.

There's rain in the forecast for the next 7 days. As October ends, Austin might see rain in 80% of the time over a 2 month period. Would be curious to know if that's ever happened. Can maybe see it happening in Feb/Mar time period, but not Sept/Oct.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

I’m just glad it warmed back up a little. The last few days were a bit too chilly for me. No fun doing baseball practice when it’s in the 50’s and drizzly.
User avatar
GBinGrimes
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
Location: Anderson, TX
Contact:

Baseball practice in October with 50's and drizzly will feel like high summer come February baseball practice time. :D
sau27
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:04 am
Location: Bellaire
Contact:

Not sure if anyone has noticed yet but some of the meso-models (the HRRR in particular) have started to raise an eyebrow for this evening.
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

sau27 wrote:Not sure if anyone has noticed yet but some of the meso-models (the HRRR in particular) have started to raise an eyebrow for this evening.
Yep I saw that as well. Not only this evening, but possibly tomorrow as well.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 75 guests