SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Soggy pattern continues over the area

Another weak cold front will move into SE TX this afternoon and evening and likely progress all the way to the coast and even offshore later tonight into Thursday. Ahead of this boundary tropical moisture has pooled resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning over the region. As the frontal boundary moves into the moist and unstable air mass this afternoon expect to see numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over the area and move from NW to SE. Storm motions should be on the order of 10-15mph which will help negate any significant flooding concerns, but would not be surprised to see some areas pick up a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall under the stronger cells.

With the front expected to push offshore early Thursday, a slightly drier air mass will move into the region. Think clouds will linger behind the boundary so it will be cooler on Thursday, but more due to the cloud cover and showers than any significant cold air advection. A fairly strong short wave in the WNW flow aloft approaches the area on Friday and this feature will likely bring the front back northward as a warm front. Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the warm front moves into the area and lift from the short wave approaches. Could see some heavy rainfall on Friday as these features combine over the region.

Tropical air mass will return over the weekend with daily rain chances of 30-50% along the seabreeze each afternoon.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djmike
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Looking at my rain gauge, I have over one foot of rain for the month of September!! :o
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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snowman65
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We have flooded streets with water entering cars here in Orange. It just rains every day...with no end in sight.
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Texaspirate11
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Beginning to storm down here

121 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GALVESTON...SOUTHWESTERN
CHAMBERS...NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Greater Hobby Area to Santa Fe. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Baytown, Texas City, Friendswood, La
Porte, Deer Park, Alvin, Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque, Santa
Fe, Seabrook, Galena Park, Webster, Hitchcock, Beach City, Kemah and
South Belt / Ellington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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CrashTestDummy
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Just got done with that line that's progressing toward Galveston Bay. We got .75" of rain from that. Galveston Bay is under a Special Marine Warning, and rightly-so. It got DARK here, and I could barely see the street in front of my house when that line passed. Galveston Bay is going to get filled up!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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srainhoutx
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The Cold Front is progressing nicely and should clear Austin/San Antonio shortly. Temperature departures from normal around Dallas and the N Central Texas Region is running about 25F below normal where upper 50's to low 60's are common.
Attachments
09262018 1952Z CODGOES16-subregional-Texas.02.20180926.195217-over=map-bars=.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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It's pouring in College Station. Green lawns and foliage (for now). Picked up a couple of bags of fungicide.


The cold front is tantalizingly close now, around Cameron. About at 15° drop in temps and lower DPs. Come to poppa!
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:The Cold Front is progressing nicely and should clear Austin/San Antonio shortly. Temperature departures from normal around Dallas and the N Central Texas Region is running about 25F below normal where upper 50's to low 60's are common.
So the models a week ago weren't that far off. The front will fizzle/reverse a little earlier, but a taste of actual Fall possible at least for NW counties (fingers crossed) soon.
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srainhoutx
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Keep an eye on these storms as HGX has detected some rotation aloft...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-FORT BEND TX-AUSTIN TX-
318 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH
CENTRAL WHARTON...SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 317 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAGLE LAKE, MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE LAKE, EAST BERNARD, WALLIS AND HUNGERFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND MAY INTENSIFY, SO BE
CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Near record territory for the number of days were rainfall was measured at all 4 HGX Official Sites...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...
BEGINNING TO OBSERVE CLUSTERING CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW ROUGHLY PARALLELING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE PUTTING DOWN A GOOD
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF HOURLY RAINFALL, THEIR NEAR 30 MPH
SPEED TO THE NORTHEAST HAS AIDED IN HOLDING BACK ANY LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD FLOODING. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE DISPLAYING DECENT
BOUTS OF CG LIGHTNING AND TIGHT Z GRADIENTS THAT COULD BE
INDICATIVE OF NEAR 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS. THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
INTO EVENING'S STORM ACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL LIFT WITH SECONDARY ASSISTANCE FROM UPPER DIFFULENCE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO CONSIDERED AN
IMPETUS TO THIS SPIKE IN CELLULAR STRENGTH. EXPECTING TSRA TO
BETTER FILL IN OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR WERE DISPOSABLE,
AM LEANING TOWARDS ITS 19Z SOLUTION OF TAKING THESE NORTHERN
DISCRETE CELLS INTO THE METRO AREA BY 7 OR 8 PM TONIGHT.
EXPERIENCE WOULD STATE THAT, AS THESE DISCRETE CELLS MERGE
TOGETHER AND COALESCE THEIR OWN COLD POOL, A QLCS COULD DEVELOP
AND BLOW THROUGH THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KNOTS,
WEAK TORNADOES AND NUISANCE FLOODING WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP A
QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES. DUE TO THE FRONTAL FORCING AND POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE COLD POOL SOUTHERN-PROPAGATION, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
IS LOW END "GOOD" WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN LOCALLY HIGHER
THAN 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IF EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY STORM MOTION SLOWS TO UNDER 20 KNOTS. WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF THE MESOCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.

KEEPING POPS AT LEAST FLIP-OF-A-COIN CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD/
MARINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER LEVEL FOCUS
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN A NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR MASS.
INTERIOR RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH TOMORROW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FRONT INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REGION STAYS WITHIN A
WEAK SHEAR ZONE OR CHANNEL OF LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER
RIDGES POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
(BERMUDA HIGH). THUS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMO AND MOISTURE
PROFILE, ONE CAN EXPECT RETURN PERIODS OF MAINLY EARLY DAY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DISCRETE STORM CELLS
GENERALLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. OR, IN OTHER
WORDS, UPPER RIDGING IS NOT FORECAST TO COMPLETELY TAKE OVER AS
EAST TEXAS FALLS ON THE WEAKER SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN STATE RIDGING. THE MID TERM FORECAST (FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY) LOOK MORE WET THAN THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY ONWARD) BUT
CERTAINLY NO WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO DROP ANOTHER 1
TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THIS OVERCAST, WET
PATTERN; MORNING READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S/UPPER 70S AT COAST WITH
AFTERNOONS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S (WITH DAYTIME RAIN) TO
AROUND 90 F (WITHOUT RAIN). 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE RAIN CONTINUES AND THEREFORE IS PLACING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER
ON THE PRECIPICE OF FALLING INTO RECORD TERRITORY. SINCE IAH AND
CLL RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY, THEY HAVE TIED THEIR ALL
TIME MOST DAYS WITH RAINFALL IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AT 15
DAYS...IF WE RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.01" AT EITHER ONE OF THOSE SITES
TOMORROW, THEN 16 DAYS WILL BE THE NEW SEPTEMBER RECORD. HOBBY IS
JUST A DAY BEHIND AT 17 DAYS WITH GALVESTON'S RECORD AT 20 DAYS.
SO, WITH ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF RAIN FORECAST FOR THE AREA, WE ARE
SAYING THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALL 4 OFFICIAL SITES COULD SET A NEW
'NUMBER OF DAYS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL' RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER.
31
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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