SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[srainhoutx]

As of the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC is giving the remnants of Isaac a 20%/20% chance of redevelopment in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly the. 12Z. Experimental Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have . increased along the Texas Coast next week during the 120 hour time frame to a 50 to 60 % chance of redevelopment. Regardless, increasing rainfall chances may increase across our Region. mid next week. We will closely monitor as we've had very wet month across Coastal Texas.

[Katdaddy]

Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers or thunderstorms the next few days. Rain and thunderstorm chances ramp back up for the end of the week.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like rain chance will slowly ramp up beginning Thursday into the weekend as a weakness over Texas combined with some deeper tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Isaac currently just S of Jamaica enter the Gulf and generally head WNW across the Western Gulf during the coming weekend. No redevelopment is expected and the NHC only gives the remnants of Isaac 10%/10% of redeveloping. We are not expecting rainfall to be as heavy as what some of our areas saw last week with 95L at this time. I continue to search for that 1st legit Fall Cold Front, but so far nothing is showing up on the horizon.

[jasons2k]

As of the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC is giving the remnants of Isaac a 20%/20% chance of redevelopment in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly the. 12Z. Experimental Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have . increased along the Texas Coast next week during the 120 hour time frame to a 50 to 60 % chance of redevelopment. Regardless, increasing rainfall chances may increase across our Region. mid next week. We will closely monitor as we've had very wet month across Coastal Texas.

And look at what's behind it in the Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

As of the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC is giving the remnants of Isaac a 20%/20% chance of redevelopment in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly the. 12Z. Experimental Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have . increased along the Texas Coast next week during the 120 hour time frame to a 50 to 60 % chance of redevelopment. Regardless, increasing rainfall chances may increase across our Region. mid next week. We will closely monitor as we've had very wet month across Coastal Texas.

And look at what's behind it in the Caribbean...

What I'm watching is a big SAL outbreak over the Atlantic arriving in the Eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. There is a very strong tropical wave over Central Africa and some of the very long range guidance suggest another Caribbean Cruiser nearing the Yucatan/Southern Gulf around the end of September. We will be watching as the secondary Peak will be approaching and virtually all of our reliable guidance suggests the MJO may become very favorable as September ends and October begins.

[tireman4]

Just a friendly reminder about dewpoints...

[DoctorMu]

Just a friendly reminder about dewpoints...

Same 'ol. Need some Fall now on the dewpoints!

The "cooler" temps and clouds and rain last week were OK for me though.

[jasons2k]

The dew point is so important for a number of reasons. And yet there was an article in the Houston Chronicle several years ago about the local TV stations dropping it from their broadcasts because people don’t know what it is. Dumbing down of society.

[DoctorMu]

The dew point is so important for a number of reasons. And yet there was an article in the Houston Chronicle several years ago about the local TV stations dropping it from their broadcasts because people don’t know what it is. Dumbing down of society.

Yeah, IDC about "humidity." The general public thinks it's always 90% in the South during the day - all day and night anyway. It's all about the wet bulb and dew point. Just some dew points in the 60s in the evening and a slight breeze would be refreshing!

I noticed it's not always upfront on TWC (without a click or two), or the dreaded Accuweather, Wunderground maps and of course NOAA provide the full monty of meteorological conditions. Our local KBTX still includes the dew point on their front page (a muggy 72° DP still - this gets old after Sept 15th).

Ruh roh - I noticed that KHOU just has "feels like" and not dew point. Their website platform looks to be more iPhone friendly than KBTX. Smart phones seem to have the opposite effect on their users!

[Ptarmigan]

Just a friendly reminder about dewpoints...

Dew points is what we really feel. Some places have high humidity, yet they do not feel humid because they are cooler like the Pacific Northwest.

[Katdaddy]

A mostly sunny dry and hot day across SE TX. A transition back to tropical moisture and rainfall beginning Thursday through Saturday. Good news. What’s left of Isaac in the NW Caribbean has 0% chance of re-development and will drift slowly across the NW Caribbean the next several days.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensembles are "hinting" our first Fall Cold Front may arrive around the very end of September.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The overnight Ensembles are "hinting" our first Fall Cold Front may arrive around the very end of September.

Saw that late yesterday. Lows in the 50s/low 60s and highs in the low 70s/mid 70s

[snowman65]

The overnight Ensembles are "hinting" our first Fall Cold Front may arrive around the very end of September.

Saw that late yesterday. Lows in the 50s/low 60s and highs in the low 70s/mid 70s

Saw that about 3 days ago, then went away, and now it's back...hopefully it stays this time.

[Texaspirate11]

well i bet october 3rd....and so far am winning the 2018 hurricane bet.
i'm good. LOL....

[brooksgarner]

As of Noon, this Tuesday 9/18/18 .... The NHC has stopped tracking the, "0% region", removing the yellow hatch area ... But, storms there continue to fire around the wave... Hopefully the wind shear continues to do its job to end this thing... Tracking high PWATs coming our way, to SETX, Thursday-Sunday ... then the stalled front next week near the coast = more rain.

[srainhoutx]

I am starting to see more "hints" of the pattern changing as the end of September nears. The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests a big Alaska Ridge developing with a deepening trough across the Intermountain West and the Great Lakes. Roll forward to the Day 11+ Analogs and we see the ensembles carving out that Central trough into the Southern Plains suggesting some of that colder Canadian air will filter South into our neck of the woods. Also, it looks rather wet as September ends and October begins. We also will need to monitor the Eastern Pacific as October is the month when Tropical Cyclones begin to re curve back toward the Baja Peninsula bringing their flooding rainfall that often times leads to heavy rainfall events across Texas including SE Texas. It looks like we a transitioning into a Fall Pattern.

[DoctorMu]

Just a friendly reminder about dewpoints...

Dew points is what we really feel. Some places have high humidity, yet they do not feel humid because they are cooler like the Pacific Northwest.

The brain interprets lack of cooling and during in the nasal packages and non-evaporating sweat on the skin as the air "feeling" thicker and more humid...even through the air is actually less dense, because water vapor is 18 g/mole and dry air (N2 and O2) averages 29 g/mole. (a mole - quantity of air molecules occupies 22.4 liters at sea level).

Yes - Dewpoint is the primary determinant.

[DoctorMu]

I am starting to see more "hints" of the pattern changing as the end of September nears. The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests a big Alaska Ridge developing with a deepening trough across the Intermountain West and the Great Lakes. Roll forward to the Day 11+ Analogs and we see the ensembles carving out that Central trough into the Southern Plains suggesting some of that colder Canadian air will filter South into our neck of the woods. Also, it looks rather wet as September ends and October begins. We also will need to monitor the Eastern Pacific as October is the month when Tropical Cyclones begin to re curve back toward the Baja Peninsula bringing their flooding rainfall that often times leads to heavy rainfall events across Texas including SE Texas. It looks like we a transitioning into a Fall Pattern.

09182018 610temp_new.gif

09182018 814temp_new.gif

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09182018 Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Need a freakin' cold front!

[srainhoutx]

Need a freakin' cold front!

Fingers crossed! Bow season starts the 29th. Whitetail Deer should start the early rut...