djmike wrote:Since Monday, I've gotten 3.64" here in Beaumont and with 95's bands nearing shore, I'll probably add another 1-2" hopefully before we start drying out. It does seem though that it doesn't matter if we've gotten 10" in one week, after 5 days of sunshine and heat, plants, grass and trees always seem to be drooping again. I've notice this a LOT this summer. Anyone else notice this?
jasons wrote:They've been saying all week that there would be PLENTY of juicy 2.0"+ high PWAT air through the weekend, and now suddenly I wake-up to dry air chocking us off. I don't get it....but it is what it is I guess...
Good. We need a break for a week or two.
Now now...last time you said that I didn’t get a decent rain for two months.
I actually haven’t had that much this week. I could use an inch or two before we dry out again. It’s been really nice seeing everything stay green for a change. It’s almost like....Florida...
Are there any areas that are that dry? I'm south of Pearland and am so waterlogged my yard is just fungus. I have so many mushrooms I swear a plumber in a red suit was running around.
Cromagnum wrote:Are there any areas that are that dry? I'm south of Pearland and am so waterlogged my yard is just fungus. I have so many mushrooms I swear a plumber in a red suit was running around.
I wouldn't call it "dry" up here, but it may be dry in places north of here in DoctorMu's and Kludge's back yards. We haven't had nearly as much rain as folks along the coast and south of I-10 have...
College Station received a nice downpour yesterday and I believe the day before. Our county road in Grimes is a muddy mess and pastures are green. We're not dry....at the moment!
95L, while small, certainly looks more organized today. The low cloud movement indicates a closed low has formed. Also, you can see the cirrus is fanning out in all directions from the convection, indicating that shear has finally dropped. I think it still has a good chance of being declared a depression or a TS. It sure is pretty far south though.
sambucol wrote:I’ve some questions and hope you all can help me with them:
1. Does it appear 95L will get organized prior to landfall?
2. When will the system make landfall and where?
3. What kind of weather conditions can we expect in our area (I’m in Baytown) from 95?
Thank you!!
1. Right now it's a coin flip.
2. Mid day Friday into the evening.
3. Off and on bands of showers.
Thank you Scott. Friend is trying to decide whether to open a walk in clinic Friday night or not depending on whether the rains will be flooding type of rains. Is that a potential problem or more like a probable problem? Thank you.
Quick Isaac question. I know he is a good week out and has a long way to travel, but if someone was trying to think ahead (bedridden family member, management of a business) when would you turn your attention to this besides just monitoring. Thanks guys. Y'all are always so knowledgeable.
cisa wrote:Quick Isaac question. I know he is a good week out and has a long way to travel, but if someone was trying to think ahead (bedridden family member, management of a business) when would you turn your attention to this besides just monitoring. Thanks guys. Y'all are always so knowledgeable.
There is no harm in paying attention to it starting now. I will be! But I am a weather nerd so I can't help it. I would say check in Sunday/Monday and see whats going on with Isaac and go from there. It's still very far away from the GoM.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 PM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018
.AVIATION...
Forecast of persistence has been tough to beat, so considering the
same general wx pattern will continue this fcst cycle, we`ll continue
to go that route w/ TAFs. Look for scattered activity to develop
inland in the next few hours w/ heating. This`ll diminish during
the evening followed by redevelopment near the coast and offshore
overnight. Outside of precip, ceilings have generally improved
back into MVFR/VFR territory during the day and then back down to
MVFR/IFR overnight. 47
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT Thu Sep 13 2018/
UPDATE...Waves of light to moderate rainfall continue to push
onshore this morning, and so far we haven`t seen any tremendous
rain rates. We will maintain the Flash Flood Watch through this
afternoon however as more rainfall is expected to move onshore and
conditions are already very saturated. Otherwise, no major
changes to the forecast this morning. 11
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Southern Liberty.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
So the 2pm graphic has been updated. 95 looks very close to land and South, the shaded area for track/development is almost due northward. Does that mean NHC is thinking a more northerly turn or still an extreme south Texas arrival? I would have thought the shaded area would be pointing towards south Texas.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, approaching the North Carolina coast, on newly downgraded
Tropical Storm Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on
Tropical Storm Isaac, located near the Lesser Antilles, and on
Subtropical Storm Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.
1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Several of the mesoscale models have 95L riding along the coast and making landfall on the middle Texas coast, maybe that's why they have that area shaded.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, approaching the North Carolina coast, on newly downgraded
Tropical Storm Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on
Tropical Storm Isaac, located near the Lesser Antilles, and on
Subtropical Storm Joyce, located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.
1. A weak low pressure center has formed a couple of hundred miles
east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms in association with this system have become more
numerous today. While upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development of a tropical depression, the system only has about a
day before it reaches the western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the
low. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and Texas on Friday
and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the progress of this
system, and refer to products from their local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
