SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Cromagnum]

Twitter is ugly this morning. Lots of people angry at the media for "hyping" up Florence because a gigantic cat 2 storm is somehow not big deal now.

[stormlover]

Oh it’s a big deal it’s like ike

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z low position from Levi's site and the GOES 16 Night time Microphysics channel suggest there likely is a broad surface low a little N and W of the 06Z position. I checked buoy data and there are SW winds in the Bay of Campeche that suggests the weak low is present.

[srainhoutx]

For anyone you may know along the SC/NC Coast that may be doubting what a CAT 2 Hurricane can do, I suggest you share the radar image of Ike making landfall 10 years ago...

[Scott747]

Oh it’s a big deal it’s like ike

Not even close and I'm not trying to downplay Flo, but Ike was twice the size of Florence.

[Cromagnum]

Oh it’s a big deal it’s like ike

Not even close and I'm not trying to downplay Flo, but Ike was twice the size of Florence.

Might need to fact check that one. Florence is pretty damn big.

[davidiowx]

Oh it’s a big deal it’s like ike

Not even close and I'm not trying to downplay Flo, but Ike was twice the size of Florence.

Ike was not twice the size of Florence. From what I just looked up online, because I was curious too, Ike was about 500 miles wide while Florence is about 410 miles wide. If anyone is downplaying Florence they are out of their minds.

[Scott747]

Oh it’s a big deal it’s like ike

Not even close and I'm not trying to downplay Flo, but Ike was twice the size of Florence.

Might need to fact check that one. Florence is pretty damn big.

Ike had hurricane force winds 120 miles from the center v. 80 for Flo.

Ike had tropical storm force winds 275 miles from the center v. 195 for Flo.

'twice the size' is semantics.

Ike was in a different league.

[sambucol]

I’ve some questions and hope you all can help me with them:

1. Does it appear 95L will get organized prior to landfall?

2. When will the system make landfall and where?

3. What kind of weather conditions can we expect in our area (I’m in Baytown) from 95?

Thank you!!

[Scott747]

Here's some more introspective on the size of Ike. Granted that the orientation of the gulf is a product of how extensive the warnings were...

At one time there were hurricane warnings from baffin bay to Morgan city and tropical storm warnings that further covered from south of baffin bay to the Mississippi/Bama border including New Orleans.

Let that sink in for a minute....

Virtually the entire Texas coast to the Mississippi/Bama border was under a warning.

[Scott747]

I’ve some questions and hope you all can help me with them:

1. Does it appear 95L will get organized prior to landfall?

2. When will the system make landfall and where?

3. What kind of weather conditions can we expect in our area (I’m in Baytown) from 95?

Thank you!!

1. Right now it's a coin flip.

2. Mid day Friday into the evening.

3. Off and on bands of showers.

[Texaspirate11]

Here is a great article on Florence

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... 47e53e782c

[Texashawk]

Why does the rain only make it inland a little ways before dying off? Been doing that since yesterday from the coast - looks like a healthy band comes in and then disintegrates before reaching 20 miles in!

[srainhoutx]

Just ran a 200 frame IR loop for 95L. Motion is NW around 10 MPH. Extrapolated forward that would place what appears to be the broad weak low onshore somewhere along the Middle Texas Coast. Understand that the outer fringe's of storms are already impacting our Coastal Counties. Also notice all the dry air in NE Mexico and most of Texas except our Coastal Counties in our Region.

[jasons2k]

They've been saying all week that there would be PLENTY of juicy 2.0"+ high PWAT air through the weekend, and now suddenly I wake-up to dry air chocking us off. I don't get it....but it is what it is I guess...

[srainhoutx]

[Cromagnum]

They've been saying all week that there would be PLENTY of juicy 2.0"+ high PWAT air through the weekend, and now suddenly I wake-up to dry air chocking us off. I don't get it....but it is what it is I guess...

Good. We need a break for a week or two.

[jasons2k]

They've been saying all week that there would be PLENTY of juicy 2.0"+ high PWAT air through the weekend, and now suddenly I wake-up to dry air chocking us off. I don't get it....but it is what it is I guess...

Good. We need a break for a week or two.

Now now...last time you said that I didn’t get a decent rain for two months.

I actually haven’t had that much this week. I could use an inch or two before we dry out again. It’s been really nice seeing everything stay green for a change. It’s almost like....Florida...

[Texaspirate11]

we are getting plenty of rain down here by the bay.

[djmike]

Since Monday, I've gotten 3.64" here in Beaumont and with 95's bands nearing shore, I'll probably add another 1-2" hopefully before we start drying out. It does seem though that it doesn't matter if we've gotten 10" in one week, after 5 days of sunshine and heat, plants, grass and trees always seem to be drooping again. I've notice this a LOT this summer. Anyone else notice this?