SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC245-031400-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0033.180903T1031Z-180903T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
531 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
North central Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 900 AM CDT.

* At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. 2 to 4 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3015 9414 3013 9408 3011 9407 3010 9409
3008 9409 3008 9405 3006 9404 3007 9403
3004 9404 3002 9403 2993 9413 3006 9423

$$

Landreneau
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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So far at 545 am 1 high water rescue has taken place here in Beaumont. Im sure more to come. A band of heavy rain looks to be over Beaumont aport Arthur area agin in the next 20 min.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Andrew
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djmike wrote:So far at 545 am 1 high water rescue has taken place here in Beaumont. Im sure more to come. A band of heavy rain looks to be over Beaumont aport Arthur area agin in the next 20 min.
Yea, Beaumont is going to be under the gun for much of the morning. Stay safe
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Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS...

Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Stewart

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Labor Day morning briefing from Jeff:

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have formed this morning along the coast where surface convergence boundary has become established. Rainfall in the last 6 hours of 7.76 inches at HWY 124 and the Intracoastal Canal in far eastern Chambers County shows the potential of this air mass in place.

With that said, development of the storms along the coast is helping to intercept inflowing Gulf moisture and will likely maintain the heaviest rains near the coastline for the next few hours. New cells are starting to develop further inland, but these cells are not overly organized and storm motions this morning have been fairly decent from the west to the east.

Overall think the flash flood threat is confined to the coastal counties and really right along the beaches for this morning with more scattered activity inland through the day.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches is possible with isolated totals of up to 5 inches especially along the coast from Bolivar SW to near Freeport.

Should see a gradual decrease in activity by mid to late afternoon and then redevelopment overnight across the area again as very high moisture levels remain in place.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Definitely impressed how fast Gordon intensified. Still dealing with shear though to the southwest. Let's see if conditions become anymore favorable as it progresses to the northwest.
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Andrew wrote:Definitely impressed how fast Gordon intensified. Still dealing with shear though to the southwest. Let's see if conditions become anymore favorable as it progresses to the northwest.

I've seen that part of S Florida do some strange things with TC's. Flat land, the influence of the Everglades among others can create frictional inflow and close off and even strengthen a TC just as it did with Katrina in 2005. Inspecting GOES 16, the Ridge still looks rather stout back to Arkansas this morning and after looking over the 06 track guidance, it appears there are two camps after landfall. The lesser is NW and then a turn to the NE while the greater amount of tracking guidance is NW to WNW after landfall suggesting there is some debate in the model just how strong that Ridge may actual be come Wednesday/Thursday. It would probably be wise to keep a keen eye of Gordon as it enters the Gulf and until it is inland and dissipated.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
743 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT.

* AT 741 AM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY. ALMOST 9.00 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE GAGE
AT THE GALVESTON INTERCOASTAL WATER WAY AT HIGHWAY 124 IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY IN THE LAST 7 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GALVESTON CAUSEWAY, GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END, TEXAS CITY, LA
MARQUE, HITCHCOCK, SURFSIDE BEACH, GALVESTON PIER 21, BAYOU VISTA,
OYSTER CREEK, JAMAICA BEACH, TIKI ISLAND, HIGH ISLAND, SCHOLES
FIELD, PORT BOLIVAR, OFFATTS BAYOU, GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER,
PELICAN ISLAND, GALVESTON STATE PARK, CRYSTAL BEACH AND
SCHLITTERBAHN.
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff regarding newly named TS Gordon:

Tropical storm forms over the upper FL Keys and S FL

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the US Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA to the FL/AL state line as well as the FL Keys and parts of S FL

Surface observations and radar data from both Miami and Key West indicate that the tropical wave approaching S FL has developed a defined low level center and is being upgraded to TS Gordon. Several surface sites in the upper FL Keys and S FL have been gusting to over 40mph in squalls this morning. Radar fixes indicate the surface center is moving WNW across the extreme southern portions of mainland FL and will emerge into the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue across much of the FL Keys and S FL today.

Track:
Guidance is in fairly good agreement that Gordon will move quickly WNW to NW across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall along the central US Gulf coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Gordon will generally follow the SW edge of the upper level ridge of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region. After landfall this ridge will build some to the west resulting in a slowing of the forward speed as Gordon moves inland over central LA. Most of the guidance now just indicates a slowing motion and have dropped the westward turn that was being forecasted the last few days.

Intensity:
Gordon looks fairly developed on radar this morning and small system such as this can have quick changes in intensity. The interaction with FL has likely actually helped to tighten up the low level center some this morning. Intensity guidance shows steady intensification across the Gulf of Mexico up through landfall and Gordon will likely make landfall as a strong tropical storm on the US Gulf coast. It is possible that the system could reach hurricane status prior to landfall given the fairly favorable upper level conditions and the system passing over warm waters. After making landfall the system will only slowly decay over LA as upper level conditions look to remain favorable and weaker tropical systems that are organizing on approach to landfall can sometimes maintain themselves better after moving inland.

Impacts:
Main threats along the SE LA and MS coasts over the next 48 hours will be tropical storm force winds, storm surge of 2-4 feet above the ground…especially along the MS coast and within Lake Pontchartrain, and very heavy rainfall of 4-8 inches.

Locally:
TS Gordon will have little impact on our local weather through at least Thursday. Uncertainty increases from Thursday-Sunday as Gordon lingers over NE TX/NW LA and its moisture feed off the Gulf spreads westward toward SE TX from LA. Rain chances will already be elevated this week due to tropical moisture in place…and the current thinking is that this approaching moisture from the east on the southern flank of Gordon will just maintain higher rain chances into next weekend. Will need to monitor the late week forecast for any changes to this thinking.
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djmike
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Nearing 8.5” in my backyar and counting...Still looks like a lot more coming. We just can not seem to get out from under this feedeer band...Today may be a blelessing that everyone has the day off. Many streets and roads under and still stranded in my neighborhood. Less people on the roads.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1018 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 145 PM CDT.

* At 1017 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across
the warned area. 5 to 10 inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
flooding is already occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Galveston Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City, La
Marque, Hitchcock, Surfside Beach, Galveston Pier 21, Bayou Vista,
Oyster Creek, Jamaica Beach, Tiki Island, High Island, Scholes
Field, Port Bolivar, Offatts Bayou, Galveston Pleasure Pier,
Pelican Island, Galveston State Park, Crystal Beach and
Schlitterbahn.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.
cperk
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djmike wrote:Nearing 8.5” in my backyar and counting...Still looks like a lot more coming. We just can not seem to get out from under this feedeer band...Today may be a blelessing that everyone has the day off. Many streets and roads under and still stranded in my neighborhood. Less people on the roads.


dj i would be honored to take a few inches of that rain off your hands. :)
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09032018 mcd0751.gif
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0751...Correction
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Correction for location of system

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031459Z - 032059Z

Summary...Bands of heavy rain are expected to shift from the coast
into interior southeast TX with time. Hourly rain totals to 3",
and additional local amounts to 5", are expected.

Discussion...A warm core low with an elongated low-level
circulation is centered northwest of Fort Hood, TX at this time.
An upper level high is allowing divergence aloft which has
sponsored an increasing degree of convection coverage this
morning. Heavy rain is occurring within its primary inflow band
along the Middle and Upper TX coasts within an area with
convergent 850 hPa inflow. Precipitable water values are ~2.5"
per GPS data. Inflow at 850 hPa is 25-30 kts per VAD wind
profiles, currently strongest in western LA, which is 2-3 times
the magnitude of the mean 850-400 hPa wind. The system's cyclonic
circulation is importing ML CAPE values of 500-2000 J/kg into
Southeast TX. Because of the high moisture content, CIN does not
exist per SPC mesoanalyses.

The guidance shows the potential of another few hours of issues
near the Southeast TX and Southwest LA coast as ML CAPE erodes due
to ongoing convection. However, recent radar imagery is showing
some filling in of convection within the ML CAPE gradient east of
Austin. While this convection is currently scattered, the degree
of low-level inflow could lead to the formation of short training
bands on occasion within interior Southeast TX west of the Big
Thicket with time as low-level inflow attempts to increase later
today. The mesoscale guidance advertises additional local amounts
of 5", which seems plausible. As the degree of convective
organization is uncertain across interior Southeast TX with time,
left the category as possible.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

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djmike
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Nearing 10” of rain here in Beaumont. This band will not budge. Many roads and underpasses are flooded and now media is asking for folks in the golden triangle to stay home if possible. Many pictures and live teports on KFDM and KBMT facebook pages for pics and video. Port Arthur is nearing a foot so far and its still pouring since about 3am this morning. Folks here are growing understably concerned a water now is only inches away feom entering innto homes once again. If you are traveling east today and will be coming through the Beaumont area please use caution and drive slow. Stay safe my golden triangle friends.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
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djmike
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Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC245-361-032000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0036.180903T1703Z-180903T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Eastern Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Central Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 1158 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain falling across the warned area. Automated gauges
indicate three to six inches of rain have fallen over the past 6
hours with isolated amounts 9 to 10 inches reported by observers
since yesterday evening. Flash flooding is likely occurring and
expected to continue.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Vidor,
Bridge City, Central Gardens, Port Acres, Orangefield, Southeast
Texas Regional Airport and Sea Rim State Park.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 9399 3021 9377 3004 9380 2998 9384
2999 9386 2997 9384 2986 9393 2984 9392
2985 9394 2984 9395 2982 9394 2983 9392
2981 9393 2981 9395 2980 9394 2980 9393
2978 9394 2977 9392 2971 9392 2962 9419

$$

24
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
135 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 135 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across
the warned area. Many streets on Galveston Island are
impassable. Flash flooding is already occurring.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Galveston Causeway, Galveston Island West End, Texas City, La
Marque, Hitchcock, Surfside Beach, Galveston Pier 21, Bayou Vista,
Oyster Creek, Jamaica Beach, Tiki Island, High Island, Scholes
Field, Port Bolivar, Offatts Bayou, Galveston Pleasure Pier,
Pelican Island, Galveston State Park, Crystal Beach and
Schlitterbahn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:
Andrew wrote:Definitely impressed how fast Gordon intensified. Still dealing with shear though to the southwest. Let's see if conditions become anymore favorable as it progresses to the northwest.

I've seen that part of S Florida do some strange things with TC's. Flat land, the influence of the Everglades among others can create frictional inflow and close off and even strengthen a TC just as it did with Katrina in 2005. Inspecting GOES 16, the Ridge still looks rather stout back to Arkansas this morning and after looking over the 06 track guidance, it appears there are two camps after landfall. The lesser is NW and then a turn to the NE while the greater amount of tracking guidance is NW to WNW after landfall suggesting there is some debate in the model just how strong that Ridge may actual be come Wednesday/Thursday. It would probably be wise to keep a keen eye of Gordon as it enters the Gulf and until it is inland and dissipated.
Katrina bombed into a Cat 5 monster within 24 hours after passing over the FL keys. She was tight and large.

Gordon's strength could likely have a bearing on the strength of the ridge and thus his path.

While it didn't seem we'd see anything that organized, Climo is taking a hand. All should be wary.
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DoctorMu
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djmike wrote:Nearing 8.5” in my backyar and counting...Still looks like a lot more coming. We just can not seem to get out from under this feedeer band...Today may be a blelessing that everyone has the day off. Many streets and roads under and still stranded in my neighborhood. Less people on the roads.

About 0.6 in IMBY over the past few days in CLL. We may see more rain with Gordon than Houston, but it bears watching. Things may clear out in time for the Clemson game at 6 pm Saturday(?)

Hopefully, the system will move quickly past Beaumont and leave it on the dry side.
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DoctorMu
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The Canadian is sniffing areas of excessing (12 in+) rainfall for the week near the I-45 corridor. GFS and Ensemble less so. Fingers crossed we can get a few inches and stop!

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is the rain over for today?
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