SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[Rip76]

For some reason I can't find all of my old GOM Satellite links.

Does anyone have a few good one's they could post?
Also, are there any good mobile links for the phone as well?

Thanks in advance.

[srainhoutx]

For some reason I can't find all of my old GOM Satellite links.

Does anyone have a few good one's they could post?
Also, are there any good mobile links for the phone as well?

Thanks in advance.

GOES 16 is all that is really available anymore.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[Texaspirate11]

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

IMHO It'll be a curveball out to the fishies

[srainhoutx]

Floater now available for the area of disturbed weather over PR and Hispaniola...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Texaspirate11]

GOT THE attention of the NHC

A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[brooksgarner]

Here's my briefing on PTC#6 and the tropical wave.
link --> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU5igTw ... e=youtu.be

[jasons2k]

Don't forget about the Gulf. Nam is consistent in spinning-up the disturbed weather out there over the weekend. May be nothing...but may be something. But I find it curious we are having some breezy weather out of the E/ENE today. Unusual for August unless we have either had a frontal passage (which we haven't) or there is low pressure forming out in the Gulf....

[stormlover]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

[Cromagnum]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

We need it.

[stormlover]

Don't need 4 straight days of hard rain unless im looking at it wrong. Jason come in lol??

[DoctorMu]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

That's just what the doctor ordered for our yards and trees! My next door neighbor hasn't kept up with watering his elms. They are hurting and going into shock.

Disorganized. Rainy. Seem to be the operative words for the next 10 days, beginning with Saturday.


We had 0.25 in yesterday and 0.2 in the day before. It's a start, but we're still parched up here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

That's just what the doctor ordered for our yards and trees! My next door neighbor hasn't kept up with watering his elms. They are hurting and going into shock.

Disorganized. Rainy. Seem to be the operative words for the next 10 days, beginning with Saturday.


We had 0.25 in yesterday and 0.2 in the day before. It's a start, but we're still parched up here.

It better not come here Clemson weekend. I’ll be pissed

[TexasBreeze]

Not really a bears watch, but it bears watching!
-- HGX 4pm discussion about it.

[sau27]

HGX forecast discussion appears to issue a Bear Watch watch

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[srainhoutx]

Isolated showers/storms look likely today (Friday) as we begin the long Labor Day Holiday Weekend. Some drier air has moved in across our Northern areas and should limit rain chances today and likely most of tomorrow. On Sunday, it does appear higher PW's of 2 inches or greater will again shift from East to West across the Northern and NW Gulf as the upper ridge flattens out and lifts a bit further North. A disturbance in the Eastern Gulf should arrive around that time in our area on Sunday and continue into most of next week.

Regarding that area of disturbed weather over Hispaniola, upper level wind shear associated with a small upper low/trough just East of Jacksonville/Savannah continues to keep that disturbance in check at this time and should throughout the Holiday Weekend. Conditions may become slightly more favorable as the Tropical Wave axis enters the SE Gulf on Labor Day. The overnight ECMWF did suggest a weak disturbance would ride the Northern Gulf Coastal areas and slowly attempt to organize off the Middle/Lower Texas Coast. The GFS never develops this disturbance, but just enhances rainfall chances. Interestingly, the models do indicate a somewhat small, but possibly conducive Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave for next week that did not show up in any of the guidance a couple of days ago. That could assist in thunderstorm development over the Gulf with its rising air, so we will continue to monitor over the Holiday Weekend as should everyone to be on the safe side should any tropical mischief decide to spin up next week in our backyard.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six, located a couple of hundred miles east-
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to
the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Avila

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Rain chances will increase this weekend and remain high through all of next week.

Upper level ridge of high pressure centered over the NE US and mid Atlantic will remain in place for the next 7-10 days allowing deep easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico into TX. Several weak tropical waves will begin to impact the state starting on Saturday and continuing into the end of next week. Moisture across the Gulf of Mexico is plentiful and PWS of 2.0-2.3 inches will begin to push inland on Saturday and remain in place for the next week if not longer. Convective temperatures will lower into the mid to upper 80’s suggesting starting on Saturday showers and thunderstorms will begin to form earlier in the day…morning hours along the coast and midday across most the rest of the area with a lull in activity by the late afternoon and early evening. Tropical moisture levels will support a heavy rainfall threat under the stronger storms where a quick 1-2 inches may fall in less than an hour. At this time the rainfall over the next 2-4 days does not appear to pose more than an isolated flood threat under those heavy slow moving cells.

Tropics:
Tropical wave approaching the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms as it interacts with an upper level low pressure system. Currently wind shear aloft is preventing any sort of low level circulation from developing and this wind shear will remain in place for the next 2-3 days as the wave moves across the Bahamas toward Cuba and FL with no development expected. Early next week the wave axis will arrive into the eastern Gulf of Mexico where upper level conditions may improve some allowing sharpening of the wave axis. It is interesting to note that most of the major global models have dropped development with this feature, but there are still ensemble members that indicate some development. NHC currently gives the system a 10% chance of development by the early to mid part of next week.

Late week forecast along the TX coast will likely hinge on what if anything forms from this wave axis. Upper level pattern continues to show high pressure over the SE US and again over the SW US with a weakness “or break in the ridge” over TX. The tropical wave axis could move into this weakness and slow down near the coast of LA/TX late next week with continuing high rain chances.

At this point…something just to continue to watch.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are basically in agreement that a weak area of low pressure will skirt along the Louisiana and Upper Texas Coast next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Looks like a rain maker versus a wind event.

[stormlover]

Srain how good is the ICON model?

[Texaspirate11]

Euro run is not good for texas, maybe 3-4 straight days of rain..

That's just what the doctor ordered for our yards and trees! My next door neighbor hasn't kept up with watering his elms. They are hurting and going into shock.

Disorganized. Rainy. Seem to be the operative words for the next 10 days, beginning with Saturday.


We had 0.25 in yesterday and 0.2 in the day before. It's a start, but we're still parched up here.

I'll say EURO is great for Texas - signed, my garden and trees.

[srainhoutx]

Srain how good is the ICON model?

Statically, it scores less the GFS and the ECMWF beyond 5 days.