JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[cperk]

Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

20% chance ya think or higher?

Higher.

[mcheer23]

Gotta think the NHC will put chances higher than 10 percent with the next update in an hour....

20% chance ya think or higher?

Higher.

Personally, I'd go about 30, for now....but I think they'll go 20.

[mcheer23]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[stormlover]

They went conservative, if convection keeps firing I could see 40 tonight

[don]

The vorticity looks pretty sharp on the 12z Euro gets close to closing it off.

[stormlover]

This might be the first time ever I go against the euro

[Rip76]

Houston dome in full effect today.

[jasons2k]

Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!

[Rip76]

That high pressure has to still be looming.

[stormlover]

Srain, what do u think about the euro ?

[TexasBreeze]

Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!

Not impressed with today. You can look up and not see too many rising clouds or too many clouds to begin with...

[weatherguy425]

PWATS are less than 2.0”; 1.6”-1.8”.

Heights are still higher and other than outflow boundaries and the sea breeze - there isn’t much of a trigger. Pretty much going according to plan, in my mind. Isolated to widely scattered downpours progressing inland.

[DoctorMu]

Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!

Welcome to my world.

[DoctorMu]

Check out the shear blowing the tops off a few sea breeze cells near the LA border.

[davidiowx]

There’s def some very strong shear along the TX and LA coast. We will see if it continues or subsides. This is an interesting and complex set up. So many factors come into play.. as with every system but this one is peculiar.

[srainhoutx]

The WPC afternoon Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for tomorrow and Monday place Texas Coastal Counties in a Marginal Risk on Sunday with a Slight Risk for Monday. The latest QPF Outlook suggest rain chances continue throughout the next 7 Days with a Gulf disturbance advertising generally 2 to 4 inch amounts with isolated higher totals where some storm training may occur. The best chance of seeing heavy rainfall still looks like along and South of the I-10 Corridor with decreasing amounts the further inland you are located. The best news of all is most of our drought parched Regions will get a drink of water over the course of the next 7 days and for that we can be thankful!

[stormlover]

ICOn model man o man we don’t want that

[DoctorMu]

ICOn model man o man we don’t want that

Nope. Flood in Hou, huge gradient and even a potential bust for me...or flood.

[Andrew]

Interesting to note the GFS is picking up on some banding monday afternoon that would be need to be monitored. Some of the hi-res models were picking up on that too. I still believe Monday evening/night will have the highest potential of heavy rain.

[stormlover]

Andrew, how good is the icon model