JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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loving the cloud cover for lawn work this morning, however brief it may be

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Cromagnum
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jasons wrote:I sure hope we get some rain on Sunday. It will be our last chance for a long time.

From today's NWS AFD:

We`ll be watching a weak front that`ll sag into se Tx during the day Sunday. PW`s pool to around 2" right along the boundary. During the late afternoon and evening hours there`s a possibility that the seabreeze and the front "collide" somewhere across the southern half of se Tx. Whether or not there will be enough convergence to overcome the cap remains to be seen. But if it does, chances are that any storms that do pop may be strong/severe with winds being primary threat. Most favorable timeframe should this happen looks to be 3-9pm or so.
NWS has us down to cloudy on Sunday and 20% on Monday. I'm not holding my breath.
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DoctorMu
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Rain chances are bumped up a tad Sunday and Monday for northern counties


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through 09z. An outflow
boundary will approach northern TAF sites around 12z and this
feature could generate a few early morning showers. A brief
window of MVFR ceilings will be possible between 13-16z with skies
clearing by mid/late morning. A cold front over North Texas will
move slowly south tonight and approach the region by mid day
Sunday. The actual front will arrive around 21z and the combination
of the front and peak heating will set the stage for afternoon
thunderstorms. Fcst soundings show a lot of instability with CAPE
values over 3000 J/Kg and lapse rates near 7.0 C. Soundings also
show an inverted V signature so would expect the stronger storms
will produce some gusty winds. Have added a Prob30 for northern
TAF sites, generally north of I-10.
Will start with a VCTS for the
Houston terminals and keep the coast dry. Some disparity in the
solutions for Sunday night and will lean toward the drier GFS
solution for now. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

UPDATE...
Surface analysis shows a cold front stretching from Presidio to
San Angelo to Gainesville this evening. Modest forcing along the
front has been able to initiate a few thunderstorms along this
boundary this evening, but increasing stability with nocturnal
cooling has made it difficult for this activity to maintain itself
and regional radar trends show this convection weakening as the
front sags south. Latest high resolution guidance shows enough
forcing will persist along the surface front for additional weak
development to occur near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
regions early Sunday morning and have maintained the 20-30 PoPs
for these areas in response.
Similar to last night, anvil debris
from the ongoing storms along the front may drift across Southeast
Texas with a weakening surface pressure gradient promoting patchy
fog development outside of Houston.

Preliminary inspection of 00Z guidance continues to raise
concerns for a potential damaging wind threat late Sunday
afternoon and evening as diurnal heating promotes another round of
thunderstorms along the front. Guidance continues to advertise
the front`s location as somewhere north of Interstate 10.
Surface
to 600 MB theta-e deficits exceed 30 K in most areas north of a
Brenham to Cleveland line during the late afternoon (which can
indicate the presence of a layer of dry air in the atmosphere that
is favorable for producing large negative buoyancy from
evaporative cooling) and this, coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (greater than 6.8 C/km) and inverted-V profiles on forecast
soundings indicate that thunderstorms will be capable of strong
downbursts. Forecast soundings also show mean wind profiles of 10
knots or less, indicating that storms will be very slow-moving.
The slow-moving nature of the storms combined with ample
atmospheric moisture swept south into the region ahead of the
front will mean that isolated 1-3 inch rainfall amounts will be
possible. Should a pronounced cold pool develop with any of this
activity, thunderstorms may be able to propagate farther south
towards the Houston metro by early evening.

Huffman


Irrational exuberance on TWC.
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srainhoutx
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago
A cold front will be working its way southward and into our area during the day today. Shower/thunderstorm development is expected, and some storms could become strong or severe this afternoon/evening. Have a plan if activity heads your way. #txwx #houwx #bcswx #glswx

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jasons2k
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Radar shows some sort of boundary draped across northern Montgomery County pushing south...
unome
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jasons wrote:Radar shows some sort of boundary draped across northern Montgomery County pushing south...
moving west almost as fast as south :cry:

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Texaspirate11
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Come to Mama, Rain! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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srainhoutx
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Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Weak frontal boundary will drift into the area this afternoon with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible.

Air mass will heat quickly this morning into the early afternoon hours ahead of a weak cool front which will arrive into SE TX neat maximum heating. Moisture will pool along this boundary and the air mass will become very unstable over the region with CAPE values of 3500-5000 J/kg by late afternoon. Expect surface convergence along the boundary to result in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms that develop over the Lake Livingston region and move SW/SSW across at least the northern half of the region this afternoon and evening.

Primary threat will be strong damaging winds as these storms and their resultant cool outflow clash with the very warm mid 90 degree heat over the region by mid to late afternoon. SSW moving outflow boundaries may also collide with the NNW moving seabreeze front somewhere either side of I-10 late this afternoon producing an enhancement of the storms. Moisture levels are high and very heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches in an hour or less will be possible with these storms, but the isolated nature should preclude any significant flooding threat.

Front remains stalled across the area on Monday into Tuesday and a fairy strong disturbance will move out of New Mexico and across TX late Monday and Tuesday. This may result in a large complex of thunderstorms over W TX that moves eastward late Monday into Tuesday. With the upper level ridge remaining to our SW for the next 48-72 hours…the area will have the potential for disturbances aloft to interact with the surface front or the seabreeze to produce showers and thunderstorms over mainly the central and northern portions of the area.

Upper level ridging attempts to build back over the area by mid week, but SE TX looks to be on the eastern side of the ridge and any disturbances moving S/SSW in the N/NNE upper level flow could produce thunderstorms over E TX/W LA that manage to drift into at least the eastern sections of the area (E of I-45).
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unome
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heat index is currently 106 here - please come this way :cry:

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0635.html

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Code: Select all

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 03 2018

   Areas affected...Southeast Texas...southern and central
   Louisiana...southern and central Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032049Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...One persistent cluster of storms continues across central
   Louisiana, while other scattered development continues along a cold
   front near/south of the I-20 corridor from east Texas to
   Mississippi.  A WW is not currently expected with this activity,
   although isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with
   convection across the area through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent, yet mostly sub-severe cluster of storms
   continues to expand across central Louisiana near/southeast of POE
   currently.  Other, more isolated thunderstorms have recently
   developed in east-central Texas (near LFK) and in central
   Mississippi (around 40 miles south of JAN).  Another slowly
   southward-moving cluster was located near MEI.  These storms were
   all within a weakly capped, yet strongly unstable environment, with
   MUCAPE values exceeding 4000 J/kg along and and south of the front. 
   Additional convective development is anticipated through the
   afternoon - especially near and west of ongoing convective clusters
   where expanding near-surface cold pools will help force ascent and
   overcome the lingering capping across the area.  Lightly northerly
   mid-level flow will aid in a south-southwestward propagation of
   ongoing clusters through the evening.  Damaging wind gusts and a few
   instances of large hail will be likely near any storm given the
   magnitude of instability.

   Given recent trends and the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected but cannot be completely
   ruled out - particularly in southwestern Louisiana and far southeast
   Texas if the ongoing cluster exhibits greater upscale growth and
   severity than currently anticipated.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/03/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31079575 31349521 31319461 31359353 31459240 31699094
               32168940 32168873 31798852 31008844 30588870 29828979
               29419039 29419118 29449150 29289264 29109464 29269515
               30029559 31079575 
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djmike
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5pm and so far not at all impressed.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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