JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[davidiowx]

Well that was fun. Looks like it’s about done for me with NO complaints here. Great beneficial rains that we definitely needed!

[Andrew]

Line moved through here pretty good northwest of 610. Got some good rainfall out of it and it moved through fast enough not to cause any flooding. Locally, looking at rain gauges across the region so far the Katy region is the big "winner" with close to 8 inches. Most of the rest of us have received at least 1.5 inches with most of us in the 2+ range. Still have more rain falling and expect another chance of rain tomorrow even though coverage will be a lot less.

[davidiowx]

Feel for those down in S. Texas area. Another huge bow up on satellite and some of those places have had a foot per radar estimates.

[srainhoutx]

Over 3 inches and still counting for today. Add that to the 1.03 inches I emptied from Sunday to yesterday. Never underestimate a surge of disturbed tropical weather and deep tropical moisture moving inland. No bust in the general forecast as far as I am concerned considering the models were almost useless in pin pointing exactly where and when the heaviest rainfall would occur...

[Rip76]

Pearland getting hammered

[davidiowx]

That’s a nice blow up off the coast of Texas..

[unome]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0341
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 210003Z - 210603Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS ENHANCED EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATIONARY UPPER VORT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO THE MCV OVER FAR SOUTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ENHANCE ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS MCV IN THE PERSISTENT AXIS OF MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES...2.5 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN. AT THE MOMENT...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEARLY STATIONARY VORT ALONG THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS OF
VERY UNSTABLE AIR SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE...MUCAPE VALUES IN THE
2000-3000+ RANGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT TO THIS MCV AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR
OFFSHORE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING OF
CELLS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THIS MCV ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS.

SIMULATED RADARS FROM THE HRRX SHOW THIS TRAINING CONTINUING THRU
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE HRRR
HOWEVER...HAS A SHORTER PERIOD OF TRAINING AND ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
HEAVY PRECIP FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
LIEU OF COASTAL ACTIVITY. THE HRRX ALSO SHOWS THE INLAND ACTIVITY
BUT MAINTAINS THE TRAINING THREAT ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF TRAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE TX COAST AND THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCV...BELIEVE THE HRRRX MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GOING INTO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

ORAVEC

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

[jasons2k]

Will be keeping a close watch on the Gulf tonight for redevelopment...we may not be done just yet folks.

[Katdaddy]

Some water flowing along Magnolia Creek behind the house after the heavy rains. 2.64" this evening.

[Rip76]

Will be keeping a close watch on the Gulf tonight for redevelopment...we may not be done just yet folks.

You think?

[TexasBreeze]

There is redevelopment south of Corpus that they will have to watch. Beaumont looks to receive more rains soon and hope the line keeps moving. The atmosphere is well worked over currently here. There is drier pw air building in the Gulf se of here moving towards the coast so convection will be much less than today for tomorrow. Still have to watch for overnight though.

[Andrew]

For those currently interested, a lot of the reason we aren't expecting to see as wide of coverage with storms today is due to dry air advecting from the western gulf. While PWATs currently over this region are above 2 inches, out in the gulf a lot of the area is below 2 inches and that is what is advecting over the SE Texas. That is where you also see a nice Theta-E trough/low indicating not as much moisture.

Edit to add: We will have to monitor though how long it does take for that drier air to mix in. Currently, we sit between the drier air to the north and the south as a trough remains stationary from Brownsville and corpus up to central Louisiana

[Andrew]

Starting to see more coverage over near Beaumont where places have already got hit pretty hard over the last couple days. Will have to keep an eye on how development expands.

[brooksgarner]

On this last day of heavy rain event ... Ball park future precip estimates range from 1"-3" where storms set up this morning along and south of 59, and most impactful rain ends before evening commute. NWS says last time Bush IAH airport saw greater than 1" of rain for four consecutive days was during Harvey ... will today be a 5th? (Not likely.)

hrrr_t_precip_houston_16.png

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
722 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
North central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1015 AM CDT.

* At 721 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. An
estimated three to four inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Eastern Bay City and Van Vleck.

[sambucol]

How much longer are these rains going to affect our area?

[srainhoutx]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
737 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

Wharton TX-Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Matagorda TX-
737 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Eastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
South central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 736 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Matagorda, Bay City, Sweeny, South Texas Nuclear Plant, Van Vleck,
Wadsworth and Damon.

[djmike]

Unfortunately we are getting pummeled again in Beaumont. Seems to have stalled over us again. Not as bad as mon and tues but we certainly dont need any more.

[tireman4]

HGX Forecast Today

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 211135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect area TAF sites
again today with the best rain chances over mainly the southern
TAF sites. A mix of ceilings this morning from VFR over the south
to LIFR over northern sites. Drier air will work into the region
this afternoon and rain chances will begin to drop with some
partial clearing toward evening. A brief period of VFR tonight
with some MVFR ceilings redeveloping after 09z. 43

&&