JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[cperk]

It's coming down hard in Richmond almost an inch in 10 minutes.

[stormlover]

icon model has been most consistent the last 2 days

[TexasBreeze]

Euro seems to have a defect with strengthening a low in west TX and going northeast later in the run. It has been doing that lately and can't buy that. GFS looks more reasonable.

[skidog44]

This storm wants to strengthen

[LightningBolt]

Posting from the Applecross Peninsula, Wester Ross, Scotland. My flight is due in at IAH Tuesday night. Hopefully that happens without any weather-related problems.

[jasons2k]

There are TS-force gusts out in the Gulf. I can also see a mid-level circulation on radar and satellite, roughly south of Cameron, LA and east of Corpus. Headed NW.

Oh, and the latest Euro dumps a foot of rain on me.

[don]

WPC mentions that a Moderate Risk may be needed for some portions of the area.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018 - 12Z Tue Jun 19 2018

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE TEXAS
GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...

...Texas Coast and South Texas...
Guidance continues to show a large amount of spread with the weak
development in the western Gulf that sends tropical moisture to
the Texas coast through the middle of the week. Tropical moisture
(PWAT of 2.25+ inches is around record values for mid June) will
continue to move into south and east TX along with the approach of
a mid level disturbance, resulting in heavy rains and a potential
for a significant rainfall event. Still unclear how organized the
heavy rains will get, but given the tropical moisture and
increased low level flow, a Slight Risk was maintained along the
Texas Coast with a Marginal Risk for southeast Texas into western
LA. Certainly some threat for localized significant flash flooding
with this system. Recent drought conditions will make it harder to
flash flood, although short term rates could still get high enough
to cause concerns. Some chance a Moderate Risk may need to be
considered for a portion of the area if a convective focus becomes
more clear as we get closer to the event.

Day 3 Discussion:

...South Texas...
Guidance continues to show a large amount of spread with the weak
development in the western Gulf that sends tropical moisture to
the Texas coast through the middle of the week. Tropical moisture
(PWAT of 2.25+ inches is around record values for mid June) will
continue to move into south and east TX along with the approach of
a mid level disturbance, resulting in heavy rains and a potential
for a significant rainfall event. Still unclear how organized the
heavy rains will get, but given the tropical moisture and
increased low level flow, a Slight Risk was continued for south
TX.

Certainly some threat for significant flash flooding with this
system. Recent drought conditions will make it harder to flash
flood...although short term rates could still get high enough to
cause concerns. And if some of the stronger and slower solutions
verify, then continued rains could even eventually saturate
drought areas. Thus some chance a Moderate Risk may need to be
considered for a portion of the area as we get closer to the event
and confidence increases.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml#

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports that Addicks/Barker Flood gates were closed this morning.

[skidog44]

What's coming off Yucatan peninsula

[davidiowx]

Jeff reports that Addicks/Barker Flood gates were closed this morning.

Is that standard operating procedure or is there a reason for that? I live at Eldridge and Memorial during Harvey and had 3-4ft of water in my apartment for 2 straight weeks due to the reservoir issue. I’ve since bought a house in richmond but I’m curious about it

[srainhoutx]

What's coming off Yucatan peninsula

Another tropical wave. The T waves are lined up across the Caribbean and the Atlantic right now. The only somewhat hospitable area for storms to fire off is in the W/NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf. The vigorous Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is also assisting in thunderstorm development. That should continue throughout the coming week.

[brooksgarner]

Stating the obvious, but the next 12hrs will be telling.

[FreeportTX35]

Haven't had any rain here in freeport

[stormlover]

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today

[Rip76]

Gusty winds and rain in Pearland.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today

To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain.

[DoctorMu]

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today

To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain.

A huge rain gradiant still on the models. Could be flood or semi-bust up in College Station. The first wave dropped just about 0.13 in. today and the remainder of waves hit a brick wall upon arrival.

[Cromagnum]

Brooks, will this be a bust??? Wasn’t it supposed to be heavy rains all day today

To me, it looks like we will have more rain than expected. At this point, a bust seems very unlikely unless your benchmark was 6 inches of rain.

When models are calling for a foot of rain, anything less than a few inches is a miss for sure.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I wasn’t expecting anything too heavy until overnight tonight. My 1/2 inch so far seems on par.

[djmike]

What time is the next euro precip update?