JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasBreeze
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by TexasBreeze » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:50 pm

jasons wrote:
Rip76 wrote:Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!
Not impressed with today. You can look up and not see too many rising clouds or too many clouds to begin with...

weatherguy425
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by weatherguy425 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:55 pm

PWATS are less than 2.0”; 1.6”-1.8”.

Heights are still higher and other than outflow boundaries and the sea breeze - there isn’t much of a trigger. Pretty much going according to plan, in my mind. Isolated to widely scattered downpours progressing inland.

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DoctorMu
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:42 pm

jasons wrote:
Rip76 wrote:Houston dome in full effect today.

Yes, how can it be so hot, and such high pwats, and nothing?!?!?!
Welcome to my world.

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DoctorMu
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:08 pm

Check out the shear blowing the tops off a few sea breeze cells near the LA border.

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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by davidiowx » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:13 pm

There’s def some very strong shear along the TX and LA coast. We will see if it continues or subsides. This is an interesting and complex set up. So many factors come into play.. as with every system but this one is peculiar.

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srainhoutx
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:18 pm

The WPC afternoon Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for tomorrow and Monday place Texas Coastal Counties in a Marginal Risk on Sunday with a Slight Risk for Monday. The latest QPF Outlook suggest rain chances continue throughout the next 7 Days with a Gulf disturbance advertising generally 2 to 4 inch amounts with isolated higher totals where some storm training may occur. The best chance of seeing heavy rainfall still looks like along and South of the I-10 Corridor with decreasing amounts the further inland you are located. The best news of all is most of our drought parched Regions will get a drink of water over the course of the next 7 days and for that we can be thankful!
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stormlover
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by stormlover » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:23 pm

ICOn model man o man we don’t want that

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DoctorMu
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:36 pm

stormlover wrote:ICOn model man o man we don’t want that
:shock:

Nope. Flood in Hou, huge gradient and even a potential bust for me...or flood.


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Andrew
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by Andrew » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:10 pm

Interesting to note the GFS is picking up on some banding monday afternoon that would be need to be monitored. Some of the hi-res models were picking up on that too. I still believe Monday evening/night will have the highest potential of heavy rain.
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Re: JUNE 2018: Watching The Tropics/Heavy Rainfall Possible

Post by stormlover » Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:13 pm

Andrew, how good is the icon model

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