JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't be shocked to see 92L up shortly either.

[mcheer23]

So this one could give us some hefty rains Wed - Fri? The gulf system is the rains for Sun-Mon? Am I understanding this right?

This disturbance should reach Texas by late Sunday.

[djmike]

So this one could give us some hefty rains Wed - Fri? The gulf system is the rains for Sun-Mon? Am I understanding this right?

This disturbance should reach Texas by late Sunday.

Thank you

[stormlover]

Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico.

That is from wxman

[mcheer23]

Models have trended just the opposite - away from SE TX and LA with the heavier precip. 12z Euro has most of the precip moving into NE Mexico.

That is from wxman

It all depends on what becomes of this system.

[srainhoutx]

The forecasters at HGX have been tweeting regarding the precipitation forecast difficulties due to the run to run changes with all the guidance we have available. Where the heaviest rainfall actually occurs will likely not be known until we get in to the very short fuse mesoscale guidance window, if then. Radar watching will be the be case for this weather maker throughout its life regarding the sensible weather, IMO.

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook

[djmike]

Ok so does this bring the heaviest rains back up the coast now that the motion/path of this new wave is much northern than 91 was? 91 motion/path was mid-south tx before they discontinued watching it.

[davidiowx]

Appears a lot of the models today have shifted a bulk of the precip further south.. Well at least the heaviest of it.

[tireman4]

Jeff Linder AFD

[don]

With this kind of setup, qpf forecast can change drastically quickly for any given area, depending on if the system wraps up or not. If it does most of the rain would be shifted to the north and east of the center of circulation and a stronger system would be able to concentrate rains better over an area, which would probably give Southeast Texas the heaviest rain, while an open wave could have a harder time fighting off the High pressure to our east, hence why the models that show an open wave shunts the moisture plume further to our south quicker. While the models that show more of a closed low like the CMC below, produces a much higher amount of qpf across the area. Bears watch imo...

[tireman4]

Brooks Update....

[brooksgarner]

Hey y'all, just checkin' in. All possibilities on the table. 12z GFS closes off weak low near Brownsville. Even a tiny close-off of pressures could focus rain bands, near wherever that center approaches shore. Low level jet comes into play, and more... So many options still on the table... this is one of those very tough calls we'll have to wait until it's upon us to truly get a grasp on. I'd like to name it, "Tropical Disturbance Hindsight." Stay tuned.... Y'all know the deal. Tons PWATS for storms to tap this weekend. -Brooks

[jasons2k]

This is from a Pro Met I know - he said I could post it:

Good Friday to all of you out there. I hope your week has been a good one. Alright, so here we are in the middle of June with something to talk about. First off, let me start off by saying, this will not be a major threat to many of you. Matter of fact, I think it will offer the area some much needed beneficial rains. That forecast I will have for you in just a little bit. First off, I do want to go on a little rant here.

I know many of you saw about 7 days ago or so of people showing on social media (professional meteorologist mind you) of a category 2 hitting the upper Texas coast. I have never understood why people show this because first off, 9 times out of 10, this will not happen and secondly, most models, even the best ones are not that accurate. So I just say this...if you see something like that, please, please, please don't buy into the hype of it. If it deserves a mention, I promise you I will provide it to you in the most accurate and dependable way possible. That is the problem with social media and weather models today. You have to use intuition and in a sense, your gut as well. That is one of my reasons for waiting so long to write this email to many of you, because I wanted the hype to tail off and then I could go on with an actual forecast to send you all. Sorry about the rant everyone but something I just had to get off my chest. So here it goes...

So, curretly we are looking at an area of disturbed weather across the extreme western Caribbean Sea. The new GOES-16 visible shows a large area of thunderstorms but as you can see, there isn't much spin associated with this activity.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

Looking at the water vapor imagery which shows the mid to upper levels. This shows stuff that can inhibit development such as dry air along with showing ridges and troughs. As you can see in the imagine, there is a lot of dry air ahead of this thing that will likely make development really slow at best.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

You may also notice a little spin across the western Gulf. This can mean two things: first of all, an upper low very close to a system like the one we are monitoring can keep this thing from further developing because it increases shear. Time and time again I talk a lot about shear and this is bad for the storm. Secondly, this usually is a pretty good indicator of where this disturbance will end up. Currently, it appear it will be heading for either south Texas or northern Mexico.

The reason for is there is a ridge of high pressure currently across the southeast United States that continues to build further westward. This will push the system also further west away from the central and upper Texas coast.

This figure above is the GFS American model. And this shows what the upper levels of the atmopshere could look like but it is a good GENERAL idea of how things are going to pan out early next week.

CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT
Right now, I would say there is a less than 10% chance of development through the Saturday and a 20-30% chance of development Sunday into Monday before it moves into northern Mexico or southern Texas. There is just too much shear for it to deal with and while the waters are well above average, there shear which doesn't allow the thunderstorms to grow will be too much to overcome. That is the more important factor than the water temps.

WHAT TO EXPECT
Even if this is just going to be a disturbance, we all learned our lesson from Harvey. While it did hit several hundred miles to the southwest of Beaumont, Houston and Southwest Louisiana, because those areas were on the east side, they still did receive heavy rainfall. I think this will be the case here, however I can promise you, Harvey-like rainfall amounts aren't expected with this disturbance. I will get to that in a little bit.

PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS
So here is what we can expect for areas along the coast from the south Texas coast up to the middle Louisiana coastline.

Brownsville-Corpus Christi, TX (includes Alice, McAllen, Kingsville, Harlingen) -
5-8" isolated 10-12"

Corpus Christ-Port O'Connor, TX (Port Aransas, Victoria, Port Lavaca) -
3-5" isolated 6-8"

Port O'Connor-Galveston, TX (Lake Jackson, El Campo, Sugar Land, Houston, Pearland, Pasadena, Texas City, Conroe, Woodlands, Katy) - 2-4" isolated 4-6"

Galveston-Sabine Pass, TX (Baytown, Winnie, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Lumberton, Vidor, Buna) - 2-4" isolated 4-5"

Sabine Pass, TX-Lake Charles, LA - 1-3" isolated 4-5"

Also, please keep in mind the coastal areas will see the most rain and I would consider Interstate 10 and good cutoff from the heaviest rains versus the lighter amounts as well. Some ponding is possible across the area on roads and if you get under one of the heavy tropical downpours, you could also see some brief flooding.

We are still early in the season but there is always the threat for development anywhere across the Atlantic basin.

As always, you can follow me on Twitter @Nathan_Weather. I will also post the PayPal information below.

Have a great Friday and weekend everyone,
Nathan

[jasons2k]

18Z GFS coming in, closing it off and further north and east...

[TexasBreeze]

Saw the 18z this event hasn't even started yet and people are gloom and doom about lowered rain amounts of late. Hou is still in the game imo for those wanting bigger amounts.

[djmike]

Can someone post the 18z GFS graphic or provide a link? Thanks

[don]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_6.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_8.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

[DoctorMu]

Still optimistic about some rain. There will be too large of a surge on the east side of the disorganized system not to see an inch or 2 or 3 or...

[jasons2k]

Still optimistic about some rain. There will be too large of a surge on the east side of the disorganized system not to see an inch or 2 or 3 or...

I am becoming more confident of the same. It looks like a wave train for the next 7+ days for us.