MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May

[srainhoutx]

5:00 PM Update from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall continues in bands over NW Harris, Waller, and W Montgomery Counties.

Rainfall totals over the last 2-3 hours have averaged 3-5 inches from near Magnolia to Waller to Hockley resulting in rapid rises on both upper Spring Creek and upper Little Cypress Creek. Additional heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible over the area already hard hit with 3-5 inches over the next 1-2 hours as another band of rainfall approaches from the WSW.

A low level outflow boundary is clearly noted on radar moving SE out of this area of heavy rainfall and will need to be watched for additional development to the south and east over the next few hours. This should help to gradually weaken the activity that has been training/anchored over NW Harris/SW Montgomery Counties in the next few hours.

Street flooding is likely ongoing in the Flood Advisory area and both upper Spring and upper Little Cypress Creeks may rise to near bankfull this evening. Any minor flooding along these portions of those creeks will be contained to rural low lying lands along the creek and few low lying roads or low roads that cross those creeks could be impacted….especially on upper Spring Creek.

[davidiowx]

I’m more than welcoming this rain if it makes it down to the Richmond area. I have a brisket in the smoker and it has about 3 hours left

Think I should transfer it to the oven to finish up or will the rain fizzle our before it gets to the Richmond/Sugar Land area?

[unome]

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

currently "yellow", near top of bank

• Little Cypress at Becker
  Bear Branch at 2978
  2320 Panther Branch at 2348

[DoctorMu]

Getting a bit concerned with the cell mergers over Waller/NW Harris and Montgomery Counties. An additional 3 to 5 inches could bring rises to our Creeks and Bayous.

05202018 mcd0176.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0176
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 202147Z - 210200Z

SUMMARY...PERIODS OF TRAINING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH 02Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBANIZED HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA.

DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A LONG-LIVED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON BELTWAY WESTWARD TO
JUST NORTH OF COTULLA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS A
SMALL BOWING COMPLEX MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT ROUGHLY 25
KT...WHILE FARTHER EAST... SLOWER MOVING CELLS WITH EMBEDDED
TRAINING WAS OCCURRING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED KHGX
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR LOCATED BETWEEN
COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON. VAD WIND PLOTS FROM CRP AND HGX
SHOWED ~30 KT AT 850 MB FROM THE SOUTH...OVERRUNNING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AMID A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
HOUSTON IS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTIES WITH
RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 IN/HR.

FARTHER WEST...THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL
BOWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

ONE LARGE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE VERY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...4+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES AND/OR SEE RUNOFF ISSUES DESPITE THE HIGH
FFG GIVEN THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BEING OBSERVED.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

The feast has swung east into the merged cell. Potential flooding in Montgomery Co.

We'll probably tally only 0.3 in in CLL. I just installed a new rain gauge above dog chewing height. Thought we would see 2+ inches for sure.

Better than it has been, though with cool NW wind

[MontgomeryCoWx]

In the last hour I’ve picked up 1.8 inches. Total of 4.92

[unome]

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX125AA4BD49B0.SpecialWeatherStatement.125AA4C91C40TX.HGXSPSHGX.0a041610f7a276d54806f71e87fb3f5a from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 17:52 CDT on 05-20-2018
Effective: 16:49 CDT on 05-20-2018
Expires: 19:00 CDT on 05-20-2018
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO...NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Shenandoah, or over The Woodlands, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Conroe, Cleveland, The Woodlands, Spring, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Splendora, Patton Village, Woodbranch, Cut And Shoot, North Cleveland, Woodloch, The Woodlands Pavillion, Chateau Woods, Splashtown, Porter Heights and Tarkington Prairie.

Instructions: Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
Target Area:
Inland Harris
Montgomery
Northern Liberty
San Jacinto
Forecast Office: NWS Houston - Galveston (Houston - Galveston)

[mckinne63]

I’m more than welcoming this rain if it makes it down to the Richmond area. I have a brisket in the smoker and it has about 3 hours left

Think I should transfer it to the oven to finish up or will the rain fizzle our before it gets to the Richmond/Sugar Land area?

I am in Stafford, skies are clouding over, but am not too hopeful. I think your brisket is safe.

[srainhoutx]

Another Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning for N/NE Harris and southern Montgomery Counties until 915pm.

Excessive rainfall of 3-5 inches has occurred this afternoon over northern Harris, southern Montgomery, and NE Waller Counties. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches have occurred over the Spring Creek watershed.

Band of heavy rainfall is starting to move ESE/SE along the leading edge of an outflow boundary with an overall weakening trend in the rainfall over the NW part of Harris County.

Minor overbank flooding is likely along upper Lt Cypress Creek around Becker Rd impacting mainly Zube Park and low lying lands near the creek.

Upper Spring Creek is rising rapidly and will likely reach near bankfull or exceed banks this evening near Hagar Rd. Some bridge over Spring Creek may become inundated along with low lands near the creek.

[davidiowx]

I’m more than welcoming this rain if it makes it down to the Richmond area. I have a brisket in the smoker and it has about 3 hours left

Think I should transfer it to the oven to finish up or will the rain fizzle our before it gets to the Richmond/Sugar Land area?

I am in Stafford, skies are clouding over, but am not too hopeful. I think your brisket is safe.

Just as I check back in the rain has started, albeit light and not affecting the temp at all. Radar seems to show some of the heavier stuff making it here soon.. at least I hope!! I’m going to pull it and put it in the oven. If I had to choose, I’d take an inch of rain over the brisket at this point

[wxdude]

I sure hope the coastal counties get in on the action. We sure could use some rain.

[Cromagnum]

Not a single drop south of town. I hope this swings on down. I have cracks that are 3 inches across in the ground.

[DoctorMu]

In the last hour I’ve picked up 1.8 inches. Total of 4.92

0.44 inches here. Not a bust, but a bit disappointing. At least it is a nice cool evening here!

My new rain gauge is perfect for Texas - extra gradations on the low end, but can hold 8 inches at a time.

[DoctorMu]

Not a single drop south of town. I hope this swings on down. I have cracks that are 3 inches across in the ground.

Outflow boundary on the way - hope it holds together!

[jasons2k]

2.22" here so far and counting. What a wonderful blessing.

[Cromagnum]

Not a single drop south of town. I hope this swings on down. I have cracks that are 3 inches across in the ground.

Outflow boundary on the way - hope it holds together!

Falling apart as we speak. And we just had a power blip too to rub salt in.

[davidiowx]

Not a single drop south of town. I hope this swings on down. I have cracks that are 3 inches across in the ground.

Outflow boundary on the way - hope it holds together!

Falling apart as we speak. And we just had a power blip too to rub salt in.

Not sure where you’re located, I assume closer to the coast? While it’s over (or almost) the boundaries are there and it may bring some liquid gold to the coastal counties tomorrow. Hope it comes to fruition for everyone!

[Cromagnum]

I'm near Rosharon. We got a sprinkle but not even enough for my driveway to appear wet.

[CrashTestDummy]

Rain!! Glorious rain!!!

About .20” in northern Brazoria county. We’ll take what we can get. I hear thunder off in the distance. Can’t tell if it’s coming or going yet.

[Cromagnum]

Is there any realistic chance the rest of this week, or pretty much over until something comes from the gulf like was shown earlier?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Finished with a hair over 5 inches and a dead moccasin from my neighbors pond ....