April 2018- April To End Cooler/Drier Than Normal

[Texaspirate11]

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLORADO...NORTH CENTRAL
WHARTON...CENTRAL AUSTIN...WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND AND SOUTHWESTERN
WALLER COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 936 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Columbus, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sealy, Columbus, Eagle Lake, East Bernard, Weimar, Wallis, San
Felipe, New Ulm, Cat Spring, Sheridan, Altair, Frelsburg and Rock
Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

[Cromagnum]

Getting squirrelly near Pasadena. Much ado about nothing south of Hwy 6 though.

[unome]

some nasty winds as it blew through

http://www.khou.com/article/news/local/ ... -534922645

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/ ... autoreload
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 40452/0100

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0U-1-200
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0S-1-200

cooler temps are nice

[redneckweather]

The cluster of storms off to our North look to stay out of our area. In fact, I don't see much of anything with the actual frontal passage either later on. Nice chamber of commerce weather over the next couple of days.

Have you looked at a water vapor loop of the shortwave in Mexico that is racing in this direction, about to collide with the front coming from the north? The cluster to the north is just a teaser...

Not a drop of rain up where I am but honestly, I didn't need it so not complaining. I still can't walk in my garden after getting pounded from that heavy rain event not long ago.

[jasons2k]

Only got .15” here. Pretty much a bust for me too.

[tireman4]

Sunny and Mild today in the Houston Metroplex while many of our staff are at the National Tropical Weather Conference....

[tireman4]

336
FXUS64 KHGX 041004
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
504 AM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler/drier air is making its way into SE TX this morning in the
wake of the overnight cold front and its associated storms. These
storms have moved into the Gulf and the entire system is continu-
ing to truck E/NE. Mild and sunny weather is expected today...but
will be short-lived (in a sense) given the rather progressive up-
coming weather pattern. We will be seeing a series of cold fronts
sweep across the area (some with rain, some without) through this
forecast cycle. All of this appears to be courtesy of the persis-
tent NW flow aloft as the weak ridging out west holds in place.

The next cold front is progged for Fri night/Sat morning as scat-
tered POPS return to the area. The convection that is expected to
form will likely be along the front itself (given the cap)...with
the better dynamics/moisture over our E/NE counties and locations
further out. (See SPC`s Day 3 Outlook for more details.) The next
cold front is still progged for Mon and should be relatively dry,
given the shorter return moisture timing. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Strong CAA should keep winds 20-30 knots this morning over the Gulf
with winds gradually relaxing this afternoon near shore then
shifting offshore with winds becoming more northeasterly. High
pressure will quickly slide east turning winds east and then
southeast tonight/Thursday. Moisture starts to return and may see a
few showers or isolated thunderstorms in mainly the southwest
waters. Southerly flow strengthens Friday in response to falling
pressures over the Southern Plains with a cold front plunging
through the state Friday night and pushing off the coast Saturday
between 5-8am. SCA strength offshore flow in the wake of the front
relaxing Sunday.

45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR across the area this morning except for GLS where tail end of
MVFR ceilings hanging on. North and northeast gusty winds this
morning should be slowly veering to the northeast late this morning
and winds gradually diminishing this afternoon. Expect winds to
decouple overnight at the northern inland sites. Moisture return is
shallow Thursday and could see isolated showers or thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 51 73 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 73 50 74 66 82 / 0 0 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 72 63 74 70 78 / 10 0 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[unome]

https://www.facebook.com/NWSHouston/pos ... 17583129:0

Preliminary storm survey results determined that a wet microburst produced winds up to 80 mph over Hobby Airport around 11:53 PM CDT last night. The debris was blown to the south-southeast.

some nasty winds as it blew through

http://www.khou.com/article/news/local/ ... -534922645

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/ ... autoreload
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 40452/0100

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0U-1-200
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0S-1-200

cooler temps are nice

[tireman4]

Microburst over Hobby Airport

[srainhoutx]

Moisture is returning very quickly off the Gulf this morning and a vigorous disturbance to our WSW should approach our Region tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe may develop tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening and the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms mainly along and N of the I-10 Corridor and locations to our N and E.

[tireman4]

Alluding to Srain's AFD...

[tireman4]

Todays Weather Outlook

[jasons2k]

With cap issues and the front coming in overnight, I have this sinking feeling it's going to be mostly dry again. I'm not getting my hopes up this time.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into early Saturday morning as a powerful late season cold front sweeps across the region.

Air mass will become increasingly unstable today as surface heating combines with returning moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. Mid level capping should keep development to a minimum through the late morning hours, but this capping starts to erode by early afternoon and this may allow for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop over the warm sector. Given instability and shear parameters in place any storms that can get going in the warm sector this afternoon could go severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

A strong old front will slice into the region tonight and roar off the coast early Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary with a few becoming severe. The greatest severe risk is in the area from College Station to Coldsprings and NE. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

This strong cold front is backed with some very cold air for this time of year with snow and below freezing temperatures expected across portions of OK and KS. Strong cold air advection will onset behind the front driving temperatures into the 50’s by Saturday morning with gusty N winds of 20-30mph. This will produce wind chills in the 40’s Saturday morning. Depending on how quickly clouds clear on Saturday will determine if we see much temperature recovery at all as strong cold air advection will continue into Saturday afternoon. Think most areas will hold in the 50’s all day on Saturday.

Clear skies and calm winds on Saturday night will allow for excellent cooling conditions with lows falling well into the 40’s over much of the area and possibly even some upper 30’s in a few locations. Looks like any chances for freezing low temperatures Sunday morning will remain north of our area across N TX.

Active pattern continues into next week with additional chances for thunderstorms roughly every 2-3 days.

[jasons2k]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Seeing an increase in shower development this afternoon
(moving generally off to the northeast) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s. Cannot rule out some thunder-
storm development later this afternoon, but still looking
for much higher rain chances for our area later this
evening and on through the overnight hours as a cold
front and associated storms move into the area from the
north. Strong to severe storms are still possible with
large hail and damaging winds the primary severe weather
threat (see SPC`s latest Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook).
Behind the front, it will be turning much cooler (Satur-
day`s temperatures will hold steady or even fall during
the day, generally into the 50s inland and in the lower
60s at the coast), it will become breezy (wind advisories
might be needed) and rain chances will decrease as the
day progresses. Sunday morning will be on the cold side
with lows as low as around 40 well inland and around 50
at the coast (record lows are 34 set in 1938 for CLL, 35
set in 1971 for IAH, 34 set in 1939 for HOU and 38 set
in 1938 for GLS). A warming trend begins on Sunday with
rain chances increasing on Monday ahead of the next front
that moves through around Monday evening/night. Tuesday
and Wednesday are still looking coolish and dry, and the
second half of next week is looking warmer and much more
humid as the onshore flow strengthens in response to a
big deepening Central Plains storm system. We could see
our next rain chances beginning on Friday ahead of our
next front.

[Cromagnum]

Cool and dry on the way. Not much else.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, just as I feared - storms went poof! On que just as they approached the house. Sprinkler time.

[redneckweather]

We got popped good up here. Intense lightning and a torrential down pour. I'm glad it was a fast mover with that kind of rain.

[mckinne63]

Just some drizzle here in Stafford. Temps have dropped a bit since I got up at 7am this morning.

[wxdude]

The cap wins again. .01" here in Clute.