MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Still patiently waiting by the Bay
We're just supplying all the energy from the GOM...

stay safe everyone...
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Cromagnum
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Keep an eye on that discrete cell blowing up near Alvin.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 530 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Greater Greenspoint, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Northwestern Bush Intercontinental Airport around 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
unome
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https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
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Mesoscale Discussion 0191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Areas affected...the Upper Texas Coast into southwest and central
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

Valid 282248Z - 290015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

SUMMARY...Gradual weakening is expected into the early evening
hours. An isolated strong to severe storm is still possible where
Tornado Watch 22 remains in effect across the Upper Texas Coast into
parts of southwest and central LA.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretched from near Houston to Fort
Polk LA, then northeast toward far northeastern LA late this
afternoon. A southeastward surging gust front has largely resulted
in weakening of convection in the Sabine Valley vicinity with some
stronger cells still evident just north of Houston and to the east
of Fort Polk. Regional VWP data shows adequate low level shear for
rotating structures, but instability has begun to wane as peak
heating has passed. Given the overall convective trends over the
last hour, continued weakening is expected. However, an isolated
strong to severe storm along or ahead of the outflow boundary cannot
be ruled out and Tornado Watch 22 will continue across the Upper
Texas Coast into parts of southwest and central LA.

..Leitman.. 03/28/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
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DoctorMu
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unome wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:The heavy band is closing in on Cypress from the NW.
getting pretty dark here, need to turn on some lights
It was dusk-like during mid-day here.
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Belmer
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Storms are starting to fire SE of Monterrey in Mexico... we will need to monitor how much development occurs and the movement of them as they move NE/ENE. These could be our overnight boomers. Think those mainly South of I-10 will have to worry about the severe aspect.

Edit to add: Models showed storms firing from this area a couple hours ago. So it is a bit late, though, future trends on the HRRR will be interesting to see if it can catch onto new initialization and the severity of it.
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unome
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still a lot of juice there

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CDT Wed Mar 28 2018

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 282353Z - 290130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may develop across South Texas this evening, with
large hail the main threat. A more likely threat will evolve later
tonight as a storms develop along a southward advancing cold front.
Convective trends are being monitored and a watch may be needed at
some point over the next several hours this evening.

DISCUSSION...Weak convergence was evident across South Texas both in
surface observations and band of cumulus from Duval to Starr county
into adjacent portions of northeast Mexico. Hi-res guidance has been
persistent in storm development early this evening in the vicinity
of this boundary in a weakly capped moderately unstable environment.
However, guidance has been quicker and more robust with this
development than is currently being observed, resulting in quite a
bit of uncertainty. Should storms develop across South Texas or move
into this region from adjacent portions of Mexico, large hail will
be the main concern given steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear profiles. A glance at area VWP data indicates only
weak helicity values with light winds through about 3km. This should
temper any tornado threat.

While uncertainty remains high in the short-term, it appears more
likely that storms will develop later tonight as forcing for ascent
increases in conjunction with a southward advancing cold front. At
this time, it is unclear when a watch may be needed and trends will
be monitored closely.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/28/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
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Texaspirate11
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Hoping to get something if just to wash the pollen away....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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davidiowx
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Texaspirate11 wrote:Hoping to get something if just to wash the pollen away....

Same here! Hopefully the mesoscale models are right, there’s a lot left to provide us south of the I-10 corridor later tonight.
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jasons2k
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2.22” here so far. I’m so glad to see the pollen finally wash away. Watching the new development out to the west and southwest...looks rather impressive so far.
Cromagnum
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Hoping for something south of town. We haven't seen anything yet.
ticka1
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Cromagnum wrote:Hoping for something south of town. We haven't seen anything yet.
nothing for us here on the south of i-10 and east of baytown
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tireman4
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This is not over...
sau27
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Looks like an outflow boundary is hanging from sugarland thru the SE side of town on radar.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote:This is not over...
Flash Flood warning has just been issued until 12:15 am. CLL seeing entraining of cells, with our second potent one over us now..

Image


Sent: 21:18 CDT on 03-28-2018
Effective: 21:18 CDT on 03-28-2018
Expires: 00:15 CDT on 03-29-2018

Event: Flash Flood Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
West central Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Central Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Brazos County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 917 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
College Station, Somerville, Snook, Burton, Millican, Lake
Somerville Dam, Kyle Field, Wellborn, Lyons, Independence, Quarry
and Carlos.
Instructions: Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.
Target Area:
Brazos
Burleson
Grimes
Washington
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srainhoutx
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More rainfall, possibly heavy is coming overnight...
mcd0081.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0081 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1014 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AND SERN TX...NRN AND CTRL LA...CTRL MS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 290213Z - 290800Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAIN RATES SHOULD AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 2 IN/HR. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN RATES SUCH AS THOSE IN URBAN AREAS COULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...NUMERICAL MODELS AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO EMERGE IN THE 02-05Z TIME FRAME...PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR SHOWED A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WEST TEXAS...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AND WITH BLOSSOMING CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. IR SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SAN ANTONIO...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN OBSERVED LIGHTNING. THIS FITS WITH THE OBJECTIVE RAP FORECASTS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK) AND PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND CAN FOCUS RENEWED CELL GROWTH IN MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW. MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE FOCI APPEAR MOST LIKELY IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RECENT RAP FORECASTS SHOW A STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE THAT PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD FIT WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AS A NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF THE LLJ COMMENCES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENT (UPSHEAR FLANK) SITUATED FROM NEAR HOUSTON METRO INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE LOW 60S AT 01Z...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WERE IN THE MID-70S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...THIS MAY FAVOR RENEWED CELL GROWTH NEAR AND JUST INTO THE COLD POOL. GREATER CONCERN FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WILL EXIST AFTER 03-04Z WHEN THE COMBINATION OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT AND AN EXISTING COASTAL FRONT SHOULD ESTABLISH A CONVERGENCE AXIS ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS AND CLUSTERS TO FEED INTO SIMILAR AREAS...AND PERHAPS CONGEAL WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COLD POOL BOUNDARY. IT MAY BE WORTH MONITORING WHERE THE EFFECTIVE TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE COLD POOL AND COLD FRONT EXISTS...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD BE PARTICULARLY ENHANCED. AS OF 02Z...THIS APPEARED TO BE NEAR K11R (BRENHAM TX)...AND THERE WAS A CORRESPONDING CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION NEARBY. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT TRENDS AND RAP FORECASTS COULD PLACE THIS NEAR HOUSTON METRO IN A FEW HOURS. THIS IS YET ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN RATES THAT WILL REACH MAXIMUM VALUES AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 IN/HR...AND WITH A GREATER RISK OF PERSISTENCE OF THESE HEAVIER RATES...FLASH FLOODING SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY. A REGION OF ENHANCED CONCERN WOULD BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ROUGHLY FROM VICTORIA TX...TO HOUSTON METRO...TO LAKE CHARLES. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...THIS ALSO INTERSECTS A LARGE METRO AREA AND SUSTAINED RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WOULD BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD RESULT IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IF HOURLY RAIN RATES CAN PUSH UP TO AROUND 2 IN/HR AND LINGER FOR AT LEAST 90 MINUTES...WITH AT LEAST 5 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. ALL OF THIS SEEMS ACHIEVABLE...BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE DETAILS. FURTHER NORTHEAST...THE SQUALL LINE WAS SHOWING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS IN FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE THAT...INDIVIDUAL CELLS IN THE LINE WERE MOVING AT A LIMITED ENOUGH ANGLE TO THE LINE ORIENTATION TO PRODUCE MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN AN ISOLATED FASHION FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN PORTIONS OF LA/MS AS A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET. LAMERS ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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ticka1
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just friendly advice - if it rains alot overnight - wait until daylight to drive to avoid flooded roads. Going to bed will check during the night on rain.
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don
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Storms are really starting to fire up in the San Antonio area that’s the area to watch as the night goes on..
Cromagnum
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Nasty cell just NE of Matagorda with hail and some rotation.
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DoctorMu
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don wrote:Storms are really starting to fire up in the San Antonio area that’s the area to watch as the night goes on..
Storms are lined up from CLL to San Antonio and the Mexican border without a caboose in sight. 8 inches would not surprise me. Pretty close to 4 in by now - nothing official IMBY since our pup ate the rain gauge!
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