MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Jackson County in south central Texas...
South central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 151 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Boling-Iago to near Point Comfort, moving east
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Matagorda, northwestern Lake Jackson, Angleton, Bay City, Wharton,
Palacios, West Columbia, Sweeny, South Texas Nuclear Plant,
Brazoria, Holiday Lakes, Bailey`s Prairie, Bonney, La Ward,
Sargent, Van Vleck, Boling-Iago, Wild Peach Village, Blessing and
Markham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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Katdaddy
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A line of strong storms is moving across SE TX and the Upper TX Coast currently.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
204 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

TXZ199-200-213-214-226-227-237-238-290800-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Chambers TX-Liberty TX-Galveston TX-Harris TX-
Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
204 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHARTON...GALVESTON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...EASTERN FORT BEND...WESTERN CHAMBERS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA...LIBERTY AND HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Splendora to near Boling-Iago. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri City,
Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas City,
Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, southeastern Rosenberg, Alvin,
Dickinson, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, Humble and West
University Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 213 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Iowa Colony, or 7 miles southwest of Manvel,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Hillcrest and Liverpool around 230 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Chocolate Bayou, Juliff and Rosharon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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DoctorMu
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Sent: 02:13 CDT on 03-29-2018
Effective: 02:13 CDT on 03-29-2018
Expires: 02:30 CDT on 03-29-2018
Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 213 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Iowa Colony, or 7 miles southwest of Manvel,
moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Hillcrest and Liverpool around 230 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Chocolate Bayou, Juliff and Rosharon.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Brazoria
Fort Bend
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

that was quite an alarm clock

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

HGX issues Tornado Warning for Brazoria, Fort Bend [TX] till 2:30 AM CDT

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unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0082
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...SW MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 290714Z - 291300Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AS A LARGE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.0 TO
2.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP INTO
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE QLCS EXTENDED (AT 07Z) FROM NEAR
VICKSBURG MS...TO ALEXANDRIA LA...TO JASPER TX...TO HOUSTON
TX...TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE WAS
DEVELOPING INTO A CONTINUOUS LINE SEGMENT AND WAS BEGINNING TO
SHOW STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED ON A
VARIETY OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...AND IT MAY PUSH EAST OF
THE SABINE RIVER BY 11-12Z BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. FURTHER
NORTHEAST...INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION WAS TO THE NE IN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...BUT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE LINE WAS RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AS NEW UPDRAFTS WERE TENDING TO FORM NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW FROM THE GULF AND THE EXISTING
COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WAS LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND MAY BE MORE FAVORED FOR CONTINUED TRAINING OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE OF STORMS WAS LESS
CONTINUOUS IN THIS AREA LEADING TO SHORTER BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN.
TO THE REAR OF THE LINE...NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WERE IN
EFFECT AS OF 07Z...AND FLASH FLOODING WAS LIKELY ONGOING DUE TO
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVY RAIN RATES. GPS-PW OBSERVATIONS WERE AROUND 1.9 INCHES ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS CLOSELY MATCHED CIRA BLENDED TPW PRODUCT.
VALUES EVEN REACHED AROUND 1.6 INCHES INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THESE WERE IN THE UPPER ECHELON OF MARCH MONTHLY UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONAL HISTORY IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...OBJECTIVE RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

OBSERVED RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. A HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT RAIN GAGE NEAR
CYPRESS MEASURED 0.48 INCHES OF RAIN IN 5 MINUTES. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAS A SHORT PEAK...IT IS INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER END OF WHAT THE
ENVIRONMENT CAN SUPPORT IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS.
THOSE RATES
CORRESPONDED WITH KDP VALUES ON KHGX OF AROUND 3 DEG/KM...WHICH
MAY BE A REASONABLE PROXY ON RADARS FOR THESE SORT OF EXTREMELY
HIGH INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES THIS MORNING.

ONE AREA THAT MAY HAVE A PARTICULARLY ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE FROM JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN TEXAS
(NEAR BEAUMONT) NORTHEAST TO BEAUREGARD...VERNON AND RAPIDES
PARISHES IN LOUISIANA (NEAR ALEXANDRIA). MRMS AND KLCH DUAL POL
ESTIMATES SHOW AROUND 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS SWATH
ALREADY TONIGHT...AND THE CREST HYDROLOGIC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW
ELEVATED MAX UNIT STREAMFLOW VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF ONGOING
FLOODING. AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO THAT AREA...ANY
EXISTING FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
228 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 227 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Greater Hobby Area to near Matagorda, moving east
at 45 mph. Brief tornadoes may be possible along the leading edge
of this line.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Galveston Causeway, Galveston
Island West End, Texas City, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Lake
Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson, South Houston, La Marque,
Santa Fe, Freeport, Seabrook, Clute and Webster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

currently 2 gages ( 3-mile creek & mound creek) over banks & 8 near top on NW portion of flood mapping

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

https://twitter.com/hcfcd
Cromagnum
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Tornado went just south of me. Curious what I'm gonna see when the sun comes up.

Image

Windfield map is eerie. We were right on the edge of a strong rotation.

Image

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unome
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https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/river/?wfo=HGX

HGX issues Tornado Warning for Galveston [TX] till 3:15 AM CDT

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 256 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Santa Fe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
La Marque and Hitchcock around 300 AM CDT.
Bayou Vista and Tiki Island around 315 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 AM CDT.

* At 256 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Santa Fe, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
La Marque and Hitchcock around 300 AM CDT.
Bayou Vista and Tiki Island around 315 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

River Forecast Point Monitor, you can further select WFO to narrow selection

https://nwschat.weather.gov/river.php?state=TX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
240 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the following rivers in Texas...
Trinity River In Liberty affecting Chambers and Liberty Counties

For Trinity River at Liberty, Minor flooding is occuring, with Major flooding forecasted.

The current weather is dominated by a slow moving cold front. This weather system will produce rainfall amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches. The extended outlook is for drier weather.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

240 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for The Trinity River In Liberty
* from Friday afternoon until further notice... Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 0215 AM Thursday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast... Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to rise to near 29.4 feet by Sunday early afternoon.
* At 29.0 feet...Major lowland flooding begins as homes in several subdivisions above Liberty begin flooding. Extensive flooding over much of Liberty County can be expected with each incremental rise in the river.
Last edited by unome on Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
253 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
East central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 AM CDT.

* At 253 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Shoreacres to 6 miles east of Sargent, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and possible brief tornadoes.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Pasadena, League City, Galveston Causeway, Galveston
Island West End, Texas City, southeastern Friendswood, La Porte,
Lake Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe,
Freeport, Seabrook, Clute, Webster, Hitchcock, Kemah and Surfside
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 330 AM CDT.

* At 311 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Tiki Island, or 7 miles southeast of Hitchcock,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Galveston Island West End, Scholes Field, Schlitterbahn, Moody
Gardens and Offatts Bayou around 315 AM CDT.
Galveston Pleasure Pier around 320 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 290817Z - 290915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty, locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
will remain possible early this morning near the upper
Texas/southwest Louisiana coast. However, watch issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A squall line is pushing east around 35 kt early this
morning along the upper Texas coast, and this evolution should
continue over the next several hours. Ahead of this line, ample
low-level moisture is yielding MLCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg, despite
less impressive lapse rates with eastward extent. In turn, forced
ascent along the leading edge of the line may further foster some
stronger embedded cells, capable of locally gusty, damaging winds.
While deeper-layer shear vectors (e.g., 0-3km and 0-6km) are largely
line parallel, LCH VWP data suggest sufficient streamwise vorticity
in the lowest 1 km or so, such that a line-leading brief tornado or
two could also occur.

..Picca/Thompson.. 03/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

48-hr rainfall reports

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803290839

highest for Harris County
...Harris County...
6 WSW Spring 7.84 in 0320 AM 03/29
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Katdaddy
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An area of light to moderate rain continues to push E behind the line of strong to severe thunderstorms earlier this morning. Skies will clear later this morning from W to E across SE TX as beautiful, cooler, and drier weather arrives through Easter weekend.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning briefing from Jeff regarding Flooding along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River:

Flood Warning has been issued for the West Fork of the San Jacinto River at US 59 (Humble)

Rainfall amounts of 4-5 inches over portions of the Cypress and Spring Creek watersheds is resulting in a rapid rise of the river this morning. The river will likely rise above flood stage this morning and crest about .5 ft above flood stage late today into early Friday. The river is forecast to crest around 50.0 ft. At levels above 49.3 ft minor low land flooding begins downstream (east) of US 59 along the north and south banks of the river in portions of the Northshore and Bellaeu Woods subdivisions. This flooding will mainly impact low roads in these subdivisions, but residents in elevated structures should be aware they may become cut-off as long as the river remains elevated. Additionally at these levels the river turn arounds at the US 59 bridge will be inundated.

It is possible the river could rise slightly higher than currently being forecast
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Another Update from Jeff:

Rainfall over the last 24 hours has averaged 2-4 inches over much of the area north of I-10 with a band of 6-7 inches from College Station to Lake Livingston.

This is resulting in significant amounts of run-off in area rivers and rise to flood stage and higher are likely on some of these basins.

Trinity River:

Upstream inflows will result in floodgate operations on Lake Livingston and a rise in the river downstream of the lake to major flood levels near Liberty. Major low land flooding is expected along the river starting Saturday morning and lasting into next week. Some subdivisions near Liberty will become cut-off

East Fork San Jacinto River:

River is rising rapidly, but currently forecast to remain below flood stage

West Fork San Jacinto River:

River is rising rapidly and will exceed banks this morning and near moderate flood levels this evening at US 59 (Humble). Some residents near the river in the Northshore and Belleau Woods subdivisions may become cut-off

Brazos:

River is rising, but forecast to remain below flood stage from Bryan to below Richmond

Navasota River:

River is rising but forecast to remain below flood stage

Colorado River:

River is in a rapid rise at Smithville and LaGrange this morning as upstream flood wave from Austin moves downstream. Current forecast keep all points along the Colorado River below flood stage.

Spring Creek:

Creek is at bankfull from the headwaters downstream to east of Hegar Rd. Minor flooding is possible along the creek in this reach this morning mainly impacting low lands near the creek.

Cypress Creek:

Creek is elevated, but will remain below flood stage

Willow Creek:

Creek is elevated and nearing crest below flood stage



Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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