MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[BlueJay]

It's Texas Independence Day! Fly your Texas flag on this beautiful March 2nd day!

[srainhoutx]

Rain chances are increasing beginning late Sunday night into next Tuesday. The guidance is becoming a bit more aggressive suggesting area wide chance of showers, some heavy with thunderstorms ahead and along our next cold front. I continue to see rather cool temperatures for early March with days where highs struggle to reach the low 60's and lows in the coldest spots may near 32 to 34F after next weeks cold front.

[srainhoutx]

While we await the next front and rainfall tomorrow and Monday, the Global guidance is suggesting a rather potent Southern Storm with a vigorous upper trough and surface low pressure system exiting the Southern Rockies into Texas and Oklahoma late next weekend. Behind this system is a shot of rather chilly air by early March standards.

[Texaspirate11]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

[weatherrabbit]

Very Interesting..

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't read too much into those warmer than normal SST's in the Gulf. The Gulf is always warm enough to support Tropical Cyclones. What we will need to watch is some of the seasonal forecast and the ENSO. It appears ENSO will likely be neutral at best during peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin. The very long range ECWMF seasonal forecast suggest above normal pressures across the entire Atlantic Basin including the Gulf and below normal rainfall. No those seasonal forecasts will likely change in the next several months, but as of early March there is a lot of uncertainty on what the sensible may bring this summer.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful satellite image across SE TX this afternoon with scattered low and mid level clouds. Getting a few rays of sun between the clouds with some isolated showers across S Central TX. Rain and thunderstorms ramp up for Monday and Monday night ahead of the next cool front but will be followed by beautiful, cooler, and drier weather from Tuesday through Thursday. Everything is turning increasingly green every day as Spring 2018 approaches.

[sau27]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.

[mckinne63]

Our Bradford Pear tree is blooming! I have not seen so many blooms on it since Ike. It bloomed right after Ike, than it seemed to just stop blooming. Seeing some bluebonnets pop up in the gardens also, amongst the weeds Was a nice day today, nice breeze whilst we finished trimming the crepe myrtle. We were late this year on trimming, she was already starting to get lots of green.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday evening briefing from Jeff:

Showers and thunderstorms likely Monday afternoon and evening

The next cold front will be moving across the region Monday afternoon and evening providing another chance of rainfall. Moisture is on the increase with SE winds drawing Gulf moisture into the region this afternoon. Strong capping (warm mid level air) is preventing much thunderstorm development today and there is now well defined disturbance to our SW that looks like it could weaken the cap. Expect generally scattered showers moving inland off the Gulf this evening, overnight, and into early Monday.

Heating on Monday into the lower 80’s combined with cooling in the mid levels will help to erode the capping inversion. Frontal lift and the tail end of a trough across the central plains will help to lift the moist air mass resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Instability values are moderate by Monday afternoon with CAPE of 2,000-2,500 J/kg over the region so a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and strong winds the most likely severe threats…even though the threat is low. Heavy rainfall also will be possible Monday afternoon and evening as moisture increases and storms may have a period of cell training. Think most areas will experience .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with a few locations seeing 2-3 inches where the strongest storms track and under any sustained cell training.

Cold front will move off the coast Tuesday morning ushering in a cool refreshing air mass with lows falling into the 40’s Wednesday and Thursday and highs in the 60’s. Moisture begins to return by Friday ahead of another disturbance that may result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

[Texaspirate11]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

I wouldn't read too much into this right now for hurricane season as so many other factors play a role. However, what I do wonder is how this plays into our spring storm and rainfall season. A warmer western gulf means more moisture and unstable air streaming in.

I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....

[Ptarmigan]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.

[Texaspirate11]

This is interesting - from the HGX NWS TWITTER FEED


NWS Houston
The Western Gulf warmer than normal for this time of year which could feed back to warmer than normal conditions in March. Here are the last 3 years Gulf sea surface temperatures. January and February 2018 warmer across the coastal areas than 2017 while 2016 was normal.

I would think the warmer Gulf of Mexico is more favorable for rain and severe weather.

I believe more so than hurricane season our nws is concerned about us getting thru Spring/Flooding....they have mentioned this tidbit about "warmer than usual" quite a bit ....I dont believe anyones 8 ball predictions on hurricane season this far out....

[DoctorMu]

Nasty humid air this am.

Definitely more worried about this severe season.

Possibly year of the shear? re: hurricanes?

[srainhoutx]

Active weather day across our Region with a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms as a slow moving cold front advances toward SE Texas by this evening. The overnight guidance slowed the progression of that front by about 6-8 hours allowing for thunderstorm development further West that place most of our area in the Marginal Risk Outlined Area. A very strong jet streak/speed max is quickly moving across Mexico toward Texas and that feature looks to be the trigger for rapid thunderstorm development this afternoon. The greatest risk, although not that high is for damaging storm winds and small hail. The front should be near the Coast around midnight ushering in cooler and drier air Tuesday with an additional shot of some cooler and drier air on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

Areas affected...CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051731Z - 052000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to develop across parts
of central and east Texas eastward into Louisiana. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary threat. Weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through the Arklatex extending southwestward into northeast and
central Texas. Convection is developing along the front. Surface
winds ahead of the front are veered to the southwest with dewpoints
in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range according to the RAP. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport
shows some veering of the winds with height with 0-6 km shear
estimated near 40 kt. Although deep-layer shear likely weakens with
southwestward extend along the front, the shear environment should
be enough to support a marginal severe threat this afternoon. Hail
will be possible with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
will be possible as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen over
the next few hours.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[jasons2k]

Look out in Fayette County - mean looking cell headed that way.

[Electric Lizard]

The CF just got to Greenvine in SW WA County. Good wind shift with cool, dry air. The convection looks like it'll miss us to the east and west.
Edit: a good cell just blew up to our west headed this way. We can almost always use rain.

[jasons2k]

Oh wow. The line is splitting. I had my lawn treated today and was counting on the rain. If I have to run my sprinklers....

[Texaspirate11]

Congrats Galveston

NWS Hou
Update: As of 4 PM, the City of Galveston has set a preliminary record high temperature of 80 degrees. This breaks the old record of 77 degrees, which was set 138 years ago back in 1880!!