FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Wind is quickly shifting back to the SE in response to the next system. The "warm front" is pretty diffuse now as the warm, moist flow washes out the shallow cold air.
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Katdaddy
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Partly sunny skies along the Upper TX Coast with temps in the upper 70s and a few 80s currently. To the NW of Houston there are areas of fog and cooler temps ahead of the warm front that will be pushing further inland this afternoon. Only a slight chance of a thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. It will feel like Spring today behind the warm front.

I must say its very nice to see the sun with partly cloudy skies and and the temp at 77F.
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jasons2k
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Already up to 80F here.
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite imagery late this morning shows ceilings
beginning to scatter at CXO, IAH, HOU, SGR, and LBX. Intermittent
MVFR conditions will be possible at these terminals through early
afternoon but decent mixing will allow for VFR conditions to
prevail for at least a few hours before sunset. Daytime heating
may also contribute to isolated SHRA developing near these
terminals this afternoon.

VLIFR conditions continue to impact CLL and UTS (located north of
a stationary boundary also evident on visible satellite bisecting
Southeast Texas from VCT to LFK) and are expected to linger
through mid- afternoon before the stationary boundary begins to
lift north as a warm front and allows for ceilings to lift to
MVFR. Periods of VLIFR sea fog will continue to impact GLS through
the afternoon. Webcams have shown some improvement around the
island and expect a window for IFR/MVFR this afternoon before fog
rolls back in this evening.

A developing 40 knot low level jet overnight and associated
mixing should help mitigate against overall fog potential, but
should result in ceilings lowering to IFR after 06Z. Associated
moisture advection may result in a few SHRA developing again early
Saturday morning.

Southerly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon should decrease into
the 6-10 knot range after sunset. Southerly winds are expected to
increase into the 10-15 knot range during the day Saturday ahead
of a cold front approaching the terminals after 21Z.
Cromagnum
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Bring the cold dry air back.
mckinne63
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Cromagnum wrote:Bring the cold dry air back.
Yes! Not ready for hot and humid. I park in a parking garage at the office, the car was so thick with smoggy stuff I had to roll down the windows and turn on the defrosters. Have the a/c on in the house. I have said it before and will say it again, shorts in February is just wrong :lol:
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jasons2k
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Well gang, it looks more and more like the Siberian Express just isn't going to pay us a visit after all. I have to admit, in Mid-January, what I was seeing in Siberia & in the long-range models had me pretty scared. I thought it was going to come down like an avalanche, a classic old-fashioned blue norther. One for the ages.

And then it kept getting further...and further it out. Then it would go...and come...and go...then gone.

Yes, it looks like it's gonna get chilly again in March (maybe....we might lose that too), but I think Spring has sprung and IAH has seen its last freeze until this fall. I'm gonna give it one more week to be safe and then it's planting time for me. I can't wait - there is nothing that signals hope, youth, freshness, and life better than a thriving spring garden! (except babies, puppies and kittens of course!)

Happy Friday to all - if you like the warmth, get out and enjoy some sun. :)
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srainhoutx
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We will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.
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We will need to watch radar trends closely next few hours to see when the convection starts building north of I-10 as the frontal boundary slides southward in our area. Latest few HRRR runs are becoming a slight concern right along I-10 here in Houston. As the storms fire off to our north and become linear as they move south, trends are that the line of storms will slow down and train across our area. In addition, as Steve mentioned, disturbances will ride along that boundary from our SW throughout the night into tomorrow to increase the rainfall. With a very moist atmosphere right now with PW values high, we could see some very heavy rain tonight.

1-2 inches looks promising and depending on where the band of rain slows down and stalls, those areas could see 4 inches with some isolated 5-6 inches... which right along I-10 (+/- 20 miles south/north) is where the HRRR wants to put the bullseye of that precipitation right in Houston.
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When does it look like the rain will start and end ?
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Hope it holds off. I have a flight out of Hobby at 8AM
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djjordan
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I drove through an absolute torrential downpour between Tomball and Beltway 8 on 249 between 2:30 and 3:15 AM. Could not see a thing!!! So much precipitable moisture for these storms to work with.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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[i] MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0046 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1023 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 251520Z - 252120Z SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS SEEN IN THE GOES-16 7.3/MICRON WV IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST AND IS FOSTERING AN EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL LA. MOISTURE IS RATHER WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AGAIN INCLUDES A CONTRIBUTION IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS FROM DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LIFTING UP FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST OVER SOUTHEAST TX...BUT THERE IS A POOL OF MUCAPE VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 1000+ J/KG POOLED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT UP OVER THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND GAINING SOME ORGANIZATION WITHOUT ISSUE THIS MORNING. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SO THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TX INITIALLY AND THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LA WITH TIME AS GREATER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSPORT OCCURS HERE IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. ALREADY LOCAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR...AND WITH SOME PERIODIC REPEATING/TRAINING NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL TOTALS THAT COULD REACH UP INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MOIST OVERALL AND SO THE ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES FOCUS AND THEN PERHAPS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA. ORRISON ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV... [/i]
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stormlover
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Is the Beaumont area done with rain today srain?
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jasons2k
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Sent from Jeff close to 9AM:
Same pattern continues to repeat over the area with the same results…fog, clouds, and rainfall.

Two completely different seasons over SE TX this morning being separated by a cold front currently stalling just inland from the coast. South of this front it is extremely humid and warm with dewpoints in the lower 70’s while north of the front the temperatures are in the 50’s with dewpoints in the 40’s and 50’s. Mid level short wave riding NE in the upper level flow out of NE MX has been resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the north side of the front boundary or roughly NW of a line from Victoria to Sugar Land to The Woodlands. Radar estimates indicate this activity is producing 1-2 inches of rainfall, but has been moving at a fairly decent clip to keep flooding from occurring. Appears back edge of the showers and thunderstorms is advancing into the western portions of SE TX as the mid level short wave moves across the area. The surface front has shown little to no movement in the last few hours even though models suggest it will lift northward today. Think rainfall north of the boundary is helping to reinforce the surface boundary and will prevent much northward movement.

Should begin to see a break in the rainfall by late morning as the short wave moves off to the NE. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possibly mainly NW of the US 59 corridor and totals are already nearing 2.0-2.5 inches over portions of Grimes and Washington Counties. With the front stalled in the area through today any additional disturbances exiting MX across our area could spark new showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Front will get a push overnight and move offshore with drier air mass filtering in for Monday. Break from the gloom will be short lived as the old surface front begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Tuesday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop across the are Tuesday and Wednesday as the warm air mass pushes northward and another front moves southward across the region Wednesday evening. This front should have a better push and dry out the area for a few days late next week.

Hydro:

Recent rainfall over portions of NE/E/SE TX is resulting in rises on area rivers. Rivers…especially the Trinity…will continue to see responses due to the rainfall and run-off being generated. Portions of the Trinity River may approach flood stage this week along with rises on the Navasota and Brazos due to rainfall this morning.
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srainhoutx
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I've received 3.40 inches of rainfall since the early morning thunderstorms. So locations across Waller/Montgomery/Liberty/San Jacinto Counties have exceeded 5 inches of rainfall. More rainfall is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with the approach of our next front to end a very dreary/foggy/cool month of February. I am so ready for Spring and sunshine. We've endured an eventful Winter across our Region and much of Texas.

Hang on to your hat. The first half of March looks very unsettled and cool.
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Katdaddy
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The severe weather threat has pushed E and NE of the Houston-Galveston areas and into LA this evening. Who is ready for sunny Spring days? Onward to the March thread.
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I received .22 inches today.
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sambucol
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srainhoutx wrote:I've received 3.40 inches of rainfall since the early morning thunderstorms. So locations across Waller/Montgomery/Liberty/San Jacinto Counties have exceeded 5 inches of rainfall. More rainfall is likely Tuesday/Wednesday with the approach of our next front to end a very dreary/foggy/cool month of February. I am so ready for Spring and sunshine. We've endured an eventful Winter across our Region and much of Texas.

Hang on to your hat. The first half of March looks very unsettled and cool.
I’m wondering about hurricane season this year. Any ideas if it will be quite active? Especially in GOM.
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srainhoutx
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I think it's still far too early to accurately make predictions about the upcoming Hurricane Season as of today. The very early indicators suggest a neutral pattern near peak season. Frankly I think we need a break this year with so many still in restoration mode across Coastal Texas. So many of our neighbors Have yet to even begin the rebuilding process. We met with a family last Friday to finally begin the rebuilding process after a long fought battle with Flood Insurance that actually will cover their loss. Only 20% of home owners in SE Texas had flood insurance before Harvey came calling. The average reconstruction cost for rebuilding is running about 175K. Think of those that had zero flood insurance coverage. A vast majority of people do not have 250 Thousand Dollars lying around to rebuild and replace the contents they lost.

Check back in early April when our KHOU Weather Forum group head down to S Padre Island for the 2018 National Tropical Weather Conference. By then we may have a better feel for the upcoming Hurricane Season. Always remember it only takes one landfalling Hurricane to make for a very bad Season!
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