FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[snowman65]

I think Phil (groundhog) missed it this year....lol

[srainhoutx]

I think Phil (groundhog) missed it this year....lol

You never know. It's still chilly and nasty out there and with a high impact solar event to hit the Northern Hemisphere today, things could change down the road. The sun has been extremely quiet throughout the Winter and now we are seeing solar activity pick up. The MJO after being stuck in a very high amplitude in Phase 7 looks to trend toward a less amplified Phase 8 which impacts our part of the World. The latest CFSv2 Climate Models suggest March may come in like a lion with more wild weather and below normal temperatures. Time will tell.

[tireman4]

A dreary Tuesday........

[tireman4]

Possible changes in the Jet Stream?

[brooksgarner]

Not planting that garden, yet!

[snowman65]

Not planting that garden, yet!

You really can't till mud anyway....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131732
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1132 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Upper disturbance kicking off the shra/tstms across the e/ne parts
of the area will be moving out of the region this afternoon.
Should see another hour or two of tstm treat in the metro area,
then back to iso/sct shra for the remainder of the day.
Regardless, anticipate mainly IFR conditions throughout the day. A
warm front will be moving toward the coast and inland overnight.
Look for typical conditions associated with these features:
periods of dz, -ra, fog & low ceilings. IFR/LIFR conditions will
persist until close to lunch time Wed before slow improvement
occurs. 47

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests the coldest air will be located to our West while we remain wet and cloudy.

[DoctorMu]

Possible changes in the Jet Stream?

That's a late winter La Nina pattern.


Is there a risk of an early severe season for Texas in March and early April?

In 2011--a La Niña year-- tornadoes killed more than 550 people, higher than in the previous 10 years combined.


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 135146.htm

Something to keep in mind as the SW flow continues and temps will ride up and down the roller coaster. Rodeo season and Spring Break could feature some bronco busting cells. Be careful what you wish for re: warm weather with this pattern.

[jasons2k]

Bring it. Last year was the first time in years when either the cold shelf waters or the cap didn't kill the whole season. Would be nice to see some action for a change.

And yes, I can say this because I had to replace my roof after last April's ten-minute hail storm.

[Texaspirate11]

Tomorrow /Thursday we'll get teased by Mother Nature with warm weather
then back to this cold dreary horrible weather - 52 days we haven't seen 80.....that aint right.
I will party when it hits 90....

[jasons2k]

Tomorrow /Thursday we'll get teased by Mother Nature with warm weather
then back to this cold dreary horrible weather - 52 days we haven't seen 80.....that aint right.
I will party when it hits 90....

That makes two of us!

Clouds and an e/ese flow over relatively cool waters may keep things a bit cooler than forecast the next couple of days according to Jeff. We’ll see what happens...

[Heat Miser]

Every day I go to work and every day it gets cloudy. By the time I get off duty it's foggy more days than not. There's a reason depression increases during the winter. I guess without this disgusting weather we wouldn't appreciate the glorious Spring and Summer right around the bend. Bring it.

[DoctorMu]

Bring it. Last year was the first time in years when either the cold shelf waters or the cap didn't kill the whole season. Would be nice to see some action for a change.

And yes, I can say this because I had to replace my roof after last April's ten-minute hail storm.

No, thanks. Our current home insurance deductible is too high! I've replaced 2 roofs in our old home, and had an F0 tornado hop though the yard and toss around the A/C unit across the street and tear the roof off a nearby apartment. We usually see a tornado in the Brazos Valley most every year. Bryan was hit by an F2 in May 2016, causing severe damage to 153 homes. Snow doesn't tear the roof off a house.


One of the likely long-term effects of climate change is an earlier and more severe spring severe weather/tornado season in Texas and the Deep South. The Fall season may be more robust for the South as well - the effect in the Fall and Texas may be more complicated (not better or worse).

[srainhoutx]

Foggy dreary weather appears to be the theme over the next 7 days. A warm front is currently along the Coast and should slowly drift inland throughout the day with a return flow off the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf. There is some concerns that the front expected Friday may stall across Metro Houston as the strongest energy that would assist in pushing the front off the Coast is well NE of us in the Great Lakes Region. Look for chances of drizzle and fog today with rain chances increasing Friday as the front nears Central Texas. Rain chances and foggy conditions look to continue into next week.

[Katdaddy]

Happy Valentine's Day. Give yourself extra travel time this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all of SE TX until 10AM. Another day of clouds and some showers ahead but temps may hit the low 70s. The gloomy weather continues through the weekend.

[jasons2k]

One of the likely long-term effects of climate change is an earlier and more severe spring severe weather/tornado season in Texas and the Deep South. The Fall season may be more robust for the South as well - the effect in the Fall and Texas may be more complicated (not better or worse).

This is true, and a trend I have been monitoring. The outbreak in South Alabama a few years ago (was in Enterprise?) was a wake-up call. I lived in Lubbock during my college years, and for the most part, our storms along the coast are vanilla compared to those up on the High Plains. The mix of HP and LP supercells up there along the dryline are truly a marvel, so long as you don’t get caught under one in the middle of nowhere. We tend to get multi-cellular storms with straight-line winds and EF-O tornadoes.

[tireman4]

Be careful out there. Traffic is not for the meek...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

.AVIATION...
Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions with periods of light rain or drizzle
will continue through midday with some improvement possible to high-
end IFR or possible low-end MVFR during the afternoon hours. A warm
front lifting inland from the coast this morning will result in light
east or northeast winds veering to the southeast or south during the
day. Any modest improvement in ceilings or visibilities in the afternoon
hours will lower again back to the lower-end of IFR this evening with
loss of heating and potentially LIFR/VLIFR again late this evening
through tomorrow morning. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Dense fog that developed last night will continue this morning,
lingering through mid-day before improving away from the coast for
the afternoon. Today and tomorrow look to be warm, with highs in
the 70s, with fog likely developing again across the area
overnight. In advance of a cold front, we may see drizzle and even
isolated to widely scattered light showers in this time, but
any rainfall amounts will be light. A cold front will move
through Friday afternoon and evening, which will blunt
temperatures Friday and make for a cooler weekend before another
warmup early next week. The active pattern continues with another
cold front in the back half of next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Observations and webcams show areas of dense fog across the area,
and even where fog is not strictly dense (1/4 mile or less)
visibility is still pretty poor. High clouds are kind of ruining
the satellite presentation, but those areas of fog are still
apparent. Some drizzle and even an isolated light shower are seen
on radar.

Look for this dense fog to continue into the morning hours, with
some slow improvement into mid-day, primarily away from the
coast. Away from the Gulf, we may see a brief respite from the fog
this afternoon. Sea fog will continue to impact the immediate
coast right through the day.

Temperatures are not expected to fall much, if at all in the
remaining nighttime hours. This will get our temperatures started
a good ten degrees warmer than yesterday, and will help
temperatures rise to around 70 degrees despite mostly cloudy to
overcast skies. I did nudge down forecast highs a little from
earlier today as short range models are coming in a touch cooler,
but not much change made here.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Fog comes back tonight, and may return with a vengeance as low
level moisture continues to surge dewpoints easily up into the
60s, particularly with sea fog at the coast. On the other hand,
the wind may help mitigate things a little. They`ll be a bit
stronger, and on a trajectory that`s not quite as favorable for
sea fog. The high dewpoints will keep temperatures overnight a
good ten degrees warmer again tonight, and help boost temperatures
Thursday even higher into the 70s (and into the 70s for up north
who won`t quite make it there today).

It`s probably not a surprise, but fog is a possibility again
Thursday night, and a near certainty at the coast thanks to sea
fog. Will just put the sea fog in the weather grids for now as
fog forecasts at 36-48 hours are just begging to bust, but it`s
definitely on the table as the ingredients are there and just have
to come together right.

Meanwhile, another cold front will be on the doorstep, and ready
to move through Friday afternoon and evening. Look for rain
chances to pick up, particularly near and east and north of I-45
and I-10, respectively. Dynamics aloft look pretty lousy, so while
uplift on the front may manage to squeeze out some showers,
particularly as 700 heights begin to fall and ease up on the
mammoth cap we have in place, don`t expect much out of these.

LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The better chance for rain looks to come Friday night and
Saturday as a side lobe of the upper jet gives us a quasi-right
entrance region location and the upper trough brings in some
cyclonic vorticity advection, both of which should help support
upward motion. Still, the better environment looks to be more for
our northern neighbors, so they`ll have the highest PoPs and QPF.

By the time any lingering showers on the diffuse frontal boundary
clear out, winds will quickly shift back to onshore Sunday,
pushing a warm front back through the area. This will warm temps
up and keep a low chance for showers continuing into the next
week, right until the next front comes into the picture towards
the middle of next week. The guidance continues to put forward an
envelope in which the broad picture has good agreement, but many
subtle details that will impact our sensible weather continue to
be widely different - and in many ways the GFS and Euro have
flipped on the scenario they prefer. Again, the end of the
forecast period remains a bit of a "forecast of least regret", and
while generally favoring a warmer, wetter forecast (also in
keeping with the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks), allows for a
quick shift towards cooler and drier if this front appears to
bring more significant impacts to the area.

MARINE...

Winds will gradually veer to the southeast today as a warm front
approaches the coast and moves inland. Periods of dense sea fog
could end up being a prolonged event considering the next cold
front is not forecast to move off the coast until possibly over
the weekend. Until the front arrives, look for light to moderate
onshore winds, 2 to 5 foot seas and periods of fog and rain. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 63 75 61 68 / 20 10 20 10 30
Houston (IAH) 73 63 77 63 73 / 20 10 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 66 61 69 63 67 / 20 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...
Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

The warm front is practically on top of me. Looks like winds south of the front are more from the S and SE, versus ESE, so we may have a chance at 70's after all.

[srainhoutx]

This day in SE Texas History...123 years ago...

Matt Lanza, Verified account @mattlanza · 1h1 hour ago
Mild Valentine's Day in #Houston today, but 123 years ago, we were dealing with 20" of snow, as was much of SE Texas and SW Louisiana. The story in four parts @SpaceCityWX: https://spacecityweather.com/houston-sn ... galveston/ … #houwx #txwx #lawx