JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[DoctorMu]

Will we be able to uncover our plants before May?

You still have plants worth covering?!? I think Tuesday got pretty much everything that wasn't inside, but I haven't checked our greenhouse and tool shed yet. The frigid weather even got a hummingbird.

Sorry to hear about the hummingbird!
I'm not convinced that everything is dead yet but the hibiscus (not totally freeze dried) and philodendron (not totally mush) are no longer lush. I'm going to hold out on removal for a while.

Note to self: Gardenias, Dianella, and Aspidistra were able to withstand 15F temperatures.

All of our shrubs survived. Can't plant tropicals and subtropicals up in CLL, anyway. Heck, the Na+ filled (and thus alkaline) tap water here will kills them. Planted Gardenias and azaleas last 1 month up here when we first moved to Texas 25 years ago. I learned a lot of bitter lawn and garden lessons quickly in this area of Texas!

[DoctorMu]

A burst of heavy rain at Mom’s today in Pearland. Its been awhile since I have seen puddles form in the old yard and begin to rise onto the patio which brought back memories as a little boy. As a little weather geek, I would judge each rain event on how far the water moved up the patio. Excitement would increase as the water moved up higher and higher on the patio. Half way up was amazing and to the top was unreal. I have seen the yard become ocean many times growing up. Vivid memories of the June 1976 rain event which dropped 7” of rain and brought water to the top of the patio and I will never forget Claudette 1979 which also brought water to the top of the patio and into the garage. Thankfully Mom’s house has not flooded yet over the years but came close with Claudette, Allison, and Harvey.

Hey, those puddles look familiar!! We get similar puddles during rain spells, and the 2-acre lake that's 3" deep around our house when we get a lot of rain. During Harvey, we were an island for almost a week.

Having to make some minor repairs out in the tool shed this afternoon, and the walk out there is an adventure of missing where the water is deepest, and where the pups have been.

Our old home in CLL used to pool rain. We were lower than other yards, and drainage in the backyard was towards the house!. Got crushed in the Oct 1994 flood! Put in a French drain on one side and eventually moved across town to higher ground sloping away from the house. Outcome was far better with Harvey - feel very fortunate.

[BlueJay]

Just watched Blake's rocking weather report for this week on KHOU. He reported that we should have mostly a beautiful sunny week. Thanks for the good news Blake! I plan to enjoy the thaw while I can.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like we will have a marginal risk of a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms in the wee hour of tomorrow morning as the Pacific front advances across our Region there is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms NE of Metro Houston, but better dynamics will be well NE of our Region as a potent Winter Storm exits the 4 Corners into the Central Plains and on N and East.

Looking to the first of February, I continue to see growing trends via the overnight Ensemble schemes that continue to trend colder and toward an Upper Air Pattern capable of delivering much colder air in early to mid February at least. Perhaps someone will start a New Topic for February as we are rapidly heading toward the end of January.

01202018 814temp_new.gif

01202018 814prcp_new.gif

01202018 teleconnection 4indices.png

01212018 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

There were cold blasts in 1972, 1984, and 1989.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221008
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
408 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Front is in the process of moving thru the area. Lack of
instability and some capping has limited areal coverage and
intensity. Precipitation should be near or off the coast by
sunrise...taking the sea fog with it. Clearing skies and a much
drier airmass will filter in during the day allowing RH`s to dip
into the 25-30% range during the day with nw winds 10-20 mph.
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible.

Dry, seasonable weather will persist into the mid-late work week
time period with surface high pressure dominating area wx.
Moisture levels and rain chances will increase going on into the
weekend as onshore winds resume as the high moves off to the east.
The next western trof will advance into the Plains and send a
cold front and associated precip through the area sometime
Saturday. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Sea fog/showers currently lingering over the area is expected to
move out by mid morning with the passage of the weak cold front.
Winds behind this front not terribly impressive per obs upstream
but with the continued CAA behind this boundary, we could see an
uptick with winds/seas over the offshore waters this afternoon.
An SCEC has been issued for the 20-60 nm coastal waters for this
timeframe.

As the associated surface high builds down into the region tonight
and then makes a slow sweep across the southern states, winds will
be shifting to the east by Tues and persisting through much of the
upcoming week. However, winds/seas across the offshore waters will
likely continue to remain elevated and Caution flag criteria could
persist through this week. SE winds expected to return to the area
late Thurs/Fri ahead of the next cold front that is still forecast
to move into the Gulf waters late Sat. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers still possible through the rest of this morning
with the passage of the cold front. Sea fog will also remain prob-
lematic at GLS through mid morning. However, we are and will keep
seeing improving conditions from the NW as the morning wears on.
VFR should prevail areawide by 18Z. No CIG/VIS issues for tonight
or tomorrow. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 37 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 40 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 47 64 46 59 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

FDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1143 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry air in the wake of this morning`s cold front will keep
skies clear through the period. Current moderate northerlies to
begin to weaken later this afternoon as high pressure moves in
from the west. Weak northwest veering north breezes from tonight
through tomorrow afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

UPDATE...
Breezy and dry conditions are settling in across the region in
the wake of last night/this morning`s cold front, which morning
surface analysis shows has pushed off the Texas coast. Current
forecast is handling trends well, but did a minor update to
account for slightly drier conditions this afternoon based on
upstream dew points and anticipated afternoon mixing. Expect
elevated fire weather conditions across the area by early
afternoon as relative humidities fall into the 20-30 percent range
with conditions improving by this evening as winds decrease with
the arrival of surface ridging from West Texas. Otherwise, expect
high temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s under
sunny skies.

Huffman

[tireman4]

Wildfire Prevention. With the humidity really low and the winds gusting, please be aware...

[srainhoutx]

We have a bit of scattered light front on the roof tops in NW Harris County this morning from that Pacific front yesterday morning. The Gulf moisture returns late week bringing some light amounts of precipitation along and ahead of another slightly colder front Saturday.

[tireman4]

Daily Report from HGX

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 232127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild conditions will persist across the region through
Thursday with rain chances and periods of fog returning Friday and
Saturday ahead of a cold front Saturday night. Surface ridging
remains sprawled across the Southern Plains this afternoon and is
expected to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday before an
approaching shortwave trough near southern Arizona/New Mexico on
afternoon water vapor imagery kicks this low level ridging east.
This will keep rain chances nil across the region through Thursday
as Southeast Texas remains closed off from Gulf moisture, with
only passing high clouds drifting across the region as west to
southwest flow aloft allows upper level Pacific moisture to stream
overhead. Expect highs through Thursday in the low to mid 60s
with lows ranging from the low 30s inland to mid 40s along the
coast.

Onshore flow gradually resumes by Friday, strengthening during
the day and drawing Gulf moisture back into the region. Associated
warm air advection may produce an isolated shower or two Friday
morning with a developing low level jet over Central Texas
resulting in scattered showers west of Interstate 45 by late
Friday. A second trough swinging across the Southern Plains on
Saturday looks to send a cold front into the region by Saturday
night. Mid-level height falls ahead of this trough and steepening
lapse rates ahead of this feature may encourage an isolated
thunderstorm or two to also develop on Saturday along and ahead of
a prefrontal trough before the front arrives Saturday night.
Severe potential looks low, but relatively weak flow through 700
MB and precipitable water values in the 1.2-1.4 inch range may
mean a few slow-moving heavy downpours will be possible. Highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s ahead of the front on Saturday look to
moderate back down into the lower 60s on Sunday with dry and mild
conditions resuming by the beginning of the next work week.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure nestled into southeastern Texas has allowed winds
to subside. The forecast is for north to northeast breezes to
occur across the local bay and nearshore waters through early
Thursday. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the
southern United States and the Carribean will be tight enough to
produce and maintain more moderate offshore northeasterlies into
late week. Onshore winds by Thursday will pull in a warmer and
more humid air across cooler shelf waters. This will increase the
probabilities of Friday and Saturday sea fog. Passing weak
disturbances Friday and Saturday will increase rain chances. A
cold frontal passage early Sunday will strengthen Sunday`s
offshore winds. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 35 63 38 64 47 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 38 63 39 63 49 / 0 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 44 58 46 58 53 / 0 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...31

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
517 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Quite a bit of clouds/moisture streaming across the coastal waters
overnight/so far this morning from the SW. This pattern would seem
to suggest that the upper trof out west (near the California Baja)
has begun to develop/move east. But in the meantime...the mild/dry
weather will continue across SE TX today/tomorrow as the northeast
to east low-level winds persist.

While onshore winds are still set to return late Thurs, the return
of isolated/scattered showers (and fog) may not be until Fri night
to early Sat morning. Models are still indicating the passage of a
shortwave just north of the area late Thurs...but another disturb-
ance moving into the area (from the lower TX coast) late Fri night
will likely be the main impetus for precipitation. Models still on
track for the passage of a cold front late in the day Sat but seem
to be backing off a bit with respect to CAA. At any rate, however,
the building upper ridge in the wake of the front on Sun will help
to clear things out quickly. Though it may be a bit soon, extended
guidance is hinting at the return of much colder temps/winter next
next weekend. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Slightly stronger winds over the nearshore waters and even stronger
over the far coastal waters support a SCEC for the 20-60nm waters
today through tonight. High pressure over north-central Texas early
this morning will be sliding slowly southeastward maintaining the
tighter temperature/pressure gradient over the coastal waters. As it
moves east tonight and Thursday pressures along the Lower TX coast
should begin to fall and winds become more easterly. Initially dry
recirculated continental air will be the norm but by late Friday
modified air and even perhaps some air from the deep southern Gulf
will flow into the area Saturday morning ahead of the cold front.
This increasing moisture late Friday through Saturday could lead to
an increased chance of sea fog. A cold front swings through the
Upper Texas Coastal Waters Sunday night and boost of winds to SCEC
and possibly SCA a reasonable bet.
45
&&

FIRE...
Continued dry conditions today as high pressure dominates.
Winds even lighter today than yesterday with high pressure settling
in over NETX/ETX this afternoon (becoming more variable as well).
Moderate recovery again tonight though a little better than this
mornings. Still dry Thursday but with more consistent east to
southeast winds though the gradient is still loose. Friday moisture
levels increase noticeably but relatively light SE winds continue.
Pacific cold front Saturday night will bring in another round of dry
air with limited cooling. Elevated fire weather conditions possible
Sunday.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Light winds.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 38 63 49 66 / 0 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 63 38 63 49 65 / 0 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 61 47 61 54 65 / 0 0 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

Wet Weather Returns...

[DoctorMu]

Mild sunny days, cool to chilly nights. No A/C running. No sprinklers running. Life is good.

The models are running pretty seasonable...except for this Euro thing.

Really cold stuff continues lurking in Canada.

[srainhoutx]

Rather unexpectedly chilly across the Northern areas of Metro Houston to start the day. Temperatures across Montgomery, Liberty, NW and Northern Harris Counties have drop to just below or near freezing at 4:00 AM.

Calm winds and low dew points with clear skies allowed for ideal radiational cooling.

Winds should slowly swing around to the E today and then SE by tonight as a disturbance crosses Mexico and a surface low develops along the Lower Texas Coast tomorrow. With a mostly West to East zonal flow, the highest rain chances look to remain offshore where thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday with decreasing amounts inland likely less than a tenth of an inch. Another Pacific front arrives Saturday night/Sunday morning with little fanfare as the Gulf Low will be well East of us, S of the SE Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Seasonal weather should be the theme as we end the month of January. It appears January will end drier and colder than normal, climatology wise. And we had a minor and rather impressive Wintry Weather events.

[jasons2k]

Not happy this morning. It wasn’t supposed to freeze at my house and it did, with nothing protected. This is not the first time the NWS has busted on me. Grrrrrr.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
509 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
One more fairly quiet/dry day today as the weather pattern over SE
TX continues to evolve. With the onshore winds developing/strength-
ening and high clouds begin moving in from the W/SW, highs for the
day will climb into the mid/upper 60s. Rain chance should hold off
until tonight as the combination of increasing low-level moisture/
shortwave approaching from the west helps to produce some isolated
showers...mainly over the western half of the CWA.

As this onshore flow persists into Fri, PWs across the region will
be climbing into the 1 to 1.3 inch range (from north to south) and
then from 1.1 to 1.6 inches by Fri night. This seems to be setting
the stage for the arrival/passage of another disturbance (from the
SW) Fri night/Sat morning. Progged instabilites not too impressive
for this time, but cannot rule out an isolated TSRA or two as this
system moves across the area. Rain chances will remain high on Sat
with the passage of the cold front as well. An important note with
the very high PWS forecasts over our coastal counties...the 1.5 to
1.6 inch values are on the highest end of the climatological norms
for PWs for this time of year. As such, locally heavy rains remain
a possbility Fri night and Sat for the southern half of the CWA.

The building upper ridge in the wake of the front (and its associ-
ated upper trof) should help to clear things out quickly Sat night
into Sun morning. A reinforcing front on Mon will keep the weather
over SE TX dry/quiet through the first part of next week. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft exercise caution still in effect for the 20-60nm waters
this morning for the slightly stronger winds there but these should
gradually diminish by late morning so plan to end in with the mid
morning update. High pressure over E TX will weaken and slide east
today with pressures falling on the Lower and Coastal Bend which
should turn winds easterly. Strong winds over the Caribbean will tap
into the tropical moisture and eventually push it into the Southern
Gulf Saturday. Closer to the area the moisture will be on the
increase the next few days and Friday night/Saturday morning the sea
fog threat should return with lower 60 dewpoints moving slowly over
the much cooler shelf waters. Cold front moving toward SETX should
help with the development of showers and even a few thunderstorms
Friday and Saturday as PW surges. The prefrontal trough pushes into
the coastal waters Saturday afternoon and the Pacific front Saturday
evening or early Sunday morning. This should end the rain chances
and usher in SCA conditions with the offshore flow.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a little cirrus this morning. Mid level 8000-12000 ft
moistens up tonight and should overspread the region with a fairly
thick mid level deck. Lower clouds possibly MVFR over western
counties this evening with a combination of upslope and continued
moistening. After Friday 06-09z window expect some MVFR CIGS to
develop in and around the main hubs. Outlook...Friday night through
Saturday morning expect a round of IFR becoming VLIFR improving mid
to late Saturday morning. GLS/LBX/HOU may have a round of active
weather with showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning.
45

&&

.FIRE...
Dry air still blankets the region but with easterly winds developing
the southern areas should see an increase in RH over yesterday but
the northern areas will still be plenty dry with RH values 20-28
percent. After all the dry conditions fuels may be very available.
Winds today will be a little stronger today 4-8 mph across the
northern areas. Stronger near the coast today but again with a
little higher RH.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...
Jan 25th of 2012 - A widespread severe weather outbreak occurred
across SETX. 6 Tornadoes including an EF1 in Deanville in Burleson
county. Flooding was also reported from Houston to Rosenberg.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 48 67 56 69 / 10 10 30 50 30
Houston (IAH) 65 47 67 56 67 / 10 10 20 60 50
Galveston (GLS) 62 52 65 57 64 / 10 10 20 60 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[mckinne63]

Not happy this morning. It wasn’t supposed to freeze at my house and it did, with nothing protected.

I was quite surprised to see the frost on my car this morning. I didn't notice at first, I put my cup of soy milk on the top as I always to do to pick up the newspaper and put my computer bag in the car. Surprise! Cup started sliding off. I don't think we were quite freezing, but was cold enough to make everything quite frosty.

[DoctorMu]

Rather unexpectedly chilly across the Northern areas of Metro Houston to start the day. Temperatures across Montgomery, Liberty, NW and Northern Harris Counties have drop to just below or near freezing at 4:00 AM.

Calm winds and low dew points with clear skies allowed for ideal radiational cooling.

Winds should slowly swing around to the E today and then SE by tonight as a disturbance crosses Mexico and a surface low develops along the Lower Texas Coast tomorrow. With a mostly West to East zonal flow, the highest rain chances look to remain offshore where thunderstorms are likely Friday night into Saturday with decreasing amounts inland likely less than a tenth of an inch. Another Pacific front arrives Saturday night/Sunday morning with little fanfare as the Gulf Low will be well East of us, S of the SE Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast.

Seasonal weather should be the theme as we end the month of January. It appears January will end drier and colder than normal, climatology wise. And we had a minor and rather impressive Wintry Weather events.

Low dew points and light winds under clear skies and NEW flow aloft = frosty conditions this time of year. Winds are flipping around now from the south. No chance of a freeze tonight.

[Katdaddy]

Increasing clouds today will be followed by increasing rain chances tonight and into Saturday. Not the best weather weekend however temps will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the mid 50s.

[tireman4]

64
FXUS64 KHGX 261148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018

.AVIATION...
Periods of MVFR to VFR ceilings will persist through much of the
day with east to southeast winds 10 knots or less. Light rain
early this morning will taper off by midday as an associated
disturbance moves east of the TAF sites. Persistent onshore flow
will result in the threat of sea fog near Galveston after 22Z with
light overnight winds and increasing moisture beneath a nocturnal
inversion allowing fog to develop farther inland after 03-06Z.
VFR/MVFR ceilings will also gradually lower to IFR after 03Z as
moisture returns. Another disturbance lifting up the coast
tonight will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development beginning around 03-06Z with best coverage over the
marine areas. A VCTS mention may be needed for LBX or GLS in later
packages but confidence was not high enough to include at this
time. A cold front is expected to move across the region beyond
the end of the current TAF period.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging lingers over SETX this morning with coastal troughing
along the mid and lower coast. Moisture on the increase with the
easterly flow and dewpoints over the Gulf have recovered 10
degrees and 10-20 degrees over the southern counties. Mid and
upper level clouds expanding over the region from the southwest
and bringing a few sprinkles with them. Today should be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
A few light sprinkles or showers possible mainly west and south
today. Patchy sea fog possible late this afternoon. Overnight
tonight expect continued moistening with increasing chances for
sea fog over the marine waters and expanding inland. Patchy fog
inland after midnight. Rain chances ramp up quickly overnight as
subtropical jet disturbance moves into and through the area.
Soundings become saturated but with very little instability. Deep
convection will probably be confined to areas to the south of the
Highway 59 corridor and primarily focused over the coastal waters.
As the s/w departs the eastern areas a lull will probably develop
Saturday morning with the cold front entering the picture and
pushing through to the coast Saturday mid to late afternoon. Rain
chances fall from northwest to southeast with the passage of the
front. Rain chances come to an end over SETX by sunrise Sunday.
Ridging keeps it dry but still fairly warm Sunday followed by a
push of cooler and drier air Monday down through the region. Our
coldest morning should be Tuesday morning followed by a warm up
and warm front Wednesday. A cold front slides through early Friday
per the ECMWF with a stronger front portrayed by the GFS. For now
will follow the ECMWF in the extended.
45

MARINE...
A weak disturbance lifting up the Upper Texas coast early this
morning will produce isolated showers across the marine areas this
morning. Periods of sea fog will be possible as early as late
afternoon as east to southeast winds push warm, moist air across the
cooler shelf waters. A secondary disturbance lifting up the coast
tonight will result in scattered to numerous showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms developing by Saturday morning and the
possible formation of a weak coastal trough. This feature may result
in winds backing enough across the nearshore areas to push any sea
fog that develops away from the coast and while dense fog will be
possible from late this afternoon through Saturday, rain and backed
winds may result in small windows of occurrence as opposed to a
prolonged period. The sea fog threat looks to definitively end by
Saturday evening/night as a cold front clears the Gulf waters.
Increasing offshore flow behind this front may result in caution or
advisory flags through late Monday or early Tuesday. Winds become
onshore by the middle of the upcoming week as surface ridging
slides east of the northwest Gulf.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 56 69 52 66 / 20 40 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 66 56 68 55 65 / 20 60 50 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 61 54 61 52 61 / 20 70 70 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14