000
FXUS64 KHGX 071553
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
953 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Latest obs indicate cold front sinking toward northern portions of
the forecast area late this morning. Would expect the progression
of the front to slow a bit, but still should reach around College
Station to Trinity by mid afternoon, keeping temperatures there
and north a bit cooler than recent days. Not much in the way of
precipitation noted with the front at this time, but could get a
few showers to develop near the front this afternoon. Otherwise,
will not be making any significant changes to the current
forecast.
November 2017 : Quiet Weather To End The Month
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4437
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Issued by Corpus Christi NWS..hummm
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.AVIATION...
Not much change to previous aviation forecast package. Cold front
gradually approaching Southeast Texas from the north. Wind shift
expected at CLL/UTS TAF sites by mid- afternoon with other sites
to follow this evening and overnight. Will expect MVFR cigs
associated with the front. A few showers are possible along the
front but chances too small to include in TAFs. During the day on
Wednesday however, could have some higher rain chances, thus have
included -RA for CLL/UTS and VCSH for most other sites. Not
expecting flight conditions to improve significantly during the
day. There is some potential for IFR conditions at several sites,
but will hold off on including this as confidence is low.
&&
000
FXUS64 KHGX 071728
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 7 2017
.AVIATION...
Not much change to previous aviation forecast package. Cold front
gradually approaching Southeast Texas from the north. Wind shift
expected at CLL/UTS TAF sites by mid- afternoon with other sites
to follow this evening and overnight. Will expect MVFR cigs
associated with the front. A few showers are possible along the
front but chances too small to include in TAFs. During the day on
Wednesday however, could have some higher rain chances, thus have
included -RA for CLL/UTS and VCSH for most other sites. Not
expecting flight conditions to improve significantly during the
day. There is some potential for IFR conditions at several sites,
but will hold off on including this as confidence is low.
&&
I got a gut feeling that the cold snap we had back in Oct might be the about coldest we see this year. I hope I'm wrong.
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
snowman65 wrote:I got a gut feeling that the cold snap we had back in Oct might be the about coldest we see this year. I hope I'm wrong.
LOL, no. We are still 3 weeks away from Meteorological Winter.
I think people forget we are going on year 2.5 of a La Nina pattern after going 4 years of an El Nino like pattern (by the way, those 4 years were some of the coldest we have seen in a long time). It's just the nature of the cycle we are in. La Nina will deliver cold, its just short lived cold typically.
Last edited by MontgomeryCoWx on Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Team #NeverSummer
- tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4437
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 080947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s cold front has cleared the coast (Galveston`s
winds shifted from the southwest to the west northwest at
12:45 AM), and 3 AM temperatures are all now under 70
degrees. The area will continue to cool down during the
remaining overnight hours with sunrise temperatures ranging
from the 50s inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. With
north winds and extensive cloud cover, we should see little
temperature change for much of the day with high temperatures
likely having already occurred during the early overnight
hours. There will be a chance of rain across the area today
and on into tonight (higher to the north and lower to the
south) as a storm system moves eastward across the state.
This system will be east of us on Thursday resulting in
decreasing clouds and high temperatures warming up into the
60s. The area should stay mostly on the dry side for the
close of the week and on through the weekend as temperatures
return back toward normal early to mid November readings.
The start of next week is looking on the dry side with
temperatures warming back toward slightly above normal
values. Overall, the second week of the month will be much
cooler than the first week of the month. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front will continue pushing southward thru the coastal waters
this morning. Wind speeds behind the front are generally in the 15-
20kt range which is in fair agreement w/ model expectations. Will
hoist the Caution flags for now, but conditions are borderline
enough where the dayshift may upgrade to an Advisory (which should
be needed tonight anyways). Nudged fcst seas up above WWIII and NWPS
guidance which looks a touch low later today and tonight. Winds will
slightly diminish as they veer to the east on Fri and southeast on
Sat. On Sun, winds will back to the east then northeast in
conjunction with an easterly wave in the Gulf and another weak
frontal boundary moving through. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed off the coast. MVFR ceilings will persist in
its wake for the next 24 hours or so. A series of disturbances will
be moving eastward across the state today and into this evening
providing chances of rain. Best chances and overall coverage should
occur roughly north of a Brenham-Livingston line from late morning
thru early evening, though expect some scattered activity further
south toward the metro area. Precip should mostly be light in nature
at se Tx terminals. Gradual improvement in flying conditions can be
expected Thursday morning. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 47 63 46 69 / 50 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 62 52 64 50 70 / 40 50 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 58 65 58 69 / 30 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/47
FXUS64 KHGX 080947
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s cold front has cleared the coast (Galveston`s
winds shifted from the southwest to the west northwest at
12:45 AM), and 3 AM temperatures are all now under 70
degrees. The area will continue to cool down during the
remaining overnight hours with sunrise temperatures ranging
from the 50s inland to the lower/mid 60s at the coast. With
north winds and extensive cloud cover, we should see little
temperature change for much of the day with high temperatures
likely having already occurred during the early overnight
hours. There will be a chance of rain across the area today
and on into tonight (higher to the north and lower to the
south) as a storm system moves eastward across the state.
This system will be east of us on Thursday resulting in
decreasing clouds and high temperatures warming up into the
60s. The area should stay mostly on the dry side for the
close of the week and on through the weekend as temperatures
return back toward normal early to mid November readings.
The start of next week is looking on the dry side with
temperatures warming back toward slightly above normal
values. Overall, the second week of the month will be much
cooler than the first week of the month. 42
&&
.MARINE...
Cold front will continue pushing southward thru the coastal waters
this morning. Wind speeds behind the front are generally in the 15-
20kt range which is in fair agreement w/ model expectations. Will
hoist the Caution flags for now, but conditions are borderline
enough where the dayshift may upgrade to an Advisory (which should
be needed tonight anyways). Nudged fcst seas up above WWIII and NWPS
guidance which looks a touch low later today and tonight. Winds will
slightly diminish as they veer to the east on Fri and southeast on
Sat. On Sun, winds will back to the east then northeast in
conjunction with an easterly wave in the Gulf and another weak
frontal boundary moving through. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed off the coast. MVFR ceilings will persist in
its wake for the next 24 hours or so. A series of disturbances will
be moving eastward across the state today and into this evening
providing chances of rain. Best chances and overall coverage should
occur roughly north of a Brenham-Livingston line from late morning
thru early evening, though expect some scattered activity further
south toward the metro area. Precip should mostly be light in nature
at se Tx terminals. Gradual improvement in flying conditions can be
expected Thursday morning. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 56 47 63 46 69 / 50 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 62 52 64 50 70 / 40 50 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 58 65 58 69 / 30 50 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
42/47
52°F and cloudy, turning drizzly. I think this is where we stay all day.
- srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19611
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Definitely a bit chilly and raw feeling out there today as the temperatures seem to have dropped since 7 AM this morning. Had to grab a jacket at lunchtime.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cold and wet for little league tonight, that’s for sure.