October 2017 - Halloween Forecast/Rain Chances

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Adios Summer, you evil, disgusting monster!
TG. Dew points of ≥70° F are out of the forecast until Spring 2018. :D [knock on wood]
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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:Nice Monday morning in NW Harris County where temperature has dropped to 51F as of 7:00 AM. A secondary surge of colder and drier air arrives overnight into early tomorrow which should allow for even cooler temperatures, particularly daytime highs which may struggle to get out of the 60's tomorrow and Wednesday.

Yet another front arrives late Friday/early Saturday extending our string of Chamber of Commerce Weather into next weekend.

Naturally, I'm heading out of town tomorrow. Hope it doesn't rain too much in Seattle, but they have a break in the cloudy action Friday and Saturday.

We saw an inch of rain with the front. Sprinklers are OFF finally.

Friday's front is pretty dry. Don't see significant unsettled weather in the long-range until about Nov 6.
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The Fall weather continue as dry cold front moves across SE TX today with lows in the 40s and 50s for Wednesday morning. Another cold front will move across SE TX Friday ushering in a dry cool weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Inland areas of SE TX will likely see lows in the upper 30s this weekend.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance have come into good agreement regarding the timing and strength of our first real shot of some modified Arctic air of the Season. Our Hemispheric Indices are conducive for delivering such a strong front lending to a perfect World Series Weekend here in Houston. Go Astro's!
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10242017 00Z ECMWF 96 ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png
10242017 00Z GFS 96 gfs_z500a_namer_17.png
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 241128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
The main aviation concern will be the winds today as a cold front
has pushed through the area this morning. Winds have not mixed
down from the surface but KHGX VAD wind profiles show 40-50kt
winds 1000-2000ft AGL. Winds will take a couple of hours to mix to
the surface so will have low level wind shear in TAFs until
mixing occurs around 14Z. After that wind gusts around 25kts will
be common an perhaps near 30kts for KGLS. Winds will decouple
tonight as high pressure begins to move over the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The Autumn weather pattern will continue for the next several days
across Southeast Texas. Main issues include a cold front moving
across the area today and another cold front on Friday. Both
fronts will bring unseasonably cool weather conditions across all
of the forecast area.

Items of concern regarding today`s cold front include breezy and
dry conditions following the frontal passage. These will elevate
fire weather conditions across the area (see the fire weather
section below for more details). Temperatures following the front
will fall into the 40s and 50s tonight and early Tuesday morning.

After another cool, dry, but not as breezy day on Wednesday,
onshore winds will begin to return Gulf moisture on Thursday. The
second cold front will arrive Friday. There has been some
differences in model precipitation output. Current thinking is
that isentropic lift ahead of the front should aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers with best chances
along the front and over the southeastern half of the forecast
area. The main impact from the front will be after the frontal
passage over the weekend. Early morning low temperatures will
likely fall into the mid and upper 30s over the far inland areas
Saturday and Sunday morning with the coldest morning likely Sunday
morning. As of now, lowest temperatures could be near 34 or 35
degrees over locations north of a line from Burleson to Huntsville
to Cleveland. Could see some upper 30s as far south as Liberty
County, northern Harris County, and locations southwest of metro
Houston along the inland portions of the coastal counties.

As the high pressure area moves northeast of the forecast area, a
warming trend is expected starting on Monday. This should be aided
by southwesterly winds at the surface Sunday night and onshore
winds by late Monday.

40

MARINE...
Winds should increase towards sunrise this morning as a cold front
pushes through the area. Winds are expected to reach advisory levels
over the Gulf this morning. The advisory begins a few hours before
the threshold is forecast to be met to cover the period of SCEC-
level wind. The advisory carries through Wednesday morning - the 0-
20 nm zones may see a bit of a lull in the afternoon, but with the
expectation that winds will exceed the advisory threshold again
tonight. The advisory may need to be extended through Wednesday
morning.

Look for winds to diminish Wednesday as another high pressure center
moves across the region. As that high moves off to the east, onshore
flow should return on Thursday. The next front is expected to arrive
Friday, and looks strong enough to bring another period of strong,
gusty winds. This front may be stronger than the previous front with
the potential for wind gusts to gale force. Small craft advisories
may be needed Friday through Saturday.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
A front will continue to push through the area this morning and
drier air behind it will re-enforce the already drier cooler airmass
in place. RH levels should drop to around 20 to 25 percent this
afternoon. The area is fortunate to have generally wetter than
normal fuels due to recent rain. Outside of the 10 hour fuels, which
are more receptive to changes in RH, rain from Sunday morning will
help mitigate conditions. Due to the higher fuel moisture, we will
decide against going with a red flag warning. However, those with
more grassy fuels should be aware of the dry air and winds expected,
and understand that fire may spread more rapidly than they might
expect given the recent rain. Should RH drop lower than forecast or
winds become stronger, we will need to issue a red flag warning
today.

Low humidity will persist Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be
lower on Wednesday as high pressure moves over across SE Texas.
Winds increase Thursday ahead of the front and enough moisture will
return for some rain chances ahead of the next front on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 43 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 46 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 56 73 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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srainhoutx
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Coldest morning of the Fall Season so far this morning in NW Harris County where temperatures have dropped to the mid 40's. Some slight moderation is expected for overnight temperatures until Friday when a shot of modified Arctic/Canadian Air arrives ushering in the coldest morning we have seen since last February. Current temperature guidance has areas along and N of HWY 105 flirting with near freezing temperatures early Sunday morning. A light frost may be possible just N and W of the Beltway as well, so it may be time to protect those plants sensitive to frost or possible freeze.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 251117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
High pressure over west Texas will allow for NW winds today and
VFR conditions. Next chance for MVFR ceilings will come Friday as
moisture returns ahead of the next cold front.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold airmass was overhead of Southeast Texas early this morning.
Morning low temperatures will likely fall into the upper 30s in
some locations well inland of the coast and away from the major
metropolitan areas. Another dry and cool day is then in store for
the forecast areas as high pressure drifts overhead.

Gulf moisture return will begin slowly tonight that should help to
moderate the low temperatures across the area. An upper level
shortwave trough aloft will accompany the passage of a cold front
on Friday. Scattered showers are expected to develop across the
forecast area and linger after the passage of the front. The rain
should end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Breezy conditions are then expected to develop behind the
front and could reach wind advisory levels for a brief period
during the late afternoon.

The main issue over the weekend will be temperatures. Early
morning low temperatures on Saturday are expected to fall into
the mid 30s over the north and west and mid 40s at the coast. The
coldest morning is still looking to be early Sunday morning when
low temperatures are expected to be in the 30s over all but the
immediate coastal areas. Although guidance is not in agreement,
there are indications that freezing temperatures could occur over
locations along and north of a line from Madisonville to Groveton.
As the surface high moves east of the state, a warming trend will
occuring beginning Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front is
expected to move toward the forecast area during the middle of
next week.

40

MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions continue this morning across the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds are expected to decrease later this morning
through the rest of the day. High pressure situated over West Texas
this morning will move towards the Lower Texas Coast this evening.
This high pressure then moves into the northern Gulf on Thursday.
Southwest winds develop along the coast Thursday becoming more
southerly on Friday ahead of the next cold front.

The next cold front should push off the coast Friday afternoon with
forecast models in pretty good agreement with timing. There may be
some developing thunderstorms along the front that could affect the
coast. Strong northerly winds are expected again Friday night into
Saturday which will require another round of advisories for strong
winds and rough seas. High pressure builds over the region Sunday
allowing for light winds and low seas.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
Low humidity will be possible this afternoon and again Thursday
afternoon. Today winds will be from the NW but lower than yesterday.
Relative humidity may still drop to near 20 percent with a few areas
going below 20 percent today. Tomorrow winds increase from the SW
which will help bring some Gulf moisture back but humidity levels
may drop to 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon. Friday a cold front
will push through the area shifting winds to the north behind it and
bring in more dry air. Humidity level could be quite low again on
Saturday with decreasing northerly winds.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 49 82 54 68 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 77 51 82 62 70 / 0 0 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 74 64 82 71 77 / 0 0 0 10 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
CrashTestDummy
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41 deg-F this morning in northern Brazoria Co. I'm hoping we didn't shock our orchids!!
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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kayci
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;) Is it summer yet??
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kayci wrote:;) Is it summer yet??

Begone heathen! It's cold weather lovers time.
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tireman4
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Halloween Discussion....I think changes will be made to this forecast as we get closer.




000
FXUS64 KHGX 261120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Surface low pressure in the Plains will allow for gusty SW to S
winds this afternoon across the area with VFR conditions. Winds
decrease overnight as a cold front approaches the area. The front
could reach KCLL/KUTS before 12Z Friday. Front expected to reach
IAH 12-15Z Friday for the 30 hour TAF time frame. A few showers
may be possible along the front. Showers may develop ahead of the
front for KHOU/KSGR/KLBX and KGLS with VFR ceilings as moisture
from the Gulf increases. Front expected to push off the coast by
18Z Friday and support gusty northerly winds Friday afternoon for
upcoming TAF updates.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A northwesterly flow aloft will transition to southwesterly
tonight as an upper level trough develops over the state. This
approaching upper trough has already helped to kick the surface
high pressure ridge east of the state. Weak Gulf moisture return
has already begun. A cold front will move into Southeast Texas
Thursday night and Friday morning. There is some disagreement on
the timing of the frontal passage amongst the model runs. A
general consensus has the front at College Station around 7:00 AM
Friday, the Houston area down to Matagorda Bay around mid
morning, and then off of the coast of Galveston around midday.
Rainfall may be limited at first but do expect the development of
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms as the morning
progresses. Model soundings showed the best potential for
thunderstorms to be over the central and coastal areas Friday
afternoon.

Main impacts will be post-frontal winds on Friday and Friday
night, and then low temperatures over the weekend. Some of the
guidance is suggesting that a wind advisory may be needed at
least over the western and southwestern counties during Friday
afternoon, and then along the coast late Friday afternoon through
the evening. Regarding temperatures, model blends and guidance
continue to indicate freezing temperatures may be possible at
least over the far northern counties mainly early Sunday morning.
Some isolated locations may experience a morning low around
freezing as early as Saturday morning. Coldest temperatures over
the weekend will likely be north of a line from Somerville to
Groveton. Needless to say, it will be a rather chilly weekend over
the entire area.

Onshore winds return quickly on Monday. A rather active
southwesterly flow aloft should then develop beginning on Tuesday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the possibility of an inverted coastal
surface trough will develop on Tuesday and Tuesday night. With the
subtropical jet overhead, better chances for thunderstorms can be
expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

40

MARINE...
Southwest to south winds will increase this afternoon and tonight
across the Upper Texas Coast. Small craft exercise caution or even
advisories may be needed tonight as winds increase to around 20 knots
in the offshore waters. Seas may reach 5-7 feet by Friday morning.

A strong cold front should push off the Upper Texas Coast Friday
afternoon with winds increasing to around 25 knots behind the front.
Winds should peak around midnight going into Saturday morning with
the chance of gale force wind gusts. Seas may reach close to 8 to 10
feet in the offshore waters with the strong winds. Winds should
decrease Saturday morning into the afternoon allowing seas to slowly
subside. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday
afternoon through at least Saturday morning.

High pressure moves over the area on Sunday allowing for light winds
and low seas. Winds increase from the south as high pressure moves
over the northern Gulf on Monday.

Overpeck

FIRE WEATHER...
While there has been some recovery in relative humidity this
morning, southwest to south winds today will support strong mixing
by the afternoon with sustained winds around 15 mph and a few wind
gusts to around 20-25 mph. Relative humidity may drop to 25 to 35
percent north and west of the US 59/I-69 corridor through SE Texas.
Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of the next front which will
push through Friday. Conditions Saturday will support borderline
hazardous fire conditions with northerly winds around 10-15 mph and
relative humidity back down close to 20 percent. Sunday will still
be dry but with lower winds.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 54 66 34 66 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 83 62 70 41 61 / 0 10 40 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 76 49 63 / 0 10 60 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 261659
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...The main feature of interest is late in the TAF
period with the strong cold front that should reach CLL around
10Z, IAH around 14Z, and near the coast 16Z tomorrow. Expect
scattered showers to develop ahead of the front near and south of
a SGR-IAH line in the 10Z-16Z window. Small chance of TSRA near
the coast right along the boundary. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Another beautiful day with a more moderate southwest wind backing
around the dial to onshore by the end of the day. As onshore winds
will only exist for roughly 12 hours...this will limit moisture
return ahead of tomorrow`s cold frontal passage. This should
focus Friday`s higher POPs closer to the coast/southeastern CWA
during the day as the front marches through the northern and
central forecast area. Mainly overcast becoming partly cloudy
Friday with gusty north winds...daytime temperatures reaching
their peak in the mid to late morning and falling through the
afternoon in the post-frontal. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 54 66 34 66 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 83 61 70 41 61 / 0 20 40 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 75 49 63 / 0 20 60 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Friday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...33
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srainhoutx
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Looks like a great Fall weekend ahead filled with watching the Astros playing at home in the World Series and feasting on cold weather comfort food. Seeing a lot of reports from our Neighbors in N Texas receiving sleet mixed with rain near the Metroplex. Enjoy the weekend and Go Astros!!
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What a beautiful fall day! Go Astros!
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srainhoutx
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Light Frost in NW Harris County and daily record low smashed at IAH this morning dating back to 1993. The official low is 36F with a lot of freezing or below freezing temperatures across our Northern/NE and Western Counties. It was 35F at the airport in Corpus Christi as well.
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Light frost also down here in League City this morning. Temps approaching 70F under sunny skies will feel nice this afternoon.
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Light frost here in Richmond also.Woke up to 34.5 degrees.Keep it coming. :D
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Katdaddy
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Way to go Houston Astros!

Warm temps and unsettled weather with be the theme across SE TX for Halloween into the first weekend of November. Hopefully the showers will hold off trick or treating.
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Record lows were achieved Sunday morning over the region with an early season cold air outbreak.

BUSH fell to 35 on Sunday morning surpassing the previous record of 39 from 1910.

In fact temperature fell into the upper 20’s over Trinity, Houston, and Polk Counties.

Cold Canadian surface high pressure is moving east of the area and the return of southerly winds is in progress. Low temperatures this morning have ranged from 10-20 degrees warmed than yesterday morning. Deep Gulf moisture will begin its return to the area this afternoon and will be marked by an increase in cloud cover and humidity. A weak cold front over the southern plains will move southward and approach the region early Tuesday before stalling somewhere over SE TX Tuesday night. Do not think this front will make it much into the area, and will likely stall somewhere NW of the US 59 corridor. Strong warm air advection on Tuesday will result in scattered showers developing especially in the afternoon hours. Texas Tech WRF shows development along the coast tomorrow morning which then spreads slowly inland during the day.

Main rainfall event should hold off until Tuesday night, but there could certainly be some showers or even a thunderstorms on Tuesday evening. Moisture levels really ramp up Tuesday night with PWS rising to near 1.9 inches by Wednesday morning. Will have to keep a very close eye on the stalled frontal boundary over the region with those types of moisture levels. A couple models are screaming heavy rainfall for Wednesday morning and 1.9 inch PWS are certainly something to be aware of in the event of any training cells. For the moment will go with widespread rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into the first part of Wednesday.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches appears likely over much of the region with much higher totals where cells anchor or train for any period of time. Similar to Friday the 20th where nearly 7 inches of rain fell in a few hours along Clear Creek, some isolated significantly higher totals will be possible on Wednesday.

Frontal boundary washes out on Wednesday evening and continued onshore flow will result in a moist and warm air mass into the weekend. Will cap rain chances through the Wed-Sat period at 30%, but a few periods could see higher rain chances given disturbances in the flow aloft.

Halloween Forecast:
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening…increasing through the evening. Will start with 40% chances near sunset and increase to near 60% by 1000pm. Temperatures will remain warm in the 70’s through the evening with high humidity.


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00
FXUS64 KHGX 301707
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...

18Z Aviation...Scattered CU expected across southeast areas this
afternoon as 10-15 KT southerly winds bring moisture back to the
area. Expect ceilings overnight, generally just above MVFR. Also,
expect scattered showers to develop in the vicinity of a stalling
front across the area Tuesday morning. Wind direction will be a
little tricky on Tuesday because of the slow moving front.
Directions look to vary from NE to SE across the area. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017/

UPDATE...
The last clear and cool morning for several upcoming days as
higher moisture returns today. Moisture creeping back upon onshore
winds as higher southern Gulf moisture advects its way into the
coastal bend...a trend that will continue through the day.
Increasing cloud cover and rain chances will move in from the west
southwest tomorrow with the western 2/3rds of the forecast area
facing high chances of showers and a possible thunderstorm during
the Halloween evening hours. A cold front now working its way
south out of the Texas Panhandle will slowly approach the region
through tonight and hang up somewhere across eastern Texas. With
moisture forecast to increase from current 0.5 inch column (pw)
values to well over an inch a day from now...precipitation chances
(mainly rain/showers) will become more widespread from west-to-east
from mid-Tuesday onward. Early Tuesday afternoon prog profiles show
mainly inland rain or showery weather with lapse rates falling back
enough latter in the day to mention isolated thunderstorms. Higher
rez modeling depicting precipitation beginning across the local
waters and coastal counties from as early as sunrise tomorrow
morning. While the better lower level focus will reside further
north...higher instability remains south. Thus...there is a
moderate chance of morning thunder to commence those communities`
last day of October/Halloween. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 55 69 58 78 / 0 20 40 80 60
Houston (IAH) 78 60 74 62 78 / 0 20 30 60 80
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 76 71 79 / 0 20 40 70 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
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