September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[srainhoutx]

crazy lightning & rain here, wish there were more rain gauges nearby, doesn't seem to cover this area well, judging by the rivers flowing from the yards

Same here. Over an inch in the rain gauge and still pouring.

[unome]

ick

[srainhoutx]

Monday evening briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall has developed in the last 1-2 hours over western into NC Harris County where 1-2 inches has fallen. Additional slow moving heavy rainfall has developed over NE Harris County.

Main threat will be street flooding with high short duration rainfall rates, but some rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible especially the creeks the feed into Addicks Reservoir and portions of White Oak and Buffalo Bayous.

Should see heavy rainfall gradually weaken and dissipate early this evening, but wet pattern will remain in place into mid week with additional potential for quick heavy rainfall rates and street flooding.

Another concern is in subdivisions where flood debris may be piled over the storm water inlets and roadside ditches and may slow or prevent effective run-off and drainage.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

TXZ212-213-190000-
Waller TX-Harris TX-
618 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Addicks Park Ten, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Street flooding is possible with these clustering storms. They are
currently slowing in forward motion and are producing 1 t 2 inch per
hour rainfall rates. A short fuse Urban Flood Advisory may be needed
if this clustering rain does not weaken nor move out of the area.

Locations impacted include...
Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Jersey Village, Brookshire,
Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village,
Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North,
Second Ward, Greater Greenspoint, Greater Heights, Neartown /
Montrose, Memorial Park, Eldridge / West Oaks, Fourth Ward, Spring
Branch West and Addicks Park Ten.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High rainfall is occurring with these clusters of showers and
storms, and this may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your
vehicle through any flooded roadways.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory issued as afternoon thunderstorms continue over E Central Ft Bend, Central Harris, and N Brazoria Counties. The storms will begin to dissipate with loss of daytime heating.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

TXC039-157-201-190145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0229.170918T2338Z-170919T0145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
638 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to slow
moving and training thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding
in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, western Pearland, southeastern Sugar Land,
northwestern Baytown, Missouri City, Deer Park, Stafford, South
Houston, Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Galena Park,
Jacinto City, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney
Point Village, Cloverleaf, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby
Area and Spring Branch North.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Warning issued for E Central Ft Bend, N Brazoria, and SE Harris Counties until 8:45PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 PM CDT MON SEP 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
East central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area with rates as high as 4 inches
per hour at times. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. Do
not drive across flooded roads!

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northwestern Pasadena, northwestern Pearland, Missouri City, Deer
Park, Stafford, South Houston, Bellaire, West University Place,
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Cloverleaf, Fresno, Greater Eastwood,
Greater Hobby Area, Greater Third Ward, Astrodome Area, Macgregor,
University Place, Second Ward and Channelview.

[Ounce]

2.39" near the Ikea store.

[Katdaddy]

Additional scatted afternoon and evening thunderstorms across SE TX today with some locally heavy rains and gusty winds similar to yesterday. This pattern looks to continue through the rest of the week.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong
storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday
and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied 2.34 inches out of the rain gauge for the past 24 hours. The mesocale guidance generally suggest less areal coverage today and very isolated, but increase showers and thunderstorms area wide once again on Wednesday.

[tireman4]

To what Srain alluded to..the NWS Mets agree.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows a few showers off the coast that could affect KLBX
and KGLS but overall activity is less in coverage compared to
yesterday morning. GOES 16 10.3 to 3.9 micron difference channel
shows some patchy fog around Houston with more robust stratus
north of Houston. Obs confirm this with LIFR ceilings for most
areas north of Houston. Fog has been patchy in these areas wit
visibility ranging from 1/4 mile to 6 miles. Fog and stratus
should erode later this morning with showers possible for the
afternoon hours. Again shower coverage is not expected to be quite
like yesterday, most likely more widely scattered with an
isolated thunderstorm. Hi-res mesoscale models not showing much
thunderstorms so TAFs will keep with VCSH for now, but could be
updated with VCTS/TSRA.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Distinct moisture plume evident on the GOES-16 Total Precipitable
Water image overhead of Southeast Texas early this morning. PWs of
2.0 inches were across all but the far northern quarter of
counties where the PWs fell to about 1.7 inches in Houston County.
The models show this moisture plume should remain overhead through
the mid afternoon period. The NAMBufr model forecast soundings
show the potential for thunderstorms with MUCAPE values 2000 to
2500 this afternoon. Could see gusty winds in the stronger storms
as an inverted V profile develops under 850 mb during the
afternoon. Also cold see isolated areas of locally heavy rainfall.
Even though the 2-inch PWs are not significant when compared to
the historical PWs for this time of the year, the K-Index values
do reach 34 this afternoon. Do not think the coverage will be as
much as yesterday. The HRRR and Texas Tech both show only isolated
coverage for the most part; although, the seabreeze and bay
breeze combined with outflows should lead to scattered coverage
inland of the coastal counties.

Wednesday and possibly Thursday may see better coverage than today.
The global models depict an upper level shortwave trough will
move across the Southern Plains into Southeast Texas. The models
then show the shortwave trough deepening over LA into Southeast
Texas on Thursday with a high pressure ridge building across the
mid MS Valley into N and Central Texas. The ridge should continue
to build on Friday as a deep layer upper level low pressure trough
deepens over the Rockies through Southern CA. There was some
discrepancy as to how far east and south the upper ridge will be
on Thursday and Friday. By the weeknight, an upper low will form
near or over the lower MS Valley area. This scenario should lead
to less shower and thunderstorm coverage over the forecast area.

The model solutions diverge next week over our area. With the
upper trough moving into the Plains, do expect rain chances will
increase on Sunday and Monday.

40

MARINE...
In general, moderate southeast winds will persist through the end of
the week across the Upper Texas Coast. Seas will remain around 3
feet as a result. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along
the coast and inland with higher moisture over the region.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 93 75 91 / 20 10 20 10 40
Houston (IAH) 90 76 90 75 89 / 30 10 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 86 / 20 20 30 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[Katdaddy]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong
storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday
and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

[srainhoutx]

For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows a few showers off the coast near KGLS with most
observations showing fog/low clouds. There are a range of VFR to
LIFR conditions across the area with even quarter mile visibility
at KCXO. That has since improved and think most terminals will
experience changes in visibility. Ceilings are for the most part
VFR across the area but that has not always been the case.
Possible to get some MVFR/IFR ceilings for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO like
yesterday through about 14Z. Expect ceilings to improve through
18Z but there could even be an hour or two with MVFR. Afternoon
period should be VFR with widely scattered shower development
across much of the area. Possible an isolated TSRA could develop
but will wait to add that to TAFs. Confidence is still low on
TSRA especially given trends in HRRR and other hi-res models.
Winds should decouple again and likely have more low clouds/fog
tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm chances look better tomorrow but
beyond the 24/30hr TAF period.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level shortwave ridge that moved over SE Texas yesterday
was now east of the area. A shortwave trough will be moving across
the forecast area today. Not a lot of activity has resulted so far
early this morning with this system. PWs over SE Texas ahead of
the shortwave were lower than 24 hours ago and ranged from about
1.7 to 1.9 inches. Model PW forecasts do not differ much from the
satellite derived PWs throughout the day today. The high
resolution models do indicate a potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The pattern aloft is still expected to develop into an upper
trough across LA into SE Texas with an upstream high pressure
ridge over N Texas into the Hill Country. This should translate
into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the daytime hours on Thursday and Friday. The upper level high
pressure ridge should then knock down the rain chances a bit;
although, a blend of the models still shows daily isolated
coverage. Do expect rain chances to increase beginning on Monday
as the main upper trough over the Rockies begins to slowly move
eastward into the Plains. As it does so, SE Texas should begin to
see an increase in moisture and warm air advection. In turn,
shortwave troughs moving ahead of the main trough will in help to
destabilize the airmass enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
Persistent southeast winds across the Upper Texas Coast will
continue to support seas around 3 feet for the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Passing showers will be possible the next
couple of days but more so on Thursday with higher moisture over
the Gulf. Tide levels will be about a half foot to 1 foot above
normal especially along Gulf facing beaches and western portions
of Galveston Bay.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 90 73 91 / 20 0 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 77 90 75 91 / 40 10 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 86 79 87 / 20 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Marine...39

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 201443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Expect most of the area to be partly cloudy today with temperatures
warming into the 90s (slightly above normal temperatures for this time
of the year). Already seeing some showers and thunderstorms near the
coast, and the area should see showers and thunderstorms to continue
to develop as the day progresses, with the greatest concentration
probably setting up generally along and to the east of I-45. Current
forecast has things covered, and only minor changes were made on the
morning update. 42

[uhcoog05]

For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets...

Thank you Srain for this beacon of hope!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Deterministic GFS and ECWMF guidance are coming into somewhat better agreement suggesting a cold front arrives across our Region near the 27th (GFS) or 28th (ECMWF) ushering in lower dew point/less humidity and cooler air. That front likely will play a big role on any impacts that Hurricane Maria may pose to the Outer Banks and portions of New England mid to late next week.

[Katdaddy]

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today with some locally heavy rainfall possible.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread
throughout this morning and afternoon. There is a chance for
isolated strong storms to produce locally heavy rainfall that may
lead to localized minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and early this evening.

[srainhoutx]

Growing indications that our long awaited first Fall Cold Front arrives across the Lone Star State on September 27th/28th. How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?

[davidiowx]

How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?

AMAZING!

[snowman65]

How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?

AMAZING!

THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!!!