September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
352 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
occur today. Isolated strong storms could produce strong gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for mainly daytime and early evening thunderstorms will
continue through Wednesday and Thursday with isolated strong
storms producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Thunderstorm chances are expected to diminish on Friday
and Saturday before returning Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
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srainhoutx
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For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets... ;)
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09202017 00Z ECMWF 240 ecmwf_T850a_scus_11.png
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 201152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar shows a few showers off the coast near KGLS with most
observations showing fog/low clouds. There are a range of VFR to
LIFR conditions across the area with even quarter mile visibility
at KCXO. That has since improved and think most terminals will
experience changes in visibility. Ceilings are for the most part
VFR across the area but that has not always been the case.
Possible to get some MVFR/IFR ceilings for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO like
yesterday through about 14Z. Expect ceilings to improve through
18Z but there could even be an hour or two with MVFR. Afternoon
period should be VFR with widely scattered shower development
across much of the area. Possible an isolated TSRA could develop
but will wait to add that to TAFs. Confidence is still low on
TSRA especially given trends in HRRR and other hi-res models.
Winds should decouple again and likely have more low clouds/fog
tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm chances look better tomorrow but
beyond the 24/30hr TAF period.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level shortwave ridge that moved over SE Texas yesterday
was now east of the area. A shortwave trough will be moving across
the forecast area today. Not a lot of activity has resulted so far
early this morning with this system. PWs over SE Texas ahead of
the shortwave were lower than 24 hours ago and ranged from about
1.7 to 1.9 inches. Model PW forecasts do not differ much from the
satellite derived PWs throughout the day today. The high
resolution models do indicate a potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The pattern aloft is still expected to develop into an upper
trough across LA into SE Texas with an upstream high pressure
ridge over N Texas into the Hill Country. This should translate
into isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the daytime hours on Thursday and Friday. The upper level high
pressure ridge should then knock down the rain chances a bit;
although, a blend of the models still shows daily isolated
coverage. Do expect rain chances to increase beginning on Monday
as the main upper trough over the Rockies begins to slowly move
eastward into the Plains. As it does so, SE Texas should begin to
see an increase in moisture and warm air advection. In turn,
shortwave troughs moving ahead of the main trough will in help to
destabilize the airmass enough for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
Persistent southeast winds across the Upper Texas Coast will
continue to support seas around 3 feet for the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Passing showers will be possible the next
couple of days but more so on Thursday with higher moisture over
the Gulf. Tide levels will be about a half foot to 1 foot above
normal especially along Gulf facing beaches and western portions
of Galveston Bay.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 90 73 91 / 20 0 40 10 20
Houston (IAH) 92 77 90 75 91 / 40 10 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 86 79 87 / 20 20 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Marine...39
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 201443
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
943 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Expect most of the area to be partly cloudy today with temperatures
warming into the 90s (slightly above normal temperatures for this time
of the year). Already seeing some showers and thunderstorms near the
coast, and the area should see showers and thunderstorms to continue
to develop as the day progresses, with the greatest concentration
probably setting up generally along and to the east of I-45. Current
forecast has things covered, and only minor changes were made on the
morning update. 42
uhcoog05
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srainhoutx wrote:For those searching for some relief from the warm weather, I have some good news and some not so good news. The 00Z ECMWF suggests a cold front arrives around the 28th with some colder air filtering in on the 30th. The not so good news is it's still 10 days out and temperatures appear to not be any cooler than what we experienced the week following Harvey. Still searching for that first strong push of colder air that will bring out those light jackets... ;)
Thank you Srain for this beacon of hope!
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Deterministic GFS and ECWMF guidance are coming into somewhat better agreement suggesting a cold front arrives across our Region near the 27th (GFS) or 28th (ECMWF) ushering in lower dew point/less humidity and cooler air. That front likely will play a big role on any impacts that Hurricane Maria may pose to the Outer Banks and portions of New England mid to late next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across SE TX today with some locally heavy rainfall possible.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221300-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
341 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread
throughout this morning and afternoon. There is a chance for
isolated strong storms to produce locally heavy rainfall that may
lead to localized minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and early this evening.
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srainhoutx
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Growing indications that our long awaited first Fall Cold Front arrives across the Lone Star State on September 27th/28th. How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?
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09212017 03Z Day 3 to 7 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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davidiowx
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srainhoutx wrote:How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?
AMAZING!
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snowman65
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davidiowx wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:How do temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's for morning lows with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70's sound?
AMAZING!
THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!!!
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1m1 minute ago
Similar to Monday this week, today there will be another chance of rain with locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. #houwx #bcswx #txwx

09212017 HGX DKP59d8UIAIep8r.jpg
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Radar imagery showing that showers are beginning to develop along
the coast again but perhaps not quite as much as yesterday. GOES
16 10.3-3.9 micron difference channel showing clearly where low
stratus begins and ends. This is mainly north of KELA to KCXO to
K6R3 where obs also show IFR ceilings. Ceilings are transient at
times so likely see a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR for KCLL/KUTS/KCXO TAF
sites. Houston terminals south to the coast remain VFR with patchy
fog surrounding them. Think these areas will largely remain VFR
except for maybe later in the morning as shower activity begins.
TAFs keep mention of VCTS but begin TS around 16-17Z per latest
HRRR and WRF model runs. Convection should end 22Z to 01Z this
evening. SREF low ceiling probabilities are highest west of the
area overnight into Friday morning but low visibility
probabilities still higher from KCLL to KUTS. Fog may be an issue
but could hinge on how much rain falls across the area and
clearing overnight.

Overpeck
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Katdaddy
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC201-211800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0231.170921T1704Z-170921T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
1204 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 100 PM CDT.

* At 1159 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain due to showers and thunderstorms moving northward
across the same areas. This will cause urban and small stream
flooding in the advisory area. Close to two inches of rain have
already fallen, and rainfall rates have been as high as 0.36
inches in five minutes.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, northwestern Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park,
northwestern Seabrook, Highlands, Barrett, Channelview, eastern
Clear Lake, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Shoreacres, Morgan`s
Point, The Johnson Space Center, San Jacinto State Park and
northeastern Houston Ship Channel.

Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over the area. This
additional rain could lead to flooding, and a flash flood warning
might be needed.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the
afternoon before eventually dissipating after sunset. Vis under
2SM are possible in the heavier storms along with gusts to
20-25kt. Some fog and low cigs will be possible again tonight,
primarily north of KIAH. Some patchy dense fog will be possible,
particularly in areas that receive rain today. Some showers and
storms will be possible again tomorrow afternoon, but coverage
should be much more isolated than today.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Just did some very minor changes to the grids on the morning update.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing across the area
this morning, and expect this trend to continue for the remaining
morning and afternoon hours. So far, everything is moving along at
a pretty good clip. We`ll be watching for any training that sets up
which could lead to some possible localized flooding issues. 42

CLIMATE...
Yesterday`s rains at IAH brought their yearly total up to 71.78 inches.
Only 1.09 inches of rain is needed through the end of the year to make
2017 the wettest year on record for the City of Houston (first place
is currently 72.86 inches set in 1900). 42
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One inch per 15 minutes rainfall rates occurring in NW Harris County. Streets are flooding.
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unome
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http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 20advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
114 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC201-212015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0234.170921T1814Z-170921T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
114 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to one inch of rain has already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tomball, Jersey Village, Willowbrook and Cypress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9552 2986 9560 3003 9582 3012 9558

$$
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Katdaddy
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Flash Flood Warning
TXC039-157-212030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0111.170921T1827Z-170921T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
127 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
North central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 126 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
begin shortly. 2 to 3 inches of rain has already fallen and another
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected by 215 PM.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Manvel, Danbury, Arcola, Iowa Colony, Bonney, southeastern Sienna
Plantation, Juliff and Rosharon.

LAT...LON 2944 9529 2919 9536 2927 9560 2941 9557
2954 9541
CrashTestDummy
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1.6" in northern Brazoria County already today. More on it's way. :shock:
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Katdaddy
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
144 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

TXC039-167-201-212045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0235.170921T1844Z-170921T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Galveston TX-Brazoria TX-Harris TX-
144 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT.

* At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Eastern Pearland, League City, Friendswood, Alvin, Santa Fe,
Webster, northeastern Manvel, Greater Hobby Area, southwestern
South Belt / Ellington, southwestern Clear Lake, Danbury, Brookside
Village, Hillcrest, Liverpool, and Chocolate Bayou.

LAT...LON 2921 9524 2919 9536 2944 9529 2948 9534
2963 9531 2953 9509
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