September 2017 - Rain Chances/End Of Month Cold Front

[Belmer]

Didn't realize this, but watched Frank tonight and he showed this graphic. Last time we had three hurricanes at once was in 2010. Oddly enough, all three nearly in the same location the three hurricanes are in now. What's even more odd? All three "letter" names in the same basin. Karl/Katia in the BoC. Igor/Irma near the Lesser Antilles. Julia/Jose behind the "I" storm in the Atlantic. Pretty wild, though neat!

[Katdaddy]

Not much to say about the SE TX weather. Mostly sunny skies, dry, and a little cooler weather through the weekend.

Hurricane Katia still looks to move into MX and not be a threat to TX or LA.

The threat is increasing for Florida and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portion of S FL and the Keys this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday midday briefing from Jeff regarding Irma, Jose and Katia:

Extremely dangerous Irma heading for the Bahamas and FL

Jose forecast to become a major hurricane and threaten the Leeward Island just devastated by Irma

Katia forecast to become a category 2 hurricane and landfall in MX

Irma:

Powerful hurricane taking aim at the Bahamas and FL.

Hurricane watches are issued for the FL Keys and S FL

Mandatory evacuation orders now in place for several portions of S FL and the FL Keys…Irma is likely to be the strongest FL hurricane landfall since Andrew

USAF mission this morning indicates that Irma has weakened slightly overnight with the pressure rising to 921mb and the maximum sustained winds falling to 175mph, but Irma remains a catastrophic hurricane. The hurricane continues to move WNW and will be approaching and crossing he southern Bahamas tonight and Thursday and nearing southern FL over the weekend. As Irma reaches the western edge of the mid Atlantic ridge, it will begin to turn toward the NW and NNW, and how fast this turn happens and where will determine the ultimate impacts on the state of FL. At this time it appears that this turn will be far enough west to bring the destructive core of Irma into the heavy population areas of SE FL and then northward along the entire FL east coast. There appears little to result in weakening, until the hurricane nears FL where greater interaction with land and potentially slightly increasing wind shear may reduce the intensity toward a category 4…regardless it is increasingly likely that Irma will strike S FL as a powerful major hurricane and then move NNW along the FL east coast and strike the GA/SC coast still as a major hurricane.

Reports from Barbuda which took a direct hit from Irma and gusted to 155mph indicate nearly 95% of the structures on the island were completely destroyed.

Hurricane Katia:

Katia is a tiny hurricane over the SW Gulf of Mexico with a recent USAF mission finding a central pressure of 982mb and surface winds near 70kts. Katia has been moving almost none overnight, but should begin a slow SSW and then SW motion toward the coast of MX as high pressure builds over TX and the NW Gulf the next few days. It is interesting that forecast models do not show much intensification with Katia, given the overall favorable conditions in place. The current NHC forecast brings the hurricane to near major hurricane…category3…status prior to landfall.

Since Katia remains small, the only impacts along the TX coast will be an increase in swells over the weekend.

Hurricane Jose:

Hurricane Watches issued for the Leeward Islands…same islands devastated by Irma

Jose continues to become better organized this morning and is forecast to become a major hurricane as it nears the Leeward Islands this weekend. Many of these islands suffered catastrophic damage from hurricane Irma. Jose will track generally W and then WNW and NW into a weakness created by departing Irma over the western Atlantic into early next week. There is some uncertainty at the days 4-5 period as it if Jose will actually recurve into the open Atlantic or become blocked by building high pressure over the eastern US.

[BiggieSmalls]

How is the rest of the fall looking temp wise? and winter? sorry if i missed this ...

[srainhoutx]

How is the rest of the fall looking temp wise? and winter? sorry if i missed this ...

The CPC 3 Month Outlook issued August 31st suggest a bit above average, temperature wise and above average rainfall wise through November. That verification possibility is likely not too accurate regarding our actual sensible weather since we cannot accurately predict the sensible weather beyond 3 to 5 days...

[Ptarmigan]

How is the rest of the fall looking temp wise? and winter? sorry if i missed this ...

The CPC 3 Month Outlook issued August 31st suggest a bit above average, temperature wise and above average rainfall wise through November. That verification possibility is likely not too accurate regarding our actual sensible weather since we cannot accurately predict the sensible weather beyond 3 to 5 days...

Fall is wet as it is one of the wettest season on average along with spring. They are both transitional seasons, so more chance for heavy rain and severe weather.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with few to scattered cirrus around FL250 possible
through the TAF period. Calm to variable winds less than 5 knots
this morning will increase to 8-10 knots mid-morning out of the
northeast. Expect winds to fall below 5 knots again overnight.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Sep 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dry weather on tap for the coming 6 days and possibly longer.
Elongated 500mb ridge axis overhead to NM/CO this morning will
continue to dominate our weather through Sunday. Dry north and
northeasterly flow will prevail. Hurricane Irma should turn north
and run up through the FL area enhancing the northerly flow over
SETX which will open the door to a weak reinforcing surge of dry
air Monday and Tuesday with a shortwave peeling off from the
northern stream and a wave rotating around Irma to drop south
through the SETX region. Expect to see dry weather Monday through
Thursday but cloud cover will be increasing mainly as mid and
upper level moisture associated with the s/w should expand across
the region late Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
across the region will be gradually warming up the next 3 days
then level off as the cloud cover increases. Inland diurnal
temperature range of 21-30 degrees will be possible with the dry
air over the area. The low level flow finally turns around
Thursday and Friday and the area should see dewpoints on the
increase and narrowing of the diurnal temperature range as min
temperatures rise and afternoon temperatures moderate slightly.
Might see a shower in the far coastal waters today but should be
dry and then rain chances may return as soon as week from today
but a little more likely Saturday the 16th as moisture increases.
45

MARINE...
Light to moderate northeast winds are expected to persist over the
weekend with the western Gulf located in between surface high
pressure over the eastern United States and Hurricane Katia in the
Bay of Campeche. These elevated winds will also result in seas 3-5
feet nearshore and 4-6 feet offshore with strong rip currents
possible at times along Gulf-facing beaches. Caution or advisory
flags will likely be needed through the weekend with winds and waves
expected to decrease at the beginning of next week as the pressure
gradient relaxes over the western Gulf. No marine impacts are
currently expected from Hurricane Katia as it makes landfall in
Mexico by Saturday.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 61 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 63 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 73 83 73 85 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

[srainhoutx]

117 Years ago today this happened in our SE Texas Region...

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1h1 hour ago
Today is the anniversary of the catastrophic 1900 hurricane which killed more than 8000 people. #hurricane

[DoctorMu]

117 Years ago today this happened in our SE Texas Region...

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1h1 hour ago
Today is the anniversary of the catastrophic 1900 hurricane which killed more than 8000 people. #hurricane

As strong as Harvey but pinpointed for maximum destruction.

Ironic with Chamber of Commerce weather here today...and Florida poised for a bigger and badder Irma.

[Ptarmigan]

117 Years ago today this happened in our SE Texas Region...

NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 1h1 hour ago
Today is the anniversary of the catastrophic 1900 hurricane which killed more than 8000 people. #hurricane

As strong as Harvey but pinpointed for maximum destruction.

Ironic with Chamber of Commerce weather here today...and Florida poised for a bigger and badder Irma.

Still reeling from Harvey.

[Cromagnum]

Jose is now also a Cat 5. Have we ever had two active Cat 5 storms going in the Atlantic?

[Belmer]

Jose is now also a Cat 5. Have we ever had two active Cat 5 storms going in the Atlantic?

Jose isn't officially a Category 5 yet. Category 5 starts at 157mph and Jose is currently at 155mph. While 2mph doesn't make much difference, for historical records, it technically isn't one.

Going back and looking at archive tropical systems, I can't find a time when we had two Category 5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf at once. Though we have had a couple Category 5 Hurricanes in the same year.

Last time was in 2007, we had Dean and Felix (both at 175mph). Before that was in 2005 when we had four Cat 5's - Emily (160mph), Katrina (175mph), Rita (180mph) and Wilma (185mph).

Before 2005, the last time we had two or more Cat 5's in a season was in 1961, then again in 1933, and then 1932 being the first time since records were kept. So 1961 to 2005 was a big stretch.

[Ptarmigan]

Jose is now also a Cat 5. Have we ever had two active Cat 5 storms going in the Atlantic?

Jose isn't officially a Category 5 yet. Category 5 starts at 157mph and Jose is currently at 155mph. While 2mph doesn't make much difference, for historical records, it technically isn't one.

Going back and looking at archive tropical systems, I can't find a time when we had two Category 5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf at once. Though we have had a couple Category 5 Hurricanes in the same year.

Last time was in 2007, we had Dean and Felix (both at 175mph). Before that was in 2005 when we had four Cat 5's - Emily (160mph), Katrina (175mph), Rita (180mph) and Wilma (185mph).

Before 2005, the last time we had two or more Cat 5's in a season was in 1961, then again in 1933, and then 1932 being the first time since records were kept. So 1961 to 2005 was a big stretch.

I would not be surprised if Jose is upgraded to Category 5 later on.

[Katdaddy]

Nice dry weather to continue across SE TX as Hurricane Irma moves along the NW Coast of Florida and into the SE US. Irma continues to weaken with sustained winds down to 75MPH.

56 years ago Hurricane Carla made landfall at Port O’Conner.

[srainhoutx]

I wanted to take some time this morning to wish our biggest supporter of our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum a Happy Birthday! Dr. Neil Frank is 86 years old today and still going strong. We all appreciate your dedication well beyond your retirement from the Government (NHC Tropical Specialist/NHC Director) and KHOU. You are and will continue to be an example of a "Good Servant" to our Community and our Nation.

[BlueJay]

Happy birthday Dr. Frank!

[Stormrider]

Happy Birthday, Dr Frank!

[Ptarmigan]

Today is the 16th anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQdpTzqh8Ag

[Katdaddy]

Another very nice day across SE TX with mostly sunny skies. Temps will gradually warm into the low 90s through the rest of the week and weekend.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ready for solid Fall weather. The last week was nice, but I need some 40s and 50s with highs in the 60s/low 70s