August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19081
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:21 pm

Thursday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Two areas of interest have developed today in the Atlantic Basin.

99L:

A strong tropical wave has emerged off the western coast of Africa yesterday and is moving westward over the Atlantic waters SSE of the Cape Verde Islands. The Hurricane Center currently gives this area a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally westward at 10-15mph. Unlike previous waves that have moved off the African coast recently, this wave has a large envelop of tropical moisture surrounding a mid level circulation noted on satellite images. There has also been a fair amount of convection with this wave and some weak attempts at banding like features. Conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system as it moves westward over the next several days with support from the GFS and UKMET models. Interestingly the ECMWF model shows a much weaker development potential.

90L:

A tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea today has shown an increase in deep convection and NHC has declared the system (90L). This is the wave axis that global models started picking up on yesterday to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This wave is embedded within a surge of deep tropical moisture and will arrive into the western Caribbean Sea over the weekend where conditions appear favorable for the formation of a surface low pressure center. The ECMWF is fairly aggressive with this feature and develops a tropical depression/storm over the western Caribbean Sea and then a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS and CMC show only modest development of the feature the entire time…possibly because they show more land interaction with central America. NHC currently gives this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, but this may need to be increased especially if the GFS begins to show better development potential.

Steering pattern over the US Gulf coast will become critical in the eventual track of any tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. Mid level ridge does attempt to build westward from FL toward LA/TX by the middle of next week which would keep any weak tropical system buried over the Bay of Campeche. However this is not forecast to be a strong ridge (high pressure) and a stronger tropical system (as suggested by the ECMWF) would likely be able to turn more WNW or even NW pushing against the ridge once in the Gulf of Mexico. A hurricane as suggested by the ECMWF model would potentially be a threat to the TX coast while a weak tropical storm would likely move generally westward into MX well south of TX.

Confidence is not high on any particular solution at this time, but this system needs to be monitored closely over the weekend.
Attachments
image001-1.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19081
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:52 pm

Chance of Tropical Development have increased with the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the 90L in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
Attachments
two_atl_5d0(7).png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by Texaspirate11 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:42 pm

HGX DISCO

TROPICS...
There is an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea
that is being watched for possible tropical development early
next week. The GFS/ECMWF and GEM all show some type of low
approaching the Mexican coast late next week. The ECMWF is the
strongest with this system while the GFS/GEM are considerably
weaker. A model consensus would take the system well south of
Brownsville but it is something that will need to be monitored
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

jeff
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 328
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:19 pm
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by jeff » Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:43 pm

I'd watch this one (90L). Ensembles are slightly more bullish and more north than most of the operational runs. Fairly confident we will see at least a tropical storm in the Gulf this time next week. Would not rule out a hurricane.

ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by ticka1 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:38 pm

which one is 90L

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19081
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:41 pm

ticka1 wrote:which one is 90L
Eastern Caribbean.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

cperk
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 11:09 am
Location: Richmond
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by cperk » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:31 am

The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)

User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by Texaspirate11 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:27 am

cperk wrote:The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
I am. There's going to be a huge high sitting over us - this will steer it into Mx.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

User avatar
weatherrabbit
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:01 am
Location: Kingwood,Tx
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by weatherrabbit » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:54 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:
cperk wrote:The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
I am. There's going to be a huge high sitting over us - this will steer it into Mx.

Remember Ike...It was headed to Mexico then it ended up in Galveston...just saying

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19081
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:57 am

Phil Klotzbach and Colorado State University issued the Final 2017 NALT Hurricane Outlook early the morning...
08042017 CSU Final Outlook DGQNFRoVoAAc--Y.jpg
Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 3h3 hours ago
Updated Atlantic #hurricane outlook from @ColoradoStateU continues call for above-avg season: 16 NS, 8 H, 3 MH
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Post Reply