August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

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srainhoutx
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Thursday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Two areas of interest have developed today in the Atlantic Basin.

99L:

A strong tropical wave has emerged off the western coast of Africa yesterday and is moving westward over the Atlantic waters SSE of the Cape Verde Islands. The Hurricane Center currently gives this area a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally westward at 10-15mph. Unlike previous waves that have moved off the African coast recently, this wave has a large envelop of tropical moisture surrounding a mid level circulation noted on satellite images. There has also been a fair amount of convection with this wave and some weak attempts at banding like features. Conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system as it moves westward over the next several days with support from the GFS and UKMET models. Interestingly the ECMWF model shows a much weaker development potential.

90L:

A tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea today has shown an increase in deep convection and NHC has declared the system (90L). This is the wave axis that global models started picking up on yesterday to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. This wave is embedded within a surge of deep tropical moisture and will arrive into the western Caribbean Sea over the weekend where conditions appear favorable for the formation of a surface low pressure center. The ECMWF is fairly aggressive with this feature and develops a tropical depression/storm over the western Caribbean Sea and then a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, while the GFS and CMC show only modest development of the feature the entire time…possibly because they show more land interaction with central America. NHC currently gives this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, but this may need to be increased especially if the GFS begins to show better development potential.

Steering pattern over the US Gulf coast will become critical in the eventual track of any tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. Mid level ridge does attempt to build westward from FL toward LA/TX by the middle of next week which would keep any weak tropical system buried over the Bay of Campeche. However this is not forecast to be a strong ridge (high pressure) and a stronger tropical system (as suggested by the ECMWF) would likely be able to turn more WNW or even NW pushing against the ridge once in the Gulf of Mexico. A hurricane as suggested by the ECMWF model would potentially be a threat to the TX coast while a weak tropical storm would likely move generally westward into MX well south of TX.

Confidence is not high on any particular solution at this time, but this system needs to be monitored closely over the weekend.
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Chance of Tropical Development have increased with the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the 90L in the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
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HGX DISCO

TROPICS...
There is an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean Sea
that is being watched for possible tropical development early
next week. The GFS/ECMWF and GEM all show some type of low
approaching the Mexican coast late next week. The ECMWF is the
strongest with this system while the GFS/GEM are considerably
weaker. A model consensus would take the system well south of
Brownsville but it is something that will need to be monitored
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I'd watch this one (90L). Ensembles are slightly more bullish and more north than most of the operational runs. Fairly confident we will see at least a tropical storm in the Gulf this time next week. Would not rule out a hurricane.
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which one is 90L
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ticka1 wrote:which one is 90L
Eastern Caribbean.
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The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
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cperk wrote:The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
I am. There's going to be a huge high sitting over us - this will steer it into Mx.
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Texaspirate11 wrote:
cperk wrote:The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
I am. There's going to be a huge high sitting over us - this will steer it into Mx.

Remember Ike...It was headed to Mexico then it ended up in Galveston...just saying
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Phil Klotzbach and Colorado State University issued the Final 2017 NALT Hurricane Outlook early the morning...
08042017 CSU Final Outlook DGQNFRoVoAAc--Y.jpg
Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 3h3 hours ago
Updated Atlantic #hurricane outlook from @ColoradoStateU continues call for above-avg season: 16 NS, 8 H, 3 MH
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weatherrabbit wrote:
Texaspirate11 wrote:
cperk wrote:The NWS disco this morning sound pretty confident that whatever comes of 90L will go inland south of us.I am not so confident. ;)
I am. There's going to be a huge high sitting over us - this will steer it into Mx.

Remember Ike...It was headed to Mexico then it ended up in Galveston...just saying
Perhaps the big ol high moved away from us
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As of today, if I lived anywhere from Nicaragua to SW Louisiana...I would be monitoring throughout the weekend for further updates and forecasts. The Weather Prediction Center mentioned in the overnight Extended Range Outlook that there is some possibility that what is now 90L could gain some latitude mid to late next week...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2017

VALID 12Z MON AUG 07 2017 - 12Z FRI AUG 11 2017


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS RATHER STABLE AND STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. FOR THE
MOST PART, A LARGE CLOSED LOW/UPPER VORTEX WILL BE BASED SOUTH OF
AK, A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE POSITIVE ANOMALY WILL EXTEND FROM JUST
OFF THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH WESTERN CANADA, A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL GENERALLY KEEP TROUGHING EXTENDED FROM THE NERN
QUAD OF THE COUNTRY BACK TO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY. NOT MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN
AND 18Z GEFS MEANS, WITH THE MOST ANOMALOUS FEATURES BEING
INITIALLY THE LOW SOUTH OF AK AND THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD THE
UPPER RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.

FOR SHORT WAVE DETAILS, THE SPREAD HAS ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME
BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS. THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO BACK INTO THE UPPER TO MID MS VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
SWEEP TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY BY TUES MORNING. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROCEED THROUGH THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY AND
BE OFF THE COAST BY WED MORNING, WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST, MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY WED MORNING WITH A PLUNGING SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
LAST TWO DAYS, THE 18Z GFS HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAEFS MEANS AND 18Z GEFS MEAN THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DOES. THIS
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A SLOWER CLOSED 500MB LOW FEATURE SLIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, W/O INFLUENCE FROM ACTIVE UPPER JET
AND LOW SWEEPING THROUGH HUDSON BAY, AND WEAKNESS NEAR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA COAST REACHES THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE INFLUENCED WITH
THE ACTIVE FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE MEANS OVERALL FILTER THESE
DETAILS OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FINALLY, AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THE NHC IS MONITORING OVER EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEXT TUES AND PROCEED DOWNSTREAM WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO MEXICO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE BUILDING SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND COULD ALLOW SOME MORE
LATITUDE WITH THIS TROPICAL ENTITY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
UPDATES AND FORECAST FROM NHC.


WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 70-80% BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 18Z GFS
THROUGH TUES AND GRADUALLY BEGAN TO INCREASE THE INCORPORATION OF
THE MEANS INTO NEXT FRI, ABOUT 60% OF THE BLEND BY THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE WPC MEAN MAX TEMP ANOMALY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
SUGGESTS WELL ABOVE AVG HIGHS ACROSS THE PAC NW TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVG. MEANWHILE BELOW AVG HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRETCH FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ENTIRE ROCKIES TO
THE EAST COAST FROM A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG HEIGHTS
AND PRECIPITATION. SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION, ON MONDAY EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THEN ON
TUES, HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND NM/CO WITH SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LAST
THREE DAYS, ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER SWEEPING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.



MUSHER
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Remember Ike...It was headed to Mexico then it ended up in Galveston...just saying[/quote]

Perhaps the big ol high moved away from us[/quote]

I would not write this off just yet. Again, anything can happen. We have a LONG way to go before this is even a storm. As Dr. Frank states, it is not an issue until it is completely gone and it is not even a system yet. Stay tuned, as Srain states all the time,.
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Looks like CARCAH and the NHC has tasked a RECON Mission to fly down to the NW Caribbean, SW of Jamaica and take a peek at 90L in a day or two...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT FRI 04 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-065

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       NEAR 17.0N 80.0W AT 06/1800Z.
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 041437
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
937 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
12z soundings show PW values around 2.20 inches today with
convective temps between 86 and 88 degrees. Generally clear skies
should allow for strong differential heating this morning and
temperatures should approach 90 degrees by noon. The deepest 850
mb moisture is confined to the coast this morning with 850 dew
points between 15-17 C with lower values inland. By afternoon,
15-16 C dew points will move further inland. A weak 850 mb trough
of low pressure over N TX will also slide SE and may serve as a
focus for aftn storms. At 300 mb, a 40 kt speed max was analyzed
near Midland with a weakly diffluent flow aloft over SE TX. The
region will lie in the LFQ of the approaching speed max later this
aftn and feel this feature in combination with the deep moisture,
approaching 850 mb trough and heating will provide the area with
a good chance of showers and storms this afternoon into this
evening. The Hi Res NMM and HRRR are of some concern with both
models showing a few precipitation maximums over the area late
this aftn. Storm motion will be less than 10 knots so locally
heavy rain will be possible. Have raised max temps a few degrees
and raised PoPs for the afternoon. Rest of the forecast looks on
track. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017/

AVIATION...
Patchy fog currently scattered about the region should lift
shortly after sunrise. Showers and storms are expected today,
developing first near the coast before spreading inland later in
the afternoon. Coverage should be low enough to handle it with
VCTS wording in the tafs for now. Showers and storms will diminish
after sunset. Patchy fog may be possible again overnight tonight,
especially in areas that receive rain today. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Fri Aug 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers popping up along a line from around Bastrop to
Houston to Beaumont this morning with others developing to the
southwest of the Matagorda Bay area. Weak surface boundary
evident in wind field with inland storms. PW values still elevated
(though not all that high for August) across the area and moreso
over the NW Gulf. Today expecting a s/w dropping through OK this
morning to swing by this afternoon and help increase the
diffluence aloft but with weak winds in the profile storms should
be disorganized and mainly scattered across the region...perhaps
becoming a little more organized in the mid-late afternoon hours
along the slow moving seabreeze. Will carry higher POPs toward the
coast this morning and expanding inland through the afternoon.
Brief heavy downpours will be possible today with a few spots
getting 1 to 2 inches but the majority of areas that get rain will
probably be more on the order of 0.25-0.50" -- hey it`s summer in
SETX. Storms should wane with the loss of heating after 5 pm.
Saturday...Scattered showers redeveloping after midnight over the
coastal waters and spreading inland in the morning as low level
flow strengthens in response to falling heights over the Southern
Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again Saturday across
SETX with the pattern showing slightly more ridging taking hold by
Sunday with warmer afternoon temperatures and a little more
capping and probably lesser coverage. Models start to diverge
Monday as higher PW air arrives with GFS very bullish on rain
chances thanks to s/w in the southern stream that swings in from
the SW while the ECMWF is also showing higher pops but more so for
a frontal boundary stalling out well to the north and an inverted
upper trough rippling by to the south. In either case the
potential for some heavier rain may be in the offing Monday.
Greater rain chances will likely be over NTX and OK Mon/Tue in
closer proximity to the cold front. Tue/Wed a tropical wave should
be moving across the Yucatan and probably Bay of Campeche
potentially becoming a tropical depression or storm moving nearly
due west which could bring up rain chances Thursday through Friday
as moisture flung off from it slides across the Upper TX coastal
waters and into SETX. Guidance is in good agreement that the track
of anything tropical will be well south of the region and
limiting any impacts to just an increase in moisture and rain
chances. By Friday next week the wave currently just west of
Africa should be nearing Haiti and has greater potential for
development. We are climbing the seasonally activity graph quickly
during the middle of August...typically by Aug 10 at least 1
hurricane has formed...with more systems starting to form in the
MDR.

45

MARINE...
A unsettled weather pattern will continue to bring periods of
showers and thunderstorms across the waters well into next week.
Expect higher winds and seas in and near the storms. More persistent
south winds and gradually building seas are anticipated over the
weekend and into the start of next week under a slightly tighter
pressure gradient. Caution flags may be required at times later this
weekend into early next week. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 94 77 95 / 40 10 40 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 91 78 91 / 50 20 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 88 82 88 / 40 30 50 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
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Edited

Something to watch for sure.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:52 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Friday evening briefing from Jeff regarding our rainfall threat and 90L:

Forecast models are slowly coming into agreement that a strong short wave and deep tropical moisture will interact over the region starting Sunday evening and into much of Monday.

While the air mass has remained generally moist today, showers and thunderstorms have been widely scattered at best. Expect a similar setup on Saturday once temperatures reach the upper 80’s and on Sunday once temperatures reach the lower 90’s. Forecast become much more interesting Sunday evening as lift from a strong short wave over the southern plains and a stalling frontal boundary over N TX will likely produce widespread showers and thunderstorms from NC to NE TX. Some of this activity may move into SE TX late Sunday evening in Monday morning. Moisture profiles deepen with PWS surging to near 2.30 inches early Monday and there is even some hint at some decent low level inflow.

Concern is that some sort of organized and slow moving thunderstorm complex may develop over NC TX and slowly sink into SE TX early Monday. Given the nearly saturated profiles heavy to excessive rainfall would be possible with hourly rates potentially 2-4 inches. While much of this will be driven on the meso scale (outflow boundaries) there is some decent upper level support (rare for August) that could help sustain thunderstorms. Storm motions are expected to be slow and potential for some cell training. Heaviest rainfall signal is currently just N of SE TX, but close enough to keep an eye on.

90L:

Strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is moving westward at 15-20mph with limited thunderstorm activity. Increased easterly trade winds over the central Caribbean Sea result in low level divergence which is unfavorable for tropical systems to form in. However as the wave axis reaches the western Caribbean Sea the low level trades slow and “pile up” leading to increasing low level convergence which is favorable for the development of deep convection. The wave axis will reach the western Caribbean on Sunday where deep convection will likely begin to develop and organize. Model trends today have come into better agreement that the ridging along the US Gulf coast is likely to remain just strong enough to keep the system moving W to WNW passing well south of TX. The ECWMF which was the stronger northern outlier yesterday is weaker and further south today with a final landfall over mainland MX near Tampico. General forecast is to bring a tropical storm across the southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche Tuesday-Thursday. While models have come into better agreement today, residents along the TX coast, especially the lower TX coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

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Early morning Visible and IR satellite imagery suggest 90L has gain a bit of latitude and thunderstorm activity has increased around a weak mid level circulation as 9L moves West in the strong Easterly trade wind flow, but as the disturbance nears land the Easterly trade winds slow and pile up suggesting the potential for increasing thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance therefor strengthening is looking a bit more like somewhere over the NW Caribbean Sea near Honduras/Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The odds of Tropic Cyclone Genesis increased some overnight from 40% yesterday to 50% this morning.

Image
Image
The attachment 08052017 00Z TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2017080500_altg_000_120.png is no longer available
MIMIC suggests there is plenty of deep tropical moisture associated with this disturbance and even a hint of spin as the tropical wave shows signs of folding over as it continues to head West across the Central Caribbean SE of Jamaica around 14N and 75W.

Image

Hemispheric Pattern continues to support the potential for Tropical Development, particularly in the Western Atlantic Basin as the MJO Filtered Velocity Potential is in a favorable Phase and that Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave is getting to a position virtually over where all the computer models "think" TC Development may begin. So far, The National Hurricane Center has not began monitoring this disturbance with the various Hurricane Computer Guidance but that likely will begin sometime today or tonight to further assist in determining where this thing is eventually going. A great deal of caution needs to be used on speculating where 90L will eventually head and how weak or strong it may become. We have no Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm/Hurricane at this time and until we do, the various tracks and intensity guidance is merely for entertainment purposes. All interest from Guatemala to SW Louisiana should continue to monitor developments throughout the weekend into early/mid next week. Chances are growing we may have Franklin somewhere in the Western Gulf early next week.
08052017 00Z TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2017080500_altg_000_120.png
08052017 filterMJO_vp_Phase.png
08052017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
08052017 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
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Mike Ventrice of WSI via Twitter allows us to visually see the various 51 individual members of the ECMWF EPS. Clearly The Mexico Gulf Coast is the most likely scenario for eventual landfall, but you cane see a few members keep the system over water a little longer and into South Texas.
08052017 00Z EC EPS Members DGdm0LAUIAADtzO.jpg
Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Invest 99L losing steam in the recent ECMWF EPS run- 90L still likely to spin up into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche.
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Reconnaissance Missions to 90L have been tasked. Notice on the second Mission to investigate the area of disturbed weather the NHC believes we may have a Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 05 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-066

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 06/1800Z                   A. 07/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
       C. 06/1400Z                   C. 07/0800Z
       D. 16.0N 81.0W                D. 17.0N 85.0W
       E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z       E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
    FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
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