Katdaddy wrote:Nocturnal core rains have me concerned as well. Many of us remember Claudette 1979 that dumped 43"
of rain in 24 hours 3.2 miles NW of Alvin, TX.
Claudette was a core rain event like Allison 2001, Amelia 1978, and 1921 Thrall.
I have heard there was no lightning during Claudette.
We got hammered by Allison in 2001 during her first go round. Could not leave the house, but my co workers were able to go to work as they lived in other areas. Than the second round hit other areas.
Interesting watching the radar as we sit in that dry line. Saw a band heading up 59 right for us, than it moved to the west.
Belmer wrote:NAM 3km is showing an absolute deluge for SETX through Tuesday. Has Harvey just sitting near Victoria till Monday before drifting slowly SE toward the Galveston coast and just inudating us with training rainbands.
Edit to add - may be a little blur or hard to see numbers, but widespread 30 inches across the area. But max I could find is 45.16 just north of downtown. Do I think that will happen? Unlikely, but I do think it is doing a good job showing that SETX is by no means out of the threat until midweek next week.
With the rain amount so far today, I think 30 inches or greater is possible.
I've gotten 9.4 inches since yesterday afternoon.The neighborhoods out here with open ditch drainage are already seeing them starting to fill.
cisa wrote:Hi guys. Haven't posted much lately but have been following all the great information here. Is everything still appearing going as thought? I notice Harvey pushed further inland. I was wondering if that changed the longer range thoughts? Thanks guys!
No changes with the sensible weather forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours at this time. Flood Threat remains.
sau27 wrote:I have unfortunately seen too many people crying bust already. Remember Allison took 4 days to come back for her knockout punch.
Right on. Perhaps one of the pros will weigh in on the latest GFS model that according to a poster on another forum indicates 24+ inches in the Houston area between now and 12 pm on Monday.
Yeah i was looking at allisons path in 2001. Where harveys track moves north west of houston is the exact same path/track allison took when she came back down for her knockout punch. So, have a feeling this is far from over. Yes the winds i feel we can let our guards down now, BUT the catastrophic flooding is still as extreme as it was 3 days ago for us until harvey is literally out of the state whichever way that may be! People are forgetting, NHC still has harvey or ex harvey closer to us than he's ever been tuesday/Wednesday next week as a depression! The heavy rain and flooding will remain for the entire week! Folks are just thinking that since they're not getting 30" NOW, its a bust! They need to understand this 30" has always been forecasted over a period of 4-5 days and not all at once.
Looking at the center on radar- I would say it has stalled out now. Hasn't moved at all in latest frames. The gfs 12z keeps the highest totals out west and southwest of here. Still shows 10+ for most of the area though the HRRR model shows heavier totals through 18 hrs...
Last edited by TexasBreeze on Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Thankfully the Houston-Galveston areas have had some breaks in the feeder bands but we are far from over with Harvey. Flooding remains a significant threat into next week. Also the Tornado threat remains across SE TX for this afternoon with a new watch coming out shortly to replace the one that expires at 1PM. Our rain total at the house in W League City is up to 4.96”. Mag Creek behind the house is 50% full and there is one tree down on the trails. Estimating 40-50MPH gusts occurred through the night.
sau27 wrote:I have unfortunately seen too many people crying bust already. Remember Allison took 4 days to come back for her knockout punch.
Right on. Perhaps one of the pros will weigh in on the latest GFS model that according to a poster on another forum indicates 24+ inches in the Houston area between now and 12 pm on Monday.
Sorry - not GFS, it's WRF-ARW. Is that a reliable model?
sau27 wrote:I have unfortunately seen too many people crying bust already. Remember Allison took 4 days to come back for her knockout punch.
Right on. Perhaps one of the pros will weigh in on the latest GFS model that according to a poster on another forum indicates 24+ inches in the Houston area between now and 12 pm on Monday.
We are in a nowcasting and shorter range mesoscale guidance mode for the most part. The GFS precip totals I see via the 12Z GFS keeps those 20+ additional totals mostly over Central and S Central Texas. Not sure that any model will 'sniff out " accurately the potential convective feedback issues known with some of the deterministic guidance. The 16Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) suggests an additional 20+ inches over the next 18 hours for example.
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sau27 wrote:I have unfortunately seen too many people crying bust already. Remember Allison took 4 days to come back for her knockout punch.
Right on. Perhaps one of the pros will weigh in on the latest GFS model that according to a poster on another forum indicates 24+ inches in the Houston area between now and 12 pm on Monday.
We are in a nowcasting and shorter range mesoscale guidance mode for the most part. The GFS precip totals I see via the 12Z GFS keeps those 20+ additional totals mostly over Central and S Central Texas. Not sure that any model will 'sniff out " accurately the potential convective feedback issues known with some of the deterministic guidance.
Thanks srain. Did you see my updated post -- I was in error about the model reference. Can you shed any light on WRF-ARW? I've never heard of that one.
sau27 wrote:I have unfortunately seen too many people crying bust already. Remember Allison took 4 days to come back for her knockout punch.
I am sure those near Corpus Christi and RockPort are not saying bust. And it's not over yet. I am keeping an eye on the radar and watching the posts here. Mr Harvey is still in the area!
TexasBreeze wrote:Looking at the center on radar- I would say it has stalled out now. Hasn't moved at all in latest frames. The gfs 12z keeps the highest totals out west and southwest of here. Still shows 10+ for most of the area though the HRRR model shows heavier totals through 18 hrs...
I agree, very little movement in the last few hours. Will be telling going into this evening whether it still slowly creeps N/NW or starts making the turn W and back south. I imagine it will spend much of the day just slowly wobbling.
HRRR hasn't done too bad with Harvey, so I am a little concerned on the rainfall output it is showing across Houston the next 18 hours (15-20 inches of rain for much of Houston). NAM 3km is agreeing with that too. Will all be where those feeder bands sets up as it will move very slowly over the same area.
