August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

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Snowman
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It looks like models are backing off from showing the storm loop back to Houston. Every run shows the storm staying farther and farther west. I suspect that will spare Houston the 30+ inches of rain. I'm thinking more like widespread 10-15.
unome
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Water Data For Texas

https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

numerous options at top of map
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Belmer
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Snowman wrote:It looks like models are backing off from showing the storm loop back to Houston. Every run shows the storm staying farther and farther west. I suspect that will spare Houston the 30+ inches of rain. I'm thinking more like widespread 10-15.
Models may be showing a lesser threat for Harvey inching our way through the week, but most models still have this storm stalling at least till Tuesday and that will just supply those feeder bands to move and train over areas in SETX. Out near Columbus and Sealy have already picked up nearly 10 inches and Houston area have seen 4-8. That is this morning alone. We still have about 3 full days of this, so I still expect some isolated areas to get 30+ inches since we are already at that minimum 10 inch estimate.
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Thank you!
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under
way. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt,
and that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is
over land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC
forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However,
if a portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of
Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

The hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt.
Harvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global
models keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based
on this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5
days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only
agreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not
going anywhere fast.

This slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the
potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least
through the middle of next week.

Please note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been
discontinued due to the degradation of Harvey's center on radar.

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey's winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening
hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday.
Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into
flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall
totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede
due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore
flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta
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mckinne63
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Received about 7" here in Stafford overnight. Pools and ponds overflowing. Thankfully my handy husband got the pool pumps working and we have drains in the yard. One drain was clogged, but hubby saw it and fixed it. We are currently sitting in the dry area with the bands coming in. All the rain is east and west of us. I have been hearing reports of a tornado in Sienna Plantation overnight, which is not too far from where we live.

Prayers going out to those that took the direct hit from Hurricane Harvey.

And praying for the coming days with this system.
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Belmer
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NAM 3km is showing an absolute deluge for SETX through Tuesday. Has Harvey just sitting near Victoria till Monday before drifting slowly SE toward the Galveston coast and just inudating us with training rainbands.

Edit to add - may be a little blur or hard to see numbers, but widespread 30 inches across the area. But max I could find is 45.16 just north of downtown. Do I think that will happen? Unlikely, but I do think it is doing a good job showing that SETX is by no means out of the threat until midweek next week.
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago
Updated rainfall totals from WPC for the next 7 days. Think of #Harvey's intense rain as a marathon, not a sprint #houwx #glswx #bcswx #txwx

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08262017 HGX 2 Morning 7 day qpf DIKRsosXgAA39c5.jpg
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srainhoutx
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Folks in our S/SW/W/NW areas keep on eye out for a new feeder band developing and slowly crawling NE toward Metro Houston.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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cisa
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Hi guys. Haven't posted much lately but have been following all the great information here. Is everything still appearing going as thought? I notice Harvey pushed further inland. I was wondering if that changed the longer range thoughts? Thanks guys!
No rain, no rainbows.
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Texaspirate11
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Just dumped out over 8 inches of rain by the bay.
Water coming out the canal.
Clear Lake Shores had wind gusts of 55 mph last night.
Still raining....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
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srainhoutx
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cisa wrote:Hi guys. Haven't posted much lately but have been following all the great information here. Is everything still appearing going as thought? I notice Harvey pushed further inland. I was wondering if that changed the longer range thoughts? Thanks guys!
No changes with the sensible weather forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours at this time. Flood Threat remains.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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singlemom
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Belmer wrote:
Snowman wrote:It looks like models are backing off from showing the storm loop back to Houston. Every run shows the storm staying farther and farther west. I suspect that will spare Houston the 30+ inches of rain. I'm thinking more like widespread 10-15.
Models may be showing a lesser threat for Harvey inching our way through the week, but most models still have this storm stalling at least till Tuesday and that will just supply those feeder bands to move and train over areas in SETX. Out near Columbus and Sealy have already picked up nearly 10 inches and Houston area have seen 4-8. That is this morning alone. We still have about 3 full days of this, so I still expect some isolated areas to get 30+ inches since we are already at that minimum 10 inch estimate.
^^^This^^^ Thanks, Belmer! My house in Northwest Harris County is in the 7 day NHC cone where this system even if it tracks a bit West. While much of Houston may be spared, those of us in the Northwest quadrant may not.
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Stress this it it FAR from over for the Houston area!!! May have to watch for the 2 bands east and western areas to collide here soon enhancing rainfall rates...
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Ptarmigan
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Belmer wrote:NAM 3km is showing an absolute deluge for SETX through Tuesday. Has Harvey just sitting near Victoria till Monday before drifting slowly SE toward the Galveston coast and just inudating us with training rainbands.

Edit to add - may be a little blur or hard to see numbers, but widespread 30 inches across the area. But max I could find is 45.16 just north of downtown. Do I think that will happen? Unlikely, but I do think it is doing a good job showing that SETX is by no means out of the threat until midweek next week.
With the rain amount so far today, I think 30 inches or greater is possible.
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:
Rip76 wrote:Bands coming in heavy off the gulf now and don't appear to be letting up for quite sometime.
Latest guidance suggests we will be under the gun through at least Tuesday. Feeder band issues today/tomorrow and Monday along with the potential for nocturnal core rain events over the next 72 to 96 hours.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0Z/HGX_loop.gif
Core rains are something I have been concerned about. They could dump a large amount of rain in a short time.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Texaspirate11
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If my area gets approximately 8 inches of rain in the next 4 days it would add up to 32 inches.
Its not coming all at once - we do get a bit of a break in between Harvey's rain band down here by the bay
Tornadoes are frightening thought too...
Its a MARATHON not a sprint as I heard officials say. Very appropriate.
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Katdaddy
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Nocturnal core rains have me concerned as well. Many of us remember Claudette 1979 that dumped 43"
of rain in 24 hours 3.2 miles NW of Alvin, TX.
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Ptarmigan
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Katdaddy wrote:Nocturnal core rains have me concerned as well. Many of us remember Claudette 1979 that dumped 43"
of rain in 24 hours 3.2 miles NW of Alvin, TX.
Claudette was a core rain event like Allison 2001, Amelia 1978, and 1921 Thrall.

I have heard there was no lightning during Claudette.
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