August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[texasrattler]

Looking at the latest HGX composite radar, it's filled with activity. As I write this, it shows a large area of moderate rainfall directly over my part of Fort Bend county. Yet, it is not even sprinkling. Is this effect something unique to the the interaction of tropical systems and Doppler radar? Usually, the HGX composite is dead on with rainfall it is depicting (normal thunderstorms, etc.)

[jasons2k]

Looking at the latest HGX composite radar, it's filled with activity. As I write this, it shows a large area of moderate rainfall directly over my part of Fort Bend county. Yet, it is not even sprinkling. Is this effect something unique to the the interaction of tropical systems and Doppler radar? Usually, the HGX composite is dead on with rainfall it is depicting (normal thunderstorms, etc.)

Composite is a sampling of all layers of the atmophere, so it can be quite overdone. I usually stick to base reflectivity for rainfall.

[kayci]

Kayci, we made a decision a couple of year ago that the Main Page for Gulf of Mexico threats is easier to see when mobile.

Corpus Christi from Mark...

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFc ... 0825131022

I don't understand srain... What is the point of Hurricane Central Thred for the GOM if it is only for mobile? but... whatever... I would like to see tracking and future casts of Harvey that would be great. Thanx.

[DoctorMu]

The threat includes our local Houston area so instead of having multiple threads talking about it, it is kept here.
I read that the Euro shows an epic rainfall total for a large part of the area. Any details on that? The 12z gfs put out a 35 at my house northwest Harris County!!!

Yeah, the 12Z Euro moves Harvey between HOU and CLL on Thursday!!

The GFS has Harvey slowly dissipating just east of San Antonio over the course of the next week.



Canadian sees Harvey slipping up the coast as a TS during the week.

Naval also

[srainhoutx]

Kayci, we made a decision a couple of year ago that the Main Page for Gulf of Mexico threats is easier to see when mobile.

Corpus Christi from Mark...

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFc ... 0825131022

I don't understand srain... What is the point of Hurricane Central Thred for the GOM if it is only for mobile? but... whatever... I would like to see tracking and future casts of Harvey that would be great. Thanx.

18Z tracks

[DoctorMu]

Speaks for itself.

[Ounce]

Here's the WeatherBug site for the Dow facility in Seadrift. No camera, just conditions.
http://web.live.weatherbug.com/LiveObse ... FT&lid=DOM

and Calhoun County Airport in Point Comfort.
http://web.live.weatherbug.com/LiveObse ... KV&lid=DOM

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 341 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Galveston Pleasure Pier moving northwest
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas City, La
Marque, Hitchcock, Galveston Pier 21, Bayou Vista, Tiki Island,
Pelican Island, Schlitterbahn, Scholes Field, The Strand, Offatts
Bayou, Galveston Pleasure Pier, Moody Gardens and San Leon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

[Ounce]

I had been on the local TV newscast for the last 3 days. I never heard anything about the dam releasing of water to lower the threshold a few days before Harvey arrival? If the hurricane is going to dump 36" of rain why no preempt to lower the reservoir level. In the last few years a short storm had caused flooding when the dam overflow and release of water AFTER the storm. Is the TV station forget about the dam?

Which dam are you concerned about? If it's Barker, it's 30' below top of spillway and Addicks is 47' below top of spillway. The sensor at Buffalo Bayou and the Beltway has increased 1' over the past 12 hours.

[srainhoutx]

FYI: Dr. Neil Frank and David Paul will be LIVE on KHOU 11 @ 4:00

[Scott747]

I'm seeing slight indications the the steering flow is slowing down...

[DoctorMu]

Harvey's eye is now 55-60 miles off short heading for a collision course just north of Corpus. So things will deteriorate fast.

Winds are about 40 mph in Corpus. With peak winds in the eye wall exceeding 120 mph, wind force and thus impact will go up exponentially.

3X the windspeed = 9 teams more force and 18 times more energy that a 40 mph wind.

The fluid drag equation predicts the face, which is related to the SQUARE of the windspeed.

Fd = 1/2 Cd • Ap • rho • v[sqr]

[DoctorMu]

Aransas National Refuge - under the gun.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-rb.html

[basketballrox88]

I'm seeing slight indications the the steering flow is slowing down...

What could this mean? Scenarios?

[TexasBreeze]

I'm seeing slight indications the the steering flow is slowing down...

I agree the storm looks like it is just inching along now...

[srainhoutx]

Plan for record flooding the next 7 days as of now. Rainfall totals may exceed 35 inches of rainfall with isolated totals approaching 40 inches according to the NHC. The WPC 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Graphics are off their highest scale which is why you see now projected amounts listed. Please pay close attention to reliable sources. This is a very serious situation, if Historic. Not everyone will see those high totals, but the potential is there. Watch radar carefully. We will need to see where the feeder bands set up. It's under those feeder bands where the higher end of the projected highest rainfall totals will likely occur.

[unome]

18Z tracks

lol... priceless... it's all perfectly clear now ! I needed a grin, thanks for that.

[davidiowx]

Plan for record flooding the next 7 days as of now. Rainfall totals may exceed 35 inches of rainfall with isolated totals approaching 40 inches according to the NHC. The WPC 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Graphics are off their highest scale which is why you see now projected amounts listed. Please pay close attention tol reliable sources. This is a very serious situation, if Historic. Not everyone will see those high totals, but the potential is there. Watch radar carefully. We will need to see where the feeder bands set up. It's under those feeder bands where the higher end of the projected highest rainfall totals will likely occur.

Please pay attention to this post folks!

Looks like a feeder is starting to set up in Matagorda and approaching Brazoria county.

[basketballrox88]

Frank Billingsley just said that Harvey will stop and then turn north before landfall. Something to watch.

[cperk]

Frank Billingsley just said that Harvey will stop and then turn north before landfall. Something to watch.

First i have heard of that.