August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION THIS MORNING...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed
is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is expected to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane was 950
mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area later today and tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist
into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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djjordan
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Recon has found that pressure has dropped to 947 mb. Well on its way to Cat 3 this morning.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL092017
725 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

This product covers Southeast Texas

**PREPARATIONS FOR HARVEY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
for Chambers and Harris
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Austin, Colorado,
Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, and Wharton
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Jackson and Matagorda
- A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for Brazoria and Galveston

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 220 miles south-southwest of Galveston TX
- 26.3N 95.8W
- Storm Intensity 110 mph
- Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Harvey has continued to strengthen this morning to a high-end category
2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Harvey is
forecast to continue strengthening and will most likely become a major
hurricane today before it makes landfall along the Middle Texas Coast
later tonight. The primary impact from Harvey over Southeast Texas
remains prolonged significant heavy rainfall that will induce extreme
widespread flooding through at least the beginning of next week.
Tropical storm force winds, with occasional hurricane force wind gusts,
and storm surge will occur along the coast as early as this afternoon
and persist through Tuesday. Coastal flooding due to storm surge and
wave run up will remain an issue throughout the weekend and into the
beginning of next week as strong onshore winds will continue to pile
water up along the coastline. Again, the primary emphasis and greatest
threat to life and property will be the extreme rainfall amounts that
will likely lead to a potentially catastrophic and prolonged flash
flooding event.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across Southeast Texas, particularly along and
south of the I-10 corridor. Potential impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.


* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across the Upper Texas Coast. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
- Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across northern Galveston Bay and Trinity Bay.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across Matagorda Bay from Port O'Connor to Sargent. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across the rest of Southeast Texas.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Southeast Texas. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
For those under evacuation orders, leave as soon as practical with a
destination in mind. Gas up your vehicle well ahead of time. Be sure
that you take all essential materials from your emergency supplies kit.
Let others know where you are going and when you intend to arrive.

If evacuating the area, stick to prescribed evacuation routes. Look
for additional traffic information on roadway smart signs and listen to
select radio channels for further travel instructions. Drivers should
not use cell phones while operating vehicles.

For those not under evacuation orders, understand that there are
inherent risks to evacuation (such as traffic congestion, accidents,
and driving in bad weather), so evacuate only if necessary. Help keep
roadways open for those that are under evacuation orders.

If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or water hazards from
tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation, especially if being
officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe
destination.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect
life and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as possible before
weather conditions completely deteriorate. Any remaining evacuations
and relocations should be expedited before the onset of tropical
storm force wind.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. If
heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or own a
pet. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Check the latest weather forecast before departing.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a Good Samaritan and helpful to others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

If you are a visitor and still in the area, listen for the name of
the city or town in which you are staying within local news updates.
Be sure you know the name of the county or parish in which it
resides. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Houston/Galveston TX around 1030 AM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Very sobering moment today. It's been since 2005 since the last Major Hurricane made landfall along the United States Coastline. We all are concerned and hopefully prepared the best we can be. I wish each of you well and we'll be here to provide updates during and after the storm passes. That said it's worrisome to see the amount of time we will be dealing with Harvey. This undoubtedly will be a Hurricane that Texas folks will not soon forget.
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08252017 12Z 09L_tracks_12z.png
08252017 12Z 09L_intensity_12z.png
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srainhoutx wrote:Very sobering moment today. It's been since 2005 since the last Major Hurricane made landfall along the United States Coastline. We all are concerned and hopefully prepared the best we can be. I wish each of you well and we'll be here to provide updates during and after the storm passes. That said it's worrisome to see the amount of time we will be dealing with Harvey. This undoubtedly will be a Hurricane that Texas folks will not soon forget.

I live in Cypress and we are ready! I agree, this is going to be one we will not forget...Stay safe everyone...
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I work Downtown Houston and we are getting hammered with rain...
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Agreed Steve. This is a historic moment we are seeing in tropical meteorology. This will be a long stretch for all of us. The pro mets will not get much sleep at all. Again, thank you all for being here. Be prepared. Be safe. Have your plan and work it.
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08252017 mcd0725.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0725
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX/SOUTHWEST LA COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251300Z - 251900Z

SUMMARY...AN OUTER BAND FROM HURRICANE HARVEY IS APPROACHING AREAS
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THEIR ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL. FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE HARVEY IS PINNING NORTHWEST OFFSHORE THE
LOWER TX COAST. TO ITS NORTHEAST, A RAIN BAND IS INTERSECTING AN
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST TX AND STRADDLING
THE LA COAST. THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SEPARATES DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND LOW 70S FROM MID AND UPPER 70S DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 2.25-2.5". INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
CONVERGENT AT 25-40 KTS, ABOUT 50% ABOVE THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.

THE MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS THAT THE BAND COULD HANG UP AND
TRAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TX AND/OR
IMPERIAL CALCASIEU OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
KEEP THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT RELATIVELY COASTAL, PARTICULARLY
NEAR SOUTHWEST LA. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH HARVEY'S OVERALL RAIN PATTERN PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
SOUTHWEST LA IN PARTICULAR HAS ALREADY RECEIVED THEIR ANNUAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL. PORT ARTHUR TX ITSELF IS SENSITIVE TO
ADDITIONAL RAINS DUE TO DAM-RELATED ISSUES. WITH HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 3" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING IS
A THREAT ACROSS SENSITIVE AND URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Wow.

Not much else to say.
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djmike
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Question. All the rainfall maps we've seen showing us getting 20"+, is that only when Harvey comes ashore near corpus and stalls or does that also cover Harvey's potential path over us also? Ive seen a few maps showing these totals getting much higher as he advances into setx/swla. Thanks in advance.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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is the front still to the north or has it washed out?
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Rip76 wrote:Wow.

Not much else to say.
lets hope there are no surprises and prayers for all in harveys path
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srainhoutx
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djmike wrote:Question. All the rainfall maps we've seen showing us getting 20"+, is that only when Harvey comes ashore near corpus and stalls or does that also cover Harvey's potential path over us also? Ive seen a few maps showing these totals getting much higher as he advances into setx/swla. Thanks in advance.
Expect 25 to 35 inches of rainfall from today to whenever Harvey finally exits our Region with some isolated totals much higher depending on where the training feeder bands set up. Those feeder bands are capable of dropping 3-5 inches per hour, but it will be impossible to determine too far in advance exactly where and which neighborhoods will be impacted. Those estimates may still be on the conservative side via the WPC/NWS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Agreed as well........not much more to say. This looks to be an epic tropical cyclone that will be talked about for many years. Currently setting at 0.85" as a week of Harvey begins.
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Is it just me or do I see a NNW to N motion with Harvey now? If you live in a flood plain (100 year or 500 year) get out! :roll:
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Not to add to the already long list of concerns but I am a bit worried about us getting a core rain event after looking at the 0z and 6z GFS runs. Both runs have the center over, or very near Houston during the over-night hours of Tuesday into Wednesday.
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This is not urgent - and I don't know if Jeff Lindner every comes to this forum. I want to give a MAJOR shout-out to him. I heard him talking on KRBE this morning and he was really come across very clear about the weather threats, without overdoing it for the Houston folks. It's obviously difficult to describe the situation we are in right now. Obviously the peeps down along the coast are in dire straits and need to get out of there. Inland are more - different threats - and not quite as dire. Jeff did a great job of explaining this. Kudos!
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Katdaddy wrote:Agreed as well........not much more to say. This looks to be an epic tropical cyclone that will be talked about for many years. Currently setting at 0.85" as a week of Harvey begins.

Agreed and as we speak, HCC will be closing at 12 noon today.
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tireman4
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houstonia wrote:This is not urgent - and I don't know if Jeff Lindner every comes to this forum. I want to give a MAJOR shout-out to him. I heard him talking on KRBE this morning and he was really come across very clear about the weather threats, without overdoing it for the Houston folks. It's obviously difficult to describe the situation we are in right now. Obviously the peeps down along the coast are in dire straits and need to get out of there. Inland are more - different threats - and not quite as dire. Jeff did a great job of explaining this. Kudos!
He does..often...I am sure he will be on for periods of time all weekend.
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