August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Everyone from Galveston to South Padre needs to be preparing Today for Harvey. Pay attention as djjordan and Srain indicated to any Evacuation orders... and ROUTES. IIRC the Rita evacuation was a Disaster.

I've lived in Texas from 25 years but am from North Carolina and have seen a few TCs. This one is serious business...and unfortunately steering currents are light once Harvey reaches shore. Prepare, expect the worst, and hope for the best.


https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/ ... 80x720.jpg

Image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... toa_34.png
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
User avatar
djjordan
Posts: 928
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Kayci, These are the only evacuation orders I have come across for Brazoria County as of now.


Brazoria County - Mandatory evacuation order issued for coastal communities along the Gulf side of the Intercoastal Waterway

Brazoria County - Voluntary evacuation order issued for low-lying coastal areas inland of Intercoastal Waterway.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Image
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

I read somewhere Galveston has issued voluntary evacuations down there on some parts of the island. In particular the Bolivar area.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

davidiowx wrote:I read somewhere Galveston has issued voluntary evacuations down there on some parts of the island. In particular the Bolivar area.

Really good idea.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

TxDot opening evacuation lane on I-37 from Corpus to San Antonio.
houstonia
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
Contact:

snowman65 wrote:
kayci wrote:My husband heard on the radio just now of mandatory evacuations for all coastal counties. Is this correct? I am in Brazoria county. We are totally hurricane (evacuation) prepared, but I haven't seen anything about Brazoria Co. and wondering if the radio station was exaggerating.
Please advise,
Thanx Yall for all you do!
IMO, If you are packed and ready, I would leave, beat the rush. I'm sure at some point you will be in the mandatory zone so might as well head out now if you have a place to go....that's what I would do, FWIW....best of luck to you!
The latest on EVACS from HCFCD met:
Mandatory Evacuation: Brazoria County (Gulf of Mexico to the Intracoastal Canal)
Mandatory Evacuation: all Calhoun County (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: Matagorda County (South of FM 521 and FM 2611 in Sargent), all areas S of FM 521 in Matagorda County, all areas south of Business 35 W of Palacios. All persons under age of 18 must leave the evacuation area
Port Aransas/Aransas Pass: Mandatory evacuation (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: all San Patricio County (effective at noon today)
Mandatory Evacuation: City of Ingleside (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: All Refugio County (effective immediately)
Like
CommentShare
User avatar
kayci
Posts: 358
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 10:30 am
Location: Alvin
Contact:

djjordan wrote:Kayci, These are the only evacuation orders I have come across for Brazoria County as of now.


Brazoria County - Mandatory evacuation order issued for coastal communities along the Gulf side of the Intercoastal Waterway

Brazoria County - Voluntary evacuation order issued for low-lying coastal areas inland of Intercoastal Waterway.
Thank you DJ, I think we will head to our friend in Fredericksburg
javakah
Posts: 128
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:20 pm
Location: Fulshear
Contact:

Can really see the development of the eye on GOES-16 Visible over the last few hours.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Harvey is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is
then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become
a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas
coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Since the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a
dropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb. However, the
plane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the
previous Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a
research mission at a nonstandard level). For now, the initial
intensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force
flight this evening.

Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening
mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push
Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest
motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger
mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast
to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just
inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the
track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly
eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will
remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48
hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much
greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast
to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the
cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official
forecast.

Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.
Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm
eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next
12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with
Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.
There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to
the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow
shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach
the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC
intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3
through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this
part of the forecast.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg

Attachments
08242017 4 PM Harvey 152721_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
houstonia
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:51 pm
Location: Houston, Texas (Southwest side; Sharpstown)
Contact:

That is one nasty discussion and forecast. I am not looking forward to the next five days...
davidiowx
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Image
MRG93415
Posts: 123
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:36 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

davidiowx wrote:Image
Does that say 25.4 inches of rain?
sau27
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:04 am
Location: Bellaire
Contact:

MRG93415 wrote:
davidiowx wrote:Image
Does that say 25.4 inches of rain?
I have never seen pink on a QPF map. Ouch
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

NHC is getting very, very close to my initial call of Sargent, TX.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

MRG93415 wrote:
davidiowx wrote:Image
Does that say 25.4 inches of rain?
Yes it does. and the WPC may still be conservative in their estimates if Harvey doesn't behave as expected. Whoever (which locations) get under the main feeder bands may see much higher totals. Remember, the NHC forecast shows a stall somewhere just inland and possibly right along the Coast before it moves again paralleling the Middle and Upper Texas Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

I honestly can't say that I have ever in my lifetime seen that many inches ever forecasted on this qpf and I followed them for years!! 25.4"!!! The legend doesn't even go that high. They probably had to think of a new color they have never used before also! This will be epic disastrous! Not only for the central coast but I feel the entire Texas and possibly LA coastline. I am now in aweee.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1702
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

This has got to be a once in a lifetime event. From the major hurricane, to loopy loo, ride the entire coast northeastward and dump 25" or more for so many. We might never see this again.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

I want to remind everyone to remember to check what they are at risk for with this storm. All day I have received panicked phone calls from people living in the immediate Houston metro, Katy, and the woodlands asking if they should evacuate. Based on recon and current trends the forecast confidence is pretty high that a landfall between Corpus and Matagorda Bay is very likely. While tropical storm winds could be seen much to the north and east, for a lot of individuals around here flooding will be the primary issue. Continue to take precautions and prepare but also remain sensible about the actions you take. If you are in an evacuation zone, evacuate!

This storm will be very devastating for those from Corpus to Matagorda. Not only will the wind and storm surge be an impact but up to 30 or even 40 inches of rain could fall. This storm isn't going to be done anytime soon and after landfall will be the telling for the rest of us to the northeast. Where this stalls will be the clue for how bad it gets closer to Houston.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot], jasons2k and 65 guests