August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

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tireman4
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Ounce wrote:
tireman4 wrote:
ticka1 wrote:HISD has cancelled classes for Monday and all weekend activities.
We are waiting at HCC.....sigh...
Until such time, get back to work or on the mill, TMan!
Back to work..finally running again after my surgery.
saltwater35
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Been lurking hear for a few years, first time hurricane in the city from growing up on the Coast. Are there any preparations I should be doing to the house, i.e. boarding windows and garage door? NW side near 290 and belt 8. I have the standard provision stocked of water, food, and gas. Thanks for all yalls info.
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tireman4
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davidiowx wrote:
Scott747 wrote:Harvey continues to eclipse the tracking points to the n ahead by 6 hrs. Could be another shift up the coast with the 1 pm special package.

That is not a good sign..

That is what I was thinking..but I was not sure..
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12Z HWRF
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241532
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1032 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the short term period for today, a very moist and unstable
airmass was over Southeast Texas. PWs of 2-2.2 inches with MU Cape
values of 1500 to 2000 combined with an inverted V profile under
800 mb show the potential for isolated storms producing strong
wind gusts. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will move from east
to west from the Gulf onto the coastal areas.

Upped the rain chances for today. Other changes were due to the
updated information for Harvey. See the latest forecasts for
Harvey for the latest storm information.
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tireman4 wrote:
davidiowx wrote:
Scott747 wrote:Harvey continues to eclipse the tracking points to the n ahead by 6 hrs. Could be another shift up the coast with the 1 pm special package.

That is not a good sign..

That is what I was thinking..but I was not sure..
What does this mean? Galveston?
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 241747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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srainhoutx
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Hurricane Harvey Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This special advisory is being issued to update Harvey's initial
and forecast intensities through the 48-hour period. The storm
surge values in the public advisory have also been updated based on
the new intensity forecast.

Recent data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Harvey's maximum sustained winds have
increased to 75 kt. The Air Force plane measured maximum 850-mb
flight-level winds of 88 kt and reliable SFMR winds around 75 kt.
Based on the hurricane's current rate of intensification, the
forecast intensities at 12 and 24 h have been raised by 15 kt,
with a 10-kt increase at 36 h. There are no changes to the track or
wind radii forecast with this special advisory.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled
100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey has intensified rapidly, and is forecast to be a major
hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge,
rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the
hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas
coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please
refer to products from your local National Weather Service office
and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the
flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 24.4N 93.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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tireman4
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So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
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tireman4 wrote:So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
Yes. Watch carefully the 18Z Full Guidance Update. Any further shift up the Coast, we in SE Texas may have a problem more than just a inland rainfall threat.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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Euro 12z has Harvey landing around Corpus still. We're on the dirty side. The storm is massive and tropical force winds will extend > 100 mi from the center. Hurricane - 50 mi?

Image
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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When I look at the cone of uncertainty it appears that Montgomery County is included. However, Montgomery County has not been included in the list for Watches and/or Warnings, yet. :?
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That's more matagorda
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tireman4
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srainhoutx wrote:
tireman4 wrote:So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
Yes. Watch carefully the 18Z Full Guidance Update. Any further shift up the Coast, we in SE Texas may have a problem more than just a inland rainfall threat.
Not sure what you are hearing on your line ( I know you have pipelines being a pro met than us..:) ) that is it "getting stronger and stronger. Recon found flight level winds over 100mph recently" . Have you heard that?
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tireman4 wrote:So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
The noon and 1p.m. updates showed the same direction/speed at 335/10mph.

Not sure if that helps or hurt the 6 hour track diff or not.
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stormlover wrote:That's more matagorda
The latitude is a bit above Del Rio - I'd say about Rockport for the center.

Certainly Matagorda on the NE side would see major impacts.
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Ounce wrote:
tireman4 wrote:So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
The noon and 1p.m. updates showed the same direction/speed at 335/10mph.

Not sure if that helps or hurt the 6 hour track diff or not.
Latest recon fixes are a little more NW versus NNW which is good news but it still is a little north of the forecast track.
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DoctorMu
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Almost stationary at 72 hours Euro. Maybe a few miles more toward Matagorda.

Not worth parsing. Matagorda to Houston better be prepared for rain, and sustained tropical force wind event.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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tireman4 wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
tireman4 wrote:So, I guess they (NHC) will deal with the track at the 4?
Yes. Watch carefully the 18Z Full Guidance Update. Any further shift up the Coast, we in SE Texas may have a problem more than just a inland rainfall threat.
Not sure what you are hearing on your line ( I know you have pipelines being a pro met than us..:) ) that is it "getting stronger and stronger. Recon found flight level winds over 100mph recently" . Have you heard that?
Are we in SETX expected to see another shift northward at 4pm or do you feel the west end of Matagorda Bay seems official? The northward shift at the 10am was very minimal. Is that do to NHC not wanting to make huge adjustments all at once? Thoughts?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Wow euro run bad
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