August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

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Portastorm
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Great discussion srain! You really put this whole situation into perspective with lots of great info. Thank you!
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srainhoutx
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RECON has found a weak low level circulation, but Harvey has suffered from the wind shear impacting it.
08192017 1256Z Zoomed Obs recon_AF302-0309A-HARVEY_zoom.png
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Vortex Message suggests the NHC will likely keep Harvey alive at the next Advisory around 10:00 CDT...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 13:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 12:50:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°35'N 67°34'W (13.5833N 67.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 348 statute miles (560 km) to the SSW (197°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 17kts (~ 19.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 186° at 17kts (From the S at ~ 19.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 332m (1,089ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 15 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) which was observed 142 nautical miles (163 statute miles) to the NE (55°) from the flight level center at 10:55:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
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srainhoutx
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NHC Tropical Specialist Jack Beven keeps Harvey a Tropical Storm...

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this
time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and
the circulation looking less well defined. In addition, an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the
circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000
ft. The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but
the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled. Thus, the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 275/19. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours.
Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of
Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should
pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross
Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and
based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only
minor changes from the previous track.

The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another
12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization
should allow at best only slow strengthening. After that, the
upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening
as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western
Caribbean. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in
calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system
reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey should weaken as it
crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96
h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. It
should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next
12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly
wave.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.9N 68.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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08192017 10AM CDT Harvey Track 145608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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Rip76
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Adjusted a little more to the south?
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Shear is our friend when it comes to tropical development. Harvey is downgraded to a TD in the 4PM advisory and slowly loosing its battle. Looks much more like a tropical wave on satellite this afternoon. The 18Z models still keep Harvey S of TX. With that said it should be watched until it moves inland or dissipates.

Back home over SE TX its another very hot and humid day with a few very isolated showers.
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Electric Lizard
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One always has to be careful when wishing for a glancing blow from a tropical system to provide some drought relief, but it looks like we can pretty much count Harvey out. That said, I'm rooting for the TUTT. GO TUTT GO!
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Electric Lizard wrote:One always has to be careful when wishing for a glancing blow from a tropical system to provide some drought relief, but it looks like we can pretty much count Harvey out. That said, I'm rooting for the TUTT. GO TUTT GO!
I'm looking for a TUTT-ered Wave!

King TUTT.
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srainhoutx
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Overnight Harvey has come back to life from being an open wave in a highly sheared environment to that of what appears to be a developing Tropical Cyclone. Wind shear has collapsed as was expected and it appears an upper level Anticyclone has developed making for ideal conditions for intensification. We will see later today when RECON makes a trek out to investigate if Harvey is as strong as it looks on satellite this morning...if that deep organized convection persists. It serves as a reminder that we never take our eye off a Tropical Disturbance until its dead and gone, particularly when we are in late August and September.
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in
association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of
this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone
once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.
Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
08202017  8 AM EDT two_atl_5d1.png
08202017 12Z Harvey 09L_tracks_12z.png
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Based on satellite this morning, it appears rumors of Harvey's death were greatly exaggerated. ;)
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Sunday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will slide westward and toward the TX coast over the next 24-48 hours with a return of daily rain chances starting this afternoon and through much of the week.

Upper level ridge responsible for the recent dry and hot weather will be slowly breaking down and replaced with a weakness aloft as an eastern Gulf of Mexico upper level low moves toward the region this week. Tropical moisture is already starting to arrive into deep SE TX and SW LA where regional radar show an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Storms will move WNW/W inland this afternoon along the favored Gulf and bay breezes, but will gradually run against mid and upper level ridging once N of I-10.

Moisture increases across much of the area on Monday and expect better coverage of showers and thunderstorms moving inland along the seabreeze. Best chance (40%) will cover those areas south of I-10 and chances falling to less than 20% around College Station. Rain chances will continue through the rest of the week as tropical moisture lingers and the weakness in the ridge continues across TX. By the end of the week a weak cold front will approach from the north and likely stall somewhere between Huntsville and Houston helping to keep elevated rain chances in place. Temperatures will run near seasonal mid August levels.

Solar Eclipse Monday:
A partial solar eclipse will occur across SE TX on Monday. The passage of the moon between the earth and sun will begin at 1146am Monday and a peak totality of 67% will occur at 116pm with the eclipse ending at 245pm. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be developing over the region during the 1100am to 300pm time period with cloud cover increasing especially after 100pm which may limit viewing of the eclipse.

Harvey
USAF mission yesterday afternoon determined that TS Harvey had degenerated into a tropical wave axis. Overnight a large explosion of very deep convection developed along this wave axis and it appeared that Harvey may have been in the process of organizing again. However the first pass of a USAF mission this afternoon has not found any evidence of a low level center with uniform easterly trades through the tropical wave axis. The aircraft has just arrived into the area and will conduct a search of any evidence of a low level center for the next several hours. Should a center be found advisories on Harvey would begin again. The current NHC Tropical Weather Outlook gives Harvey a 70% chance of regeneration over the next 5 days either in the western Caribbean Sea or the Bay of Campeche.
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Climo starting to work our our favor in CLL as far as rain. As Srain alluded, the ridge is starting to break down and an upper level disturbance in the GoM along with a trough and front will increase our rain chances during the week. Scattered showers becoming more commonplace as the school year begins - typical scenario. The weakness leaves us susceptible to tropical systems. NavGem has Harvey II moving into Mexico consistent with the ensemble models.

This could be the last 100°F degree day for the year?? - we'll see.

The seabreeze is kicking up this afternoon near the coast.

Safe eclipse viewing should be fine up here. Some broken and cumulus clouds around midday.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Slightly higher available moisture to work with today. Think
we`ll see some iso/sct precip start expanding in areal
coverage...with best coverage generally south of I-10 (seabreeze)
and also east of I-45 once we get temperatures up another couple
degrees. The strongest cells will be capable of producing some
20-35kt gusts. Precip will dissipate early this evening w/ the
loss of heating. VFR conditions will persist outside of
convection. Guidance suggests some spotty 1000-2500ft cigs a
possibility from 10-15z. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/
The late morning growth of a expansive cumulus field a signal
that the lower levels are still pretty moist. Areawide middle to
upper 70 surface dew points evidence to this fact and mid-late
August sun already warming the day into the middle 80s at 10 AM
with respective coastal heat indices in the 97 to 103 F range.
Will monitor for the potential that our coastal counties (possibly
2nd tier counties) may need a short fuse Heat Advisory latter
today but...as of now...communicating the health risks of this
prolonged heat via a Special Weather Statement.

Unsettled weather is on tap the next couple of days. Thicker
cloud cover and more frequent areawide precipitation as the region
falls along the western edge of broad cyclonic flow from an western
Gulf upper low.
Today`s slight to low end chance POPs will focus
on the southeastern forecast area/Galveston Bay. This is where the
the highest PW plume of near 2 inches resides and...with higher
PV coming around the northwestern periphery of the central Gulf
upper low...the southeastern CWA is where any afternoon convection
will likely fire. Moderate rain probabilities will spread westward
across the southern third of the region tomorrow. 31


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After my AWIPS2 CAVE session crashed with my completed AFD wiped
out before sending, here`s an abbreviated version of what I can
remember I wrote...

GOES 16 fog imagery has been picking up on some patchy fog mainly
west and southwest of Houston. Visibility has been ranging from
1SM to 6SM at most sites with KLBX varying the most which is
driving our aviation forecaster insane. The insanity should stop
later this morning once winds start to mix which won`t be that
much since there is hardly a pressure gradient.

Upper level pattern looks to be quasi-zonal across the northern
tier of states with a trough over the Great Lakes or New England
states. Pesky TUTT now in the E Gulf west of Florida as seen in
water vapor imagery. GOES 16 derived PW imagery shows a plume of 2
inch PW off the coast of LA. NAM/GFS show enough 925-700 mb flow
to advect this higher moisture over SE Texas by this evening. This
along with the sea breeze should support a few showers and storms
this afternoon with most activity east of I-45.

Monday to Wednesday there is really not a lot of change as the
TUTT moves over the NW Gulf lowering heights and allowing for
scattered showers and storms given the higher moisture.
Forecast
will keep 30-40 PoP for Monday/Tuesday. Wednesday will go with 30
PoPs as a frontal boundary begins to slide south from N TX. It
gets a boost from a short wave trough diving through the Great
Lakes on Thursday. Front should stall inland in line with the
GFS/ECMWF solutions. Front should maintain 30-40 PoP for the rest
of the week.
Upper ridge builds next weekend so could see a drying
trend from the rainfall potential.

Bottom line at the bottom...Will I be able to view the solar
eclipse on Monday? On the bright side we are not forecasting
overcast skies. But there is still the potential for
scattered/broken cloud decks to form due to developing convection
late morning into the early afternoon when viewing the eclipse.
Areas north of Houston will have the best viewing probabilities
but those chances will be less south of Houston where convection
may be developing.
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Here in Austin it reached 101 at Camp Mabry today, 99 at the airport. This was the 40th day this year when Mabry hit 100 or higher. I believe in 2013 we had 42 days and we should beat that. Of course the bar is set high with the 2011 nightmare (an incredible 90 days).

Hoping we finally see rain soon.
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DoctorMu
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Portastorm wrote:Here in Austin it reached 101 at Camp Mabry today, 99 at the airport. This was the 40th day this year when Mabry hit 100 or higher. I believe in 2013 we had 42 days and we should beat that. Of course the bar is set high with the 2011 nightmare (an incredible 90 days).

Hoping we finally see rain soon.
Close to 75 days of 100°F or over in College Station in 2011. Absolutely brutal.
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Came across this jewel on Twitter. Thought I would pass the good humor along... :lol:

Edit to add: after resizing the image and uploading it on here, the text may be a little difficult to read unless zoomed in real close. So I have attached the link to the Twitter account where it should be a bit clearer.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 2367315968
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Meanwhile, 06z model guidance continues the northern shift trend...
If remnants of Harvey stays relatively weak (open wave, TD or weak TS) don't think the pull northward will be as likely (at least not a TX threat). Next 36 hours will be telling as it scrapes Honduras before heading into Belize/Yucatan sometime on Tuesday. Nonetheless, even if Harvey can or can't pull itself together, should enhance our moisture chances heading into the weekend.
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The eclipse begins at 11:46AM Houston time reaching a maximum of 67% coverage at 1:16PM and ending at 2:45PM.

30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thundershowers this afternoon may interfere with viewing the eclipse.
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Main focus for the next several days will be the strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea (Ex Harvey) and an approaching cool front.

Upper level pattern is slowly transitioning from summer toward early fall over the region with weakening of the summer sub-tropical ridging which will allow a cool front to approach the area by the end of this week. At the same time this will also allow the tropical wave currently in the western Caribbean Sea to track into the southern Gulf of Mexico and turn toward the NW. Overall late week forecast will hinge on both of these features, but enough confidence is in place that a wet pattern will begin to evolve over the area by Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Tropical Wave (Ex Harvey):
Wave axis continues to move WNW into the western Caribbean Sea, but there has been little to no attempt at the system to try and reorganize. While the wave envelope has expanded to the N over the last 24 hours any weak low level circulation is along the SE flank of the wave and displaced east of the deeper convection. Within the next 24-30 hours the system will be moving inland over the southern Yucatan so the window for any near term development is shrinking. Once in the Gulf of Mexico there is nearly unanimous agreement across the global models that the system will begin to organize and form into a tropical cyclone once again. Track guidance has shifted northward over the last 24 hours due in part to a continued weakness in the ridge that is currently developing over TX and will linger into next weekend. Based on the forecasted steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and US Gulf coast by the middle of the week a tropical system in the southern Gulf would likely move NW toward the NE MX/ S TX coast. A stronger system (strong tropical storm or hurricane) would likely turn more NNW and track further northward. Given the current lack of organization and a defined center and the fact that the system will be crossing the Yucatan it is difficult to determine where a new center may form in the Gulf of Mexico and that would have implications on the track.

Late Week Frontal Boundary:
While the tropical system attempts to organize in the southern Gulf, a frontal boundary will drop southward into N TX by Wednesday and into SE TX Thursday and Friday and stall across the area. Moisture will be increasing ahead of this feature as noted by 1.8-2.0 inch PWS over the central Gulf of Mexico currently. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday into next weekend. As the boundary stalls, moisture from the tropical system will begin to spread northward and into the frontal zone which will only help to enhance rainfall. Will likely see moisture reach our far outer waters early Thursday and then spread toward the coast Friday depending on how organized the system may become.

Forecast confidence toward the end of the week into next weekend is low given the factors at play and the potential of a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system. Will let the flat to 2 foot seas ride for the offshore waters into Wednesday, but will likely need to start increasing both wind and seas for the late week and weekend periods if current trends hold with a tropical system approaching NE MX/S TX late Friday. Models not currently showing an overly large system, but large enough to potentially bring squalls into our coastal waters. Obviously any adjustment northward of the forecast track this week would bring more impacts into the middle and upper coast of TX.
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Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 4m4 minutes ago
Latest 0Z Calibrated GFS Ensembles bullish on development for #Harvey once the system pushes back over the GoMEX; Texas should monitor
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So would you want to be a Weather Forecaster in this complicated and complex synoptic weather pattern?

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08212017 04Z Day 3 to 5 Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
08212017 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
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