June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Looking E toward Galveston Bay this evening. Picked up .40" in W League City today which the yard enjoyed.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote:
ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle/upper level trough is positioned over the NW gulf
with the axis extending along 93W north of 24N. It is forecast
to move east at 15-20 kt across the northern half of the gulf.
Moderate southerly winds aloft are located on the east side of
the trough. A 1019 mb high is located over the northeast gulf
near 29N84W. A weak frontal boundary over the southern United
States drifted southward into the northern Gulf coast earlier
today with minimal convection either side of the front.

Storms forming along the trough. Shear is low, but not super favorable for development.



Image


Image




1.45 in total of rain for the afternoon. A big step in the right direction!
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Texaspirate11
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I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....
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tireman4
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769
FXUS64 KHGX 261129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
Patches of low cigs should lift by mid morning.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will get going first near the coast
this morning before spreading inland this afternoon. Showers and
storms should be more diurnally driven today and therefore should
diminish soon after sunset this evening. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier air has backdoored into northeast parts of the
region overnight with observed dewpoints currently in the mid to
upper 60s there. Closer to the coast, surface troffiness
continues and is providing a convergent zone for another round of
shra/tstms to develop. These will probably persist into the early
& mid morning hours then, like the past few days, eventually
transition inland later in the morning & afternoon with daytime
heating. Convective temps a bit higher, probably ~85-86F, so it
could take a little longer for inland expansion. Can`t rule out
some localized heavy downpours w/ PW`s near 2". Also could see
some gusty winds in the stronger cells given the profiles of some
of the fcst soundings.

Guidance doesn`t project the remnants of the disturbance now
situated across nw Tx to make its way into se Tx until late
tonight & Tue, but still worth keeping an eye on in case timing
and/or details change. Wx on Tues-Thurs doesn`t look a whole lot
different that the previous several days. Upper weakness should
linger across the area along with respectable amounts of moisture
to work with. We should start seeing a bit less overall precip
coverage going into the weekend as mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area. 47

MARINE...
Little change to overall marine forecast, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters through the
upcoming week. Light east to southeast flow is expected until mid
week, when winds and therefore seas increase again in response to a
developing surface low over the lee of the Rockies. Caution or
advisory flags may be required for this increase in winds/seas as
early as Wednesday.

Continued east to southeast flow this week will promote tide levels
around 1-1.5 feet above normal and strong rip currents. However,
tide levels should remain below critical thresholds for coastal
flooding issues. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 89 72 91 / 40 30 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 88 73 88 73 89 / 50 30 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 86 79 87 / 60 50 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...11
BlueJay
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Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....

Sigh. Me too.
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DoctorMu
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Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....
Cindy just blew me a kiss and gave us nothing.

Remnants of Bret were more generous.

Location IS everything. :mrgreen:
CrashTestDummy
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Indeed. We got nearly 4" last night.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Texaspirate11
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EUREKA! FINALLY got an amazing storm - 3 inches
and the most amazing lightning over the water..
We deserved it LOL - been waiting soooooo long.
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Today's Disco HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the coastal
areas and Gulf waters throughout this morning before spreading
inland this afternoon. Lower PWs (1.6-1.7) over the NE zones may
be a limiting factor for shower/tstorm development across that
area. Inland convection should diminish heading into this
evening/tonight, with the focus shifting to offshore once again
overnight tonight. The upper-level weakness currently over Texas
will gradually shift towards the N Gulf throughout the week this
week, allowing a similar diurnal pattern of showers and storms
over the waters overnight and inland during the day to persist
through Friday. By that time, the upper-level weakness will have
pushed off further into the Gulf with upper ridging settling in
over Texas in it`s wake. This ridging will pretty much put an end
to rain chances this weekend and into early next week with hotter
and drier conditions settling over the region.

High temperatures and therefore heat index values will be on the
rise this week, reaching the low/mid 90s (H.I. 98-105) by this
weekend and lingering through early next week. Although that seems
pretty warm, it`s actually only a smidge above normal for this
time of year. 11

&&

.MARINE...
ESE flow this morning looks to continue though may back slightly
going into the late morning hours. Upper troughing with mid level
circulation centered near San Antonio should drift west with low
level troughing to continue over the Upper Texas Coastal Waters and
coastal areas. Combination of the persistent upper support today and
low level convergence should maintain the presence of showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. High PW air and the above
will also increase the heavy rainfall potential which could lower
visibility over the coastal waters at times to 1 mile or less. Can`t
rule out a waterspout either this morning but not a very favorable
profile. Expect a slight lull to develop late afternoon over the
waters but then redevelop again tonight. Winds of 8-14 knots should
be dominate through Wednesday evening then increase to around 15 and
into the 15-20 knot range may need SCEC flags Thursday early .
morning and again Thursday night.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms near GLS-LBX-PSX early this morning
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Expect some patchy MVFR CIGS/VSBY
around CXO and possibly even IAH for a few hours between 09-13z
before CU begins to develop. Daytime heating and the very moist
airmass will likely lead to a proliferation of SHRA/TSRA across the
southern portions of SETX and will probably be adding TEMPOs to
IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX for SHRA/TSRA between 16-23z...and VCSH into the mid
evening hours though may go longer again tonight as it did earlier
this morning.
45

&&
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UPDATE HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Speed convergence courtesy of a coastal trough stretching from
near Brownsville along the Texas coast towards Galveston is
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along
the coast this morning, as well as elevated easterly flow across
the coastal waters. Main updates to the ongoing forecast were to
retrend PoPs based on radar and latest short term guidance trends,
with coastal activity spreading inland with heating by this
afternoon. Convective temperatures appear to be a few degrees
lower than yesterday (in the low to mid 80s) and inland onset is
expected to occur a few hours earlier today. Similar to the past
few days though, storm motions 5-10 MPH and precipitable water
values in excess of 1.8-2 inches across the southern two-thirds of
the forecast area will result in the threat for locally heavy
rain... especially for any storms that become anchored to outflow
boundaries from previous convection.

Also updated the marine forecast to account for the increasing
easterly flow (10-20 knots) in response to the coastal trough. Not
only will this promote an increased risk for rip currents along
Gulf-facing beaches, but may result in wave run-up along the
dunes or Highway 87 on Bolivar Peninsula at high tide late
tonight. Tide levels reached around 3.5 feet above MLLW last night
and similar levels are expected again tonight. As a result, have
issued a Beach Hazards Statement through tonight to cover both of
these hazards.

Will be closely evaluating the evolution of the coastal trough
tonight as preliminary 12Z guidance is showing a signal that the
trough axis may extend far enough into the coastal counties to
keep higher rain chances going into the overnight hours...
prolonging the threat for at least locally heavy rain.
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FLOOD ADVISORIES for FORT BEND & BRAZORIA:
CDT TUE JUN 27 2017 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 1152 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and additional thunderstorms are expected to move across the advisory area through early afternoon. This may result in additional urban and small stream flooding. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Needville and Damon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, I just noticed that trough. A lot of easterly flow here inland and scattered showers. Potent storms between Rosenburg and El Campo on Hwy 59.



I'll take it, overall. Drive safely.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Montgomery-Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Harris-Chambers-Wharton-
Fort Bend-Jackson-Matagorda-Brazoria-Galveston-
Including the cities of The Woodlands, Conroe, Willis, Liberty,
Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy,
Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Houston,
Pasadena, Katy, Tomball, Humble, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac,
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Edna, Bay City, Palacios, Pearland, Lake Jackson,
Alvin, Angleton, Freeport, League City, Texas City, Friendswood,
and Galveston
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...Tropical Funnel Clouds Possible across of Parts of Southeast
Texas Today...

A moist, tropical environment is in place across Southeast Texas
today and is favorable for producing tropical funnel clouds. Most
of these funnel clouds will be short-lived and will not reach the
ground. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter should one
of these funnel clouds reach the ground.

$$

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BlueJay
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YAY! We just enjoyed a brief rain shower!
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Katdaddy
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

TXC201-272145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0134.170627T1943Z-170627T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and additional
rainfall is occurring in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bellaire, West University Place, Hunters Creek Village, Piney Point
Village, Midtown Houston, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby
Area, Second Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Greater Eastwood, southern
Memorial Park, Greater Third Ward, Fourth Ward, University Place,
Astrodome Area, Macgregor, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Greater
Fifth Ward, Hedwig Village and Southside Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
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Katdaddy
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The unsettled tropical weather pattern continues for SE TX. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms offshore moving toward the coastal areas currently. Localized heavy rain will again be possible today especially along the coastal areas.
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tireman4
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611
FXUS64 KHGX 281448
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
948 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Morning soundings and PW imagery supportive of a tight moisture
gradient along the upper TX coast. Have trimmed PoPs a little up
north, but kept chance to likely rain chances across coastal
counties, and perhaps a tier inland. That being said convective
temps will be met area-wide so still some chances of development
across sern TX- just higher near the Gulf. All in all, current
forecast in pretty good shape.

Evans

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

MARINE... Mid level circulation helping to focus scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
morning. As the coastal trough meanders around and in from the
coast expect the storms to continue develop and spread inland.
During the afternoon hours may see a lull over the coastal waters
before it fires up again tonight. Winds this morning 15 to 20
knots and will keep a SCEC going through 7 am then let it come
down only to come back up in the eastern waters late this
afternoon as gradient tightens back up. Elevated tide levels will
continue with the persistent coastal troughing. Beach hazard
statement extended through 7 pm but will likely need extending
through tonight with increase in winds. Rip current stronger today
and probably begin to see some overwash on 87 near High Island
during the high tide this afternoon with these same conditions
tonight and Thursday. For what it is worth the ARW core and TT-WRF
both focus showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
afternoon/tonight with the potential for stronger winds. Will
need to keep an eye on future runs for some consistency and if so
may warrant bumping up winds 5-15 knots. 45

Aviation... Tough forecast today. VLIFR at UTS this morning with
BKN001 and showers streaming into the the coastal areas. How far
the showers make it inland this morning is a tough call. Expecting
as the nocturnal elevated winds relax may see a break focusing
showers closer to the coast then jumping inland with a little
heating. GFS soundings look to be too dry in the LL at 12z so have
trended toward NMM/NAM/HRRR solutions which show an increase in
coverage around 15z for SGR/LVJ/HOU/LBX areas then very slowly
expanding northward in the afternoon and clearing near the coast.
Overnight expect to see SHRA redevelop over the waters and spread
inland along the length of the coast around 06-08z. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 91 77 92 / 20 10 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 87 75 89 78 90 / 50 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 83 79 87 82 88 / 70 50 70 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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Models look pretty high and dry right now until the middle of July: Euro, GRS, CMC, ensembles. We'll see. :|
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Katdaddy
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving inland across the coastal counties this morning with some isolated heavy rainfall. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop further inland with the heating of the day before weakening during the evening. SE TX dries out and temps rise this weekend through 4th of July.
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srainhoutx
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Watch out along the Coastal tier of Counties for Flooding issues...
06292017 mcd0409.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0409
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291125Z - 291630Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING
PROPAGATION VECTORS AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR RATES OVER 2.5"/HR POSE
LIKELY FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER NE COASTAL TX INTO SW/SOUTH CENTRAL
LA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL STACKED ELONGATED TROF LIES COINCIDENT WITH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX COAST TOWARD APEX OF THE TROF/POSSIBLE
CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 7-5H LOW JUST NORTH OF LCH. STRONG SLY
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW (20+KTS) AIDED BY FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE HAS
SPARKED A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO COOL WITH
PURCOLLATING OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN EIR OF GOES-16 10.3 UM IR
WINDOW. VEERING TO SWLY FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER/WEAK INVERSION
NEAR 850MB PARALLEL TO THE TX COASTLINE SUPPORTS SOLID INFLOW/MUST
FLUX TO CELL AND WITH HIGHLY ELONGATED TROF THAT IS STACKED...CELL
MOTIONS ARE NEAR ZERO SUPPORTING C-VECTORS WITH SW PROPAGATION
FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
REPEAT/BACKBUILDING CYCLING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SHORT BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPDRAFT DEPTH
SUPPORTS TPWS AOA 2.0" AND WITH FLUX MAY REACH RATES OF 2.5"/HR OR
GREATER. THIS IS THE CASE OF STATIONARY CELL LOCATED CALCASIEU
PARISH WHICH WOULD HAVE THE LEAST STEERING FLOW GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
THE APEX/CENTER OF THE TROF. WITH THE BACKBUILDING AND SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY AND IT IS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE FOR EXTREME
RAINFALL TOTALS PARTICLULARLY OVER SW LA TO COMPILE WITH 4-6"
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY THE TRENDS IN THE
RAP/HRRR/HRRRV3. STILL THE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL TX COAST THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE TROF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
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