June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

The sun is peeking out here in Stafford. Rain coverage this morning was good. A very nice soaking. We had periods of heavier rain, but most of it was just a steady rainfall. Lawn and plants are happy.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

jasons wrote:It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
Glad you got some rain Jason! Looking cloudy and gloomy here now.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

A little night time coastal action firing up.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

mckinne63 wrote:
jasons wrote:It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
Glad you got some rain Jason! Looking cloudy and gloomy here now.
8-) Well done.


We had 0.25 in IMBY this morning. Only 0.41 inches of precip in the last 20 days. Hoping for more this afternoon or Tuesday.


Now most of the rain is to our West. First east for Cindy, then north and south yesterday (only had a trace), and now west of us. :? :cry:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA and TSRA are developing near the southern
terminals (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS) early this afternoon, with
activity expected to spread into the northern terminals with
continued heating. IFR to MVFR conditions are possible in
convection from locally heavy rain, but VFR conditions are
expected through the end of the TAF period. Cloud debris from
storms today may provide enough sky cover overnight to limit fog
development, but if skies do clear... MVFR visibilities will be
possible early to mid-morning Monday.

Will have to monitor trends for adjustments in timing of
TSRA/SHRA at terminals and have low confidence in trends beyond 6
hours given the weak flow aloft and presence of several outflow
boundaries across Southeast Texas. Expect most activity to wane
this evening with loss of daytime heating, but energy from a mid-
level disturbance shearing out across the region may provide
enough lift to keep SHRA going overnight... or start it earlier
than advertised in the 25/18Z TAF package (sometime between 06-12Z
Monday). Another round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA is
expected during the day Monday. Otherwise, light northeast to east
winds 5-10 knots are expected to prevail but variable directions
are possible near convection or any boundaries that move across
the terminals.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Messy surface pattern this morning and subsequent forecast for
this afternoon. Primary surface cold front extends across sern TX
from srn LA into nrn Mexico. Boundary is masked in sections from
numerousmesoscale boundaries resulting from earlier and ongoing
moist convection. In addition, several boundaries remain
convectively active just off the coast which should push inland
through the late morning/early afternoon. A persistent cluster of
showers/tstms near Lake Livingston should continue to gradually
diminish late this morning, while showers increase to the south
and west of this activity. Both CRP and LCH soundings indicate
convective temps around 85-86F suggesting showers and tstms will
become increase/develop with continued heating across most of the
region, focused along surface boundaries. With little or no
steering flow and abundant moisture /PWs near 2"/, we expect heavy
downpours with any stronger cores.

Have bumped PoPs a little and tweaked grids to better match
ongoing conditions. Otherwise, current forecast on track.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 89 72 90 72 / 30 40 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 73 88 73 89 73 / 30 50 20 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 87 78 87 79 / 30 30 30 40 40
mckinne63
Posts: 553
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 4:50 pm
Location: Stafford, TX
Contact:

Was a noisy night here in Stafford. Not sure how much rain we actually got, but heard lots of thunder. We do need to drain the pool today after the rains the last few days. Plants look very happy. Starting to cloud up a bit here. Wondering if the showers left in the Gulf are going to push North.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Looks like an UL trough in the Bay of Campeche. Maybe some upper level circulation on the east end.


Not much on the WU discussion. Upper level high forming off the west coast of FL:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

Caribbean Sea...
Broad cyclonic turning aloft covers the Caribbean west of about
76w with broad anticyclonic flow aloft located over the eastern
half of the Caribbean.
Dense overcast layered clouds with
numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are located over
Panama and continue northward to 13n between 75w and 82w in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Refer to the
tropical waves section for details about the tropical wave over
the Lesser Antilles.


Dora is lurking off the Mexican coast on the EPAC side:

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 15.7N 103.0W at 25/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE and 60 nm NW
semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 17N between 99W and
105W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track
while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Monday before
starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves over
cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Dora is expected
to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC for more details on the track and intensity of Dora, and
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details on marine impacts of Dora.




Dora is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, but she's headed out to sea. No effect on us.

Image
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle/upper level trough is positioned over the NW gulf
with the axis extending along 93W north of 24N. It is forecast
to move east at 15-20 kt across the northern half of the gulf.
Moderate southerly winds aloft are located on the east side of
the trough. A 1019 mb high is located over the northeast gulf
near 29N84W. A weak frontal boundary over the southern United
States drifted southward into the northern Gulf coast earlier
today with minimal convection either side of the front.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

We finally struck gold with a shower along the stalled front. I'm probably on of the vast minority that smiles in the summer when our DirecTV dish goes out...because that means a T-storm with some height and copious rain.

We've had possibly over an inch now. Sprinklers off and I'll check to scoreboard later this evening IMBY.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Based off radar trends and GOES 16 visible, it looks like the so
called frontal boundary has moved to around a line from KCLL to
KIAH to KBPT. Convection may linger around for another 1-2 hours
so a few terminals may be impacted, namely KIAH with a strong
shower that produced a 23 knot wind gust but no lightning. Will
keep VCTS in TAF for next hour. Otherwise most of the convection
is in between terminals so may need to amend TAFs should
convection develop closer to the terminals.

I think the overnight period will be quiet and more stable than
the last couple of nights in which convection has developed around
09Z or after. So again will go convection free with TAFs until
late morning when day time heating will be needed to get storms
going along any existing boundaries. There was a plethora of
boundaries this afternoon so look for similar activity to form
tomorrow. Convective allowing models seem to hit the areas SW of
Houston mid morning and then the rest of the area late morning
into early afternoon.

For now do not see any MVFR conditions forming overnight but
there could be some patchy fog should clouds clear enough with
the calm winds.

Overpeck
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Looking E toward Galveston Bay this evening. Picked up .40" in W League City today which the yard enjoyed.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2017-06-25 at 8.31.09 PM.png
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Ptarmigan wrote:
ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle/upper level trough is positioned over the NW gulf
with the axis extending along 93W north of 24N. It is forecast
to move east at 15-20 kt across the northern half of the gulf.
Moderate southerly winds aloft are located on the east side of
the trough. A 1019 mb high is located over the northeast gulf
near 29N84W. A weak frontal boundary over the southern United
States drifted southward into the northern Gulf coast earlier
today with minimal convection either side of the front.

Storms forming along the trough. Shear is low, but not super favorable for development.



Image


Image




1.45 in total of rain for the afternoon. A big step in the right direction!
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

769
FXUS64 KHGX 261129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
Patches of low cigs should lift by mid morning.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will get going first near the coast
this morning before spreading inland this afternoon. Showers and
storms should be more diurnally driven today and therefore should
diminish soon after sunset this evening. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier air has backdoored into northeast parts of the
region overnight with observed dewpoints currently in the mid to
upper 60s there. Closer to the coast, surface troffiness
continues and is providing a convergent zone for another round of
shra/tstms to develop. These will probably persist into the early
& mid morning hours then, like the past few days, eventually
transition inland later in the morning & afternoon with daytime
heating. Convective temps a bit higher, probably ~85-86F, so it
could take a little longer for inland expansion. Can`t rule out
some localized heavy downpours w/ PW`s near 2". Also could see
some gusty winds in the stronger cells given the profiles of some
of the fcst soundings.

Guidance doesn`t project the remnants of the disturbance now
situated across nw Tx to make its way into se Tx until late
tonight & Tue, but still worth keeping an eye on in case timing
and/or details change. Wx on Tues-Thurs doesn`t look a whole lot
different that the previous several days. Upper weakness should
linger across the area along with respectable amounts of moisture
to work with. We should start seeing a bit less overall precip
coverage going into the weekend as mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area. 47

MARINE...
Little change to overall marine forecast, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters through the
upcoming week. Light east to southeast flow is expected until mid
week, when winds and therefore seas increase again in response to a
developing surface low over the lee of the Rockies. Caution or
advisory flags may be required for this increase in winds/seas as
early as Wednesday.

Continued east to southeast flow this week will promote tide levels
around 1-1.5 feet above normal and strong rip currents. However,
tide levels should remain below critical thresholds for coastal
flooding issues. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 89 72 91 / 40 30 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 88 73 88 73 89 / 50 30 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 86 79 87 / 60 50 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...11
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....

Sigh. Me too.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....
Cindy just blew me a kiss and gave us nothing.

Remnants of Bret were more generous.

Location IS everything. :mrgreen:
CrashTestDummy
Posts: 187
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:44 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:

Indeed. We got nearly 4" last night.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

EUREKA! FINALLY got an amazing storm - 3 inches
and the most amazing lightning over the water..
We deserved it LOL - been waiting soooooo long.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Today's Disco HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the coastal
areas and Gulf waters throughout this morning before spreading
inland this afternoon. Lower PWs (1.6-1.7) over the NE zones may
be a limiting factor for shower/tstorm development across that
area. Inland convection should diminish heading into this
evening/tonight, with the focus shifting to offshore once again
overnight tonight. The upper-level weakness currently over Texas
will gradually shift towards the N Gulf throughout the week this
week, allowing a similar diurnal pattern of showers and storms
over the waters overnight and inland during the day to persist
through Friday. By that time, the upper-level weakness will have
pushed off further into the Gulf with upper ridging settling in
over Texas in it`s wake. This ridging will pretty much put an end
to rain chances this weekend and into early next week with hotter
and drier conditions settling over the region.

High temperatures and therefore heat index values will be on the
rise this week, reaching the low/mid 90s (H.I. 98-105) by this
weekend and lingering through early next week. Although that seems
pretty warm, it`s actually only a smidge above normal for this
time of year. 11

&&

.MARINE...
ESE flow this morning looks to continue though may back slightly
going into the late morning hours. Upper troughing with mid level
circulation centered near San Antonio should drift west with low
level troughing to continue over the Upper Texas Coastal Waters and
coastal areas. Combination of the persistent upper support today and
low level convergence should maintain the presence of showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. High PW air and the above
will also increase the heavy rainfall potential which could lower
visibility over the coastal waters at times to 1 mile or less. Can`t
rule out a waterspout either this morning but not a very favorable
profile. Expect a slight lull to develop late afternoon over the
waters but then redevelop again tonight. Winds of 8-14 knots should
be dominate through Wednesday evening then increase to around 15 and
into the 15-20 knot range may need SCEC flags Thursday early .
morning and again Thursday night.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms near GLS-LBX-PSX early this morning
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Expect some patchy MVFR CIGS/VSBY
around CXO and possibly even IAH for a few hours between 09-13z
before CU begins to develop. Daytime heating and the very moist
airmass will likely lead to a proliferation of SHRA/TSRA across the
southern portions of SETX and will probably be adding TEMPOs to
IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX for SHRA/TSRA between 16-23z...and VCSH into the mid
evening hours though may go longer again tonight as it did earlier
this morning.
45

&&
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

UPDATE HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Speed convergence courtesy of a coastal trough stretching from
near Brownsville along the Texas coast towards Galveston is
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along
the coast this morning, as well as elevated easterly flow across
the coastal waters. Main updates to the ongoing forecast were to
retrend PoPs based on radar and latest short term guidance trends,
with coastal activity spreading inland with heating by this
afternoon. Convective temperatures appear to be a few degrees
lower than yesterday (in the low to mid 80s) and inland onset is
expected to occur a few hours earlier today. Similar to the past
few days though, storm motions 5-10 MPH and precipitable water
values in excess of 1.8-2 inches across the southern two-thirds of
the forecast area will result in the threat for locally heavy
rain... especially for any storms that become anchored to outflow
boundaries from previous convection.

Also updated the marine forecast to account for the increasing
easterly flow (10-20 knots) in response to the coastal trough. Not
only will this promote an increased risk for rip currents along
Gulf-facing beaches, but may result in wave run-up along the
dunes or Highway 87 on Bolivar Peninsula at high tide late
tonight. Tide levels reached around 3.5 feet above MLLW last night
and similar levels are expected again tonight. As a result, have
issued a Beach Hazards Statement through tonight to cover both of
these hazards.

Will be closely evaluating the evolution of the coastal trough
tonight as preliminary 12Z guidance is showing a signal that the
trough axis may extend far enough into the coastal counties to
keep higher rain chances going into the overnight hours...
prolonging the threat for at least locally heavy rain.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Post Reply
  • Information