June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

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srainhoutx
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1118 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Colorado TX-Wharton TX-Jackson TX-
1118 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
South central Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Jackson County in south central Texas...

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1116 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. One to three inches of rain have fallen, and
storms are continuing to develop over this region.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
El Campo, Wharton, Ganado, Pierce, Boling-Iago, Cordele, Nada,
Egypt, Louise and Hungerford.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Texaspirate11
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High Water reported at these locations
Turnarounddontdrown

Last updated: 11:06 a.m. Saturday, June 24, 2017

IH-69 Southbound At FM-762/THOMPSON RD in Fort Bend County (exit ramp)

IH-610 EAST LOOP Northbound At IH-10 EAST (entrance ramp)

IH-610 NORTH LOOP Westbound At IH-45 NORTH (entrance ramp)

BELTWAY 8-EAST Northbound After SPENCER HWY (3 frontage road lanes)

BELTWAY 8-EAST Southbound Before SPENCER HWY

EAST SAM HOUSTON TOLLWAY Northbound After SPENCER HWY (all mainlanes)

EAST SAM HOUSTON TOLLWAY Southbound At SPENCER HWY (all mainlanes)

IH-10 EAST Westbound At HOLLAND AVE/JOHN RALSTON RD
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mckinne63
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DoctorMu wrote:
jasons wrote:So far I've had 2.93".

Also - I had a high of 101 yesterday.
Liquid Gold.



Everyone stay safe. Beltway 8 and 610 are flooded. Shopping center parking lots are flooded on the westside. Stay home if you can!
Guess we better stay on our side of town. Have some errands to run.
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Katdaddy
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The highest rainfall total so far is 6.28” at Lake Houston.
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DoctorMu
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Accumulations are mounting:

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... x&loop=yes


A line from Huntsville is expanding east, we may as Srain alluded get a piece of the pie soon.
cisa
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Just a curious question. What are the odds of this stalled front drifting into GOM and causing a problem? Like an Alicia thing?
No rain, no rainbows.
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srainhoutx
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cisa wrote:Just a curious question. What are the odds of this stalled front drifting into GOM and causing a problem? Like an Alicia thing?
Doesn't look like any tropical mischief...for now. Hemispheric Patterns may be a bit more conducive for tropical development just beyond the 4th of July Holiday timeframe. But is for a different Topic.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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06242017 mcd0394.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0394
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA...SOUTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241952Z - 242352Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH
RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED EXPANDING
DEEP CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THE CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT INTO
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF IT AND IS BEING
FOCUSED NEAR A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT.
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF
THE ONGOING CONVECTION, AND THIS UNSTABLE INFLOW TOWARDS THE FRONT
WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES. THERE ARE ALSO INTERSECTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION.

A RIBBON OF HIGH PWS, ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES PER THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, IS POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS IS FACILITATING RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES FOR
HEAVIER RATES, WHICH MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME
FRAME, WITH AMOUNTS LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES BY 00Z. THIS SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION THAN THE OPERATIONAL HRRR,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE WITH ITS AMOUNTS. SOME FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THESE TYPES OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAIN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Update 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests and 1 to 2 inches may be possible into Tuesday. We'll need to watch Monday as a weak surface trough attempts to organize near Brownsville which may increase rainfall chances and that pesky frontal boundary as well as any meso/microoscale features that cannot be predicted beyond 3 to 5 hours pop up. I just emptied .92 of an inch out of the rain bucket which certainly beat the .38 of an inch I received for the Cindy 'event'. It is also 80F...I hit 100F yesterday, so the rainfall and cloud cover is appreciated.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BlueJay
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No rain for us.
Zip. Zero. Zilch.
mckinne63
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The sun is peeking out here in Stafford. Rain coverage this morning was good. A very nice soaking. We had periods of heavier rain, but most of it was just a steady rainfall. Lawn and plants are happy.
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jasons2k
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It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
mckinne63
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jasons wrote:It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
Glad you got some rain Jason! Looking cloudy and gloomy here now.
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Rip76
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A little night time coastal action firing up.
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DoctorMu
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mckinne63 wrote:
jasons wrote:It's peeking out here too, and it sure is muggy. Total rain was 3.56" and I am very happy!
Glad you got some rain Jason! Looking cloudy and gloomy here now.
8-) Well done.


We had 0.25 in IMBY this morning. Only 0.41 inches of precip in the last 20 days. Hoping for more this afternoon or Tuesday.


Now most of the rain is to our West. First east for Cindy, then north and south yesterday (only had a trace), and now west of us. :? :cry:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA and TSRA are developing near the southern
terminals (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS) early this afternoon, with
activity expected to spread into the northern terminals with
continued heating. IFR to MVFR conditions are possible in
convection from locally heavy rain, but VFR conditions are
expected through the end of the TAF period. Cloud debris from
storms today may provide enough sky cover overnight to limit fog
development, but if skies do clear... MVFR visibilities will be
possible early to mid-morning Monday.

Will have to monitor trends for adjustments in timing of
TSRA/SHRA at terminals and have low confidence in trends beyond 6
hours given the weak flow aloft and presence of several outflow
boundaries across Southeast Texas. Expect most activity to wane
this evening with loss of daytime heating, but energy from a mid-
level disturbance shearing out across the region may provide
enough lift to keep SHRA going overnight... or start it earlier
than advertised in the 25/18Z TAF package (sometime between 06-12Z
Monday). Another round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA is
expected during the day Monday. Otherwise, light northeast to east
winds 5-10 knots are expected to prevail but variable directions
are possible near convection or any boundaries that move across
the terminals.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Messy surface pattern this morning and subsequent forecast for
this afternoon. Primary surface cold front extends across sern TX
from srn LA into nrn Mexico. Boundary is masked in sections from
numerousmesoscale boundaries resulting from earlier and ongoing
moist convection. In addition, several boundaries remain
convectively active just off the coast which should push inland
through the late morning/early afternoon. A persistent cluster of
showers/tstms near Lake Livingston should continue to gradually
diminish late this morning, while showers increase to the south
and west of this activity. Both CRP and LCH soundings indicate
convective temps around 85-86F suggesting showers and tstms will
become increase/develop with continued heating across most of the
region, focused along surface boundaries. With little or no
steering flow and abundant moisture /PWs near 2"/, we expect heavy
downpours with any stronger cores.

Have bumped PoPs a little and tweaked grids to better match
ongoing conditions. Otherwise, current forecast on track.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 89 72 90 72 / 30 40 20 30 20
Houston (IAH) 73 88 73 89 73 / 30 50 20 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 87 78 87 79 / 30 30 30 40 40
mckinne63
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Was a noisy night here in Stafford. Not sure how much rain we actually got, but heard lots of thunder. We do need to drain the pool today after the rains the last few days. Plants look very happy. Starting to cloud up a bit here. Wondering if the showers left in the Gulf are going to push North.
ticka1
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is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
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DoctorMu
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ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Looks like an UL trough in the Bay of Campeche. Maybe some upper level circulation on the east end.


Not much on the WU discussion. Upper level high forming off the west coast of FL:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

Caribbean Sea...
Broad cyclonic turning aloft covers the Caribbean west of about
76w with broad anticyclonic flow aloft located over the eastern
half of the Caribbean.
Dense overcast layered clouds with
numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are located over
Panama and continue northward to 13n between 75w and 82w in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Refer to the
tropical waves section for details about the tropical wave over
the Lesser Antilles.


Dora is lurking off the Mexican coast on the EPAC side:

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 15.7N 103.0W at 25/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE and 60 nm NW
semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 17N between 99W and
105W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track
while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength Monday before
starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves over
cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Dora is expected
to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC for more details on the track and intensity of Dora, and
the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC for more details on marine impacts of Dora.




Dora is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, but she's headed out to sea. No effect on us.

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Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Jun 25, 2017 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle/upper level trough is positioned over the NW gulf
with the axis extending along 93W north of 24N. It is forecast
to move east at 15-20 kt across the northern half of the gulf.
Moderate southerly winds aloft are located on the east side of
the trough. A 1019 mb high is located over the northeast gulf
near 29N84W. A weak frontal boundary over the southern United
States drifted southward into the northern Gulf coast earlier
today with minimal convection either side of the front.
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DoctorMu
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We finally struck gold with a shower along the stalled front. I'm probably on of the vast minority that smiles in the summer when our DirecTV dish goes out...because that means a T-storm with some height and copious rain.

We've had possibly over an inch now. Sprinklers off and I'll check to scoreboard later this evening IMBY.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Based off radar trends and GOES 16 visible, it looks like the so
called frontal boundary has moved to around a line from KCLL to
KIAH to KBPT. Convection may linger around for another 1-2 hours
so a few terminals may be impacted, namely KIAH with a strong
shower that produced a 23 knot wind gust but no lightning. Will
keep VCTS in TAF for next hour. Otherwise most of the convection
is in between terminals so may need to amend TAFs should
convection develop closer to the terminals.

I think the overnight period will be quiet and more stable than
the last couple of nights in which convection has developed around
09Z or after. So again will go convection free with TAFs until
late morning when day time heating will be needed to get storms
going along any existing boundaries. There was a plethora of
boundaries this afternoon so look for similar activity to form
tomorrow. Convective allowing models seem to hit the areas SW of
Houston mid morning and then the rest of the area late morning
into early afternoon.

For now do not see any MVFR conditions forming overnight but
there could be some patchy fog should clouds clear enough with
the calm winds.

Overpeck
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