June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[tireman4]

I realize looks can be deceiving when viewing satellite loops on these kinds of systems, but after reviewing the 48-image GOES 16 visible satellite of the Gulf ... it doesn't look like this thing is moving right now. At all.

Agreed Porta. I think it is stationary.

[Texaspirate11]

I realize looks can be deceiving when viewing satellite loops on these kinds of systems, but after reviewing the 48-image GOES 16 visible satellite of the Gulf ... it doesn't look like this thing is moving right now. At all.

Agreed Porta. I think it is stationary.

That's what scares me the most - these storms with copious amounts of rain with no wind behind it ala Allison....

[davidiowx]

We have Cindy:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...2

[tireman4]

We were right Porta, she is stationary.

[tireman4]

So, here is a question for the pro mets (Srain, Brooks, Andrew, Wxman 57, David), being stationary....

1. You expected this and then it would traverse NW, W and then NE
2. Surprise
3. Not sure what to think

[sau27]

NHC really expanded the wind field on the latest advisory. Interesting, as it doesn't look like it has wrapped up all that much yet.

[tireman4]

Here is the estimated arrival time of Cindy

[srainhoutx]

Inspecting Water Vapor Imagery, we can see the Upper Low along the Texas Coast moving slowly out and the clouds over Louisiana associated with Cindy's Outflow expanding West toward E/SE Texas. If we look to West Texas, we can see the Eastern periphery of the SW Heat Ridge slowly edging back to the West toward Arizona. This stall may be related to that Upper Low and I suspect a NW or WNW motion will resume later today into tonight. If you recall the ECMWF suggested the Upper Low would move out of the way and a Westward motion could occur along the Central/SW Louisiana Coast prior to turning North along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast and moving inland. We have great satellite tools that assist in visually seeing what is happening.

[mcheer23]

EURO just in. Galveston. 992mb

[jasons2k]

NVM - you can delete this post

[don]

12z Euro shows VERY heavy rain across metro Houston and surrounding counties it shows rainfall amounts of 5-12 inches along and south of I-10

[srainhoutx]

12Z GEFS Ensemble members are suggesting a possible Upper Texas Coast solution.

[tireman4]

I think this will be an interesting afternoon and into the night for the fine folks at the NHC. Lots of questions still to be answered.

[kayci]

Great, just great.... just when I booked reservations at Fentress, TX @ Leisure campground for the weekend.... just my luck.

[jasons2k]

12Z GEFS Ensemble members are suggesting a possible Upper Texas Coast solution.

That's a significant shift.

[tireman4]

Great, just great.... just when I booked reservations at Fentress, TX @ Leisure campground for the weekend.... just my luck.

This should be ( and correct me if I am wrong) gone by the weekend...we have a swim meet in the Woodlands..outside..( well, we are outside, the swimmers are inside)

[don]

The Euro is also stronger and brings the storm through Galveston bay at 990mb's and shows 10 meter winds in Houston gusting to 50 knots and 10 meter winds along the coast gusting to over 60 knots fwiw.

[TexasBreeze]

Now it is starting to get to the point of throwing out modeling and just watch satellite trends and track the features that Srain mentioned in analysis.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

USAF mission has found that Cindy has developed enough organization to be declared a tropical storm.

Additionally, the wind field has been significantly expanded in all directions based on both the USAF data and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Also the USAF mission has determined that Cindy has stalled across the central Gulf and is slowly become more like a true tropical cyclone.

Adjustments to the watches and warnings may be required later this afternoon based on the wind field being found over the Gulf of Mexico.

[tireman4]

Things are getting curiouser and curiouser....stay tuned to all public outlets (TV, NOAA Weather Radio and online and the KHOU Weatherboard).