June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

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Andrew
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12z EURO parallel shows a middle Texas landfall as TS FWIW. Key here is a slower progression, allowing for a larger weakness to form along the Texas coastline.
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wxman57
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Cromagnum wrote:It needs to park somewhere where we can catch up on rain. My yard is already trying to die again.
Careful what you wish for. This type of system could produce over 20" of rain in some areas.
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Andrew wrote:12z EURO parallel shows a middle Texas landfall as TS FWIW. Key here is a slower progression, allowing for a larger weakness to form along the Texas coastline.
when will this be in the GOM? what timeframe
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Question - if the GOM is cooler than in past years, how would this affect the potential storm coming in?
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Very complex and complicated forecast continues to be the theme this morning regarding the area of disturbed weather in the SW and Western Caribbean as well as across Central America.

Image

The overnight Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities did increase to near 100% near Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in the NW Caribbean over the next 120 hours. You can see probabilities also increased near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific which suggests the very broad nature of the monsoonal gyre.
tmp_4853-genprob.4enscon.2017061600.altg.000_1201165906171.png
Another fly in the ointment is the development of a cool cored upper shear axis or Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough meandering West across the Central and Western Gulf beginning this week.

tmp_4853-ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_4319349396.png
Currently there is a NW flow aloft across Texas extending Eastward across the Central Gulf Coast. That NW flow aloft extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico confining all the tropical showers and scattered heavy tropical thunderstorms across Central America and the Western Caribbean.

Meanwhile it will be hot and dry this weekend, so stay hydrated!
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srainhoutx
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Check out our Hurricane Central Area for newly designated INVEST 92L in the Eastern Atlantic WSW of the Cape Verde Islands.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2162
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From the HGX AFD this morning.


000
FXUS64 KHGX 161132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR with a possible hour or two (after sunrise) of MVFR ceilings.
As high pressure asserts its influence across the region an
analog approach of VFR and southerly winds seems the way to go. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Debris clouds are spreading across Southeast Texas early this morning
with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and around 80 at
the coast. Slightly above normal temperatures (both highs and lows)
will persist as we close out the week and will continue on through
the upcoming weekend as the area remains on the eastern fringes of
a mid/upper level high. Late morning through afternoon heat index
values for at least the next several days will be topping out
generally in a 102 to 106 range, and all heat safety precautions
should continue to be taken. NHC`s most recent Tropical Weather
Outlook continues to have a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation
in/around the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. Rising Gulf of
Mexico moisture levels associated with this system will gradually
work its way westward across the Gulf as the week progresses but
will be fighting our area`s dry and subsident mid/upper level
ridge, so for now we`ll be carrying rain chances of 10% to 20% for
much of the week. Continue to monitor the latest NHC forecasts on
the potential Gulf system. 42


&&

MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds over average 2 to 3 foot seas will
continue through the weekend...brief periods of caution wind
magnitudes during the overnight hours. An approaching and stalling
inland frontal boundary Monday will back winds more easterly early
next week. Light to moderate east to northeast winds will persist
through mid-week. Much uncertainty concerning the tropics late next
week so have just gradually strengthened southeasterlies and picked
up average seas into the 3 to 5 foot range from Thursday into
Saturday. 31

&&

CLIMATE...
Yesterday`s 95 degree high temperature at IAH was their first 95 of
the year. Last year`s first 95 also occurred on June 15th. On average
(according to Houston area records dating back to 1889), June 13th
is the first date that the area normally reaches the 95 degree mark.
In the past, the earliest this value has been reached was on March
30th (1946) and the latest was on August 8th (1899). 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

NHC has raised the chances for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico to 60% and with the wave (92L) in the open Atlantic to 40%

Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system over the weekend.

Gulf of Mexico System:

Complex and complicated weather pattern over the Western Caribbean Sea and central America may eventually give rise to a broad area of lowering pressures over the Yucatan area this weekend. Visible and IR images across the SW/W Caribbean Sea show a significant increase in deep convection over the last 24 hours in association with the monsoon trough lifting slightly northward and a trade wind surge arriving into the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough currently across the Gulf of Mexico is imparting 15-25kts of westerly shear across the NW Caribbean Sea, but this shear will gradually subside this weekend lending more favorable conditions aloft. Thus far most of the deep convection has remained over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea, but forecast models suggest an actual surface low will develop over a fairly large area near the Yucatan this weekend.

Global forecast models have become separated into two track camps next week with the ECMWF, UKMET, and many of the GFS ensembles showing a WNW track of a broad and disorganized surface low into the western Gulf of Mexico, while the CMC, NAVGEM, and GFS Para shows a much stronger system turning quickly northward out of the SE Gulf of Mexico and heading for the AL/FL panhandle. The GFS operational model shows little to no development in favor of a stretched out trough.

Will follow closer to the weaker and more westward solution given in the ECMWF given the sprawling nature of the system currently and the fact that such large systems usually do not develop has quickly as the CMC and GFS Para are suggesting. Additionally the eastern track models are showing the system developing from a lobe of energy rotating around the mean broad trough circulation…and while possible…this seems less likely.

Will continue to bring a large surface low off the Yucatan coast late this weekend and into the SC Gulf of Mexico early next week where the formation of a tropical depression or storm is now likely. Models continue to struggle with the upper air steering pattern over the southern US next week with only slight variations in the position of the upper level sub-tropical ridges and weaknesses in the ridge resulting in widely varying track solutions. Will continue to follow close to the ECMWF track of a large disorganized system toward NE MX/S TX by the middle to end of next week.

Impacts:
It is still too early to be certain of what, if any impacts this system may bring to the TX coast, but it is likely that the feature will exhibit a very large area of adverse conditions to the north and east of the broad surface center with tropical storm conditions likely extending hundreds of miles to the northeast. Given the large expected size…will go ahead and bump up seas into the 3-4 foot range starting on Wednesday, but not go any higher just yet. Will probably need to start bumping tides up some also for the mid to late week period with increasing seas and favorable fetch across the northern and central Gulf. Will cap them at total water levels rise of 1.0-1.5 feet for now which would be not that much higher than the last several weeks. Critical flood thresholds along the coast are around 4.5 ft. Will keep rain chances trimmed back pretty low for now as it will be a battle between the upper ridge over the SW expanding into TX and the surge of tropical moisture on the eastern flank of the system aimed toward TX. May end up with a very strong gradient of excessive rainfall somewhere along the TX coast by late next week.

Uncertainty in impacts is high until the system forms and more confidence in a track solution emerges.

Atlantic Wave (92L):

Interest in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Tropical wave across the central deep tropical Atlantic Ocean roughly 900 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized. Satellite images show showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight and a 1011mb surface low appears to be embedded with the wave axis. Forecast models are all over the place with this feature with some bringing a full blown hurricane to the Windward Islands in 96 hours while other show no development at all. It would be extremely rare for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop east of the Caribbean Sea this early in the season with records showing only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane having formed this far east since 1851. Will side with the weaker model solutions as those have strong climatology on our their side. However one cannot deny that this wave looks good on satellite images so some slow development is possible over the next 2-3 days as the system approaches the southern Windward Is.
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06162017 800AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
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Rip76
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I had asked this question a couple of weeks ago, but it got lost in the shuffle I believe.

Now that Hurricane Season is here, I've always liked listening to NOAA Weather Radio when something gets in the gulf.
Do we even have the capability to stream NOAA anymore?

HGX
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Corpus

I can't find them anymore.

(Sorry to get sort of off topic)
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Katdaddy
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Our NW Caribbean and Invest 92L are looking better organized this morning.
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wxman57
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The trend is for a stronger ridge across the northern Gulf coast early next week, resulting in a more westerly track of this system. I think it will develop 40-45 mph winds by Sunday night, but the circulation may be too poorly-defined and broad for an upgrade until Monday PM or Tuesday AM. It's not looking like we'll see any rain out of it if it moves inland south of Tampico as per the ECMWF. Still a chance that some heavy rain may impact south TX.
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[Sad Price is Right Music]

Need some rain.
Cromagnum
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Of course. Summer of 2011 reminders...
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Texaspirate11
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wxman57 wrote:The trend is for a stronger ridge across the northern Gulf coast early next week, resulting in a more westerly track of this system. I think it will develop 40-45 mph winds by Sunday night, but the circulation may be too poorly-defined and broad for an upgrade until Monday PM or Tuesday AM. It's not looking like we'll see any rain out of it if it moves inland south of Tampico as per the ECMWF. Still a chance that some heavy rain may impact south TX.

Totally agree with this scenario. Got my eye on Tampico area.
But dang I love this heat - finally SUMMER....
Thanks for this update.
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tireman4
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wxman57 wrote:The trend is for a stronger ridge across the northern Gulf coast early next week, resulting in a more westerly track of this system. I think it will develop 40-45 mph winds by Sunday night, but the circulation may be too poorly-defined and broad for an upgrade until Monday PM or Tuesday AM. It's not looking like we'll see any rain out of it if it moves inland south of Tampico as per the ECMWF. Still a chance that some heavy rain may impact south TX.

And of course, I do not to reiterate this, but this is just the start of the season. All, please do make sure your Hurricane Kits are stocked and ready. Whatever happens, the pro mets will guide you through this season and beyond
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Great stuff. New to the board. Lots to watch next few days.
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Katdaddy
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Welcome to the KHOU board DanTheWxMan.
Cromagnum
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Totally agree with this scenario. Got my eye on Tampico area.
But dang I love this heat - finally SUMMER....
Thanks for this update.
You are crazy. It's been hot since February. I'm hoping fall weather is in like a lion in September and stays cold until next March. I'm sick of the never ending heat down here.
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Cromagnum wrote:
Totally agree with this scenario. Got my eye on Tampico area.
But dang I love this heat - finally SUMMER....
Thanks for this update.
You are crazy. It's been hot since February. I'm hoping fall weather is in like a lion in September and stays cold until next March. I'm sick of the never ending heat down here.
Lol no kidding but I think both of us may live in the wrong city. Its already too hot and it hasn't even begun yet.
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Texaspirate11
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Sorry Cro- you'll think I'm crazier when I tell you I come alive when the temps are in the 90's
But this heat & ridging could keep the storm away.....

But O! Look
2 p.m. Update
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