May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Raining pretty heavy here in the Heights, im actually surprised the line of storms didn't fizzle out before they got into the city. lol
houstonia
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The blob over southwest Houston seems to be building right on top of us...
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Rip76
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Starting to hit Pearland now.
Gusty winds, sporadic rain.
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DoctorMu
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Rip76 wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:These mesos went Rorschach on us. Thought we going to get clobbered. Maybe 0.15 in.

The former outflow boundary moving through Harris Co. should provide some soaking. If the MSC NW of Corpus holds together it may provide action towards Galveston.

Any Pearland action?
Outflow boundaries have reached Pearland by this hour. Hope you get some needed rain.
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DoctorMu
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

TXZ226-236-237-290730-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Matagorda TX-
145 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Columbia, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Jackson, Bay City, Freeport, Clute, West Columbia, Sweeny,
Surfside Beach, Richwood, Brazoria, Jones Creek, Oyster Creek,
Bailey's Prairie, Sargent, Wild Peach Village, Van Vleck, Markham,
Wadsworth and Damon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

hope everyone made it through the storm safely - air smells so clean here this morning, love it !

NWS EDD: https://go.usa.gov/xNXeK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Windy conditions can be expected along the immediate coast this
morning, with hazardous driving conditions possible on elevated or
east to west oriented roadways.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today. This activity may be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday through Sunday. This activity may be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-301200-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to moderate winds are expected across the waters through
mid to late morning and a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf
waters, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the bays.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today. Some of these may be capable of producing locally higher
winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday through Sunday. Some of these may be capable of producing
locally higher winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Still some stratiform rain and embedded showers and thunderstorms
going on west southwest of SGR/LBX this morning likely in response
to the MCS moving east through the northwest Gulf. Ceilings of 200
ft briefly possible around CLL/UTS/CXO otherwise mainly VFR.
Showers should pop up late this morning around the area and
transition over to TSRA around noon or a little later. Low
confidence on where specifically so will VCSH/VCTS it for now.

Second issue is gradient wind event near the coast with meso-high
over the far coastal waters that should subside in the next couple
of hours.
45
&&

.MARINE...
Another update to hoist Gale Warning for the Gulf Waters and SCA
for bays as gradient wind event roars away...by 15z expect winds
to have dropped off dramatically from the current gusts of 35-45
knots.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

MARINE...
Meso-high driving gradient winds across the coastal waters and
into the coast and bays. Winds of 20-30kts gusts to 40 for the
next few hours. Winds should weaken as storms well offshore
weaken. Will have to watch comma head rotating in from the west
and could clip or aggravate the already strong winds as it pushes
east. Have hoisted SCA for all waters through 10 am and special
marine warnings through 7 am.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate rainfall lingers across Southeast Texas this
morning behind an outflow boundary that has since pushed off the
Upper Texas Coast. Regional radar mosiac shows most of the
thunderstorm activity this morning relegated to the western Gulf
of Mexico, with an expansive thunderstorm complex stretching from
Corpus Christi to Harlingen slowly pushing to the east.
Extrapolation of current storm movement places this complex into
the western waters sometime between 5 and 7 AM CDT. At least
through the morning hours, this complex will be the primary driver
for rain chances for the region as its parent shortwave trough
lifts towards the region, pushing the complex and associated
surface low/mesoscale convective vortex into it. What remains to
be seen at this time is how far north rain chances will extend
inland this morning as the outflow approaching the South Texas
thunderstorm complex may result in enough low level convergence
off the coast to block inflow and cut off rain chances farther
inland. With mid and upper level steering flow from the southwest
concerned that there may be some expansion or movement to the
northeast into the Matagorda Bay area and have maintained 60-70
PoPs for this morning as a result. However, if this complex
appears to remain offshore an update may be needed later this
morning to lower rain chances.

With most activity along the coast and across the waters early this
morning, expect to see at least a brief break in rain chances but
daytime heating will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development across the region mid to late morning and into the
afternoon. Expect greatest coverage to occur along several of the
remnant boundaries draped across the region. Surface analysis
reveals that yesterday's cold front remains stalled well north of
the Interstate 10 corridor, stretching from San Antonio to Hearne
to Athens. The KGRK radar this morning is also showing several
moisture "fine lines" across the Brazos Valley, indicative of
remnant outflow boundaries from last night's storms. Other
unidentified boundaries may also exist farther south of these
locations. Limited shear (less than 20 knots) present through
early afternoon and much less steep lapse rates than yesterday
(5.5-6.5 C/km) will result in a much lower severe weather threat
today, but with some dry air present between the surface and 600
MB on forecast soundings cannot rule out gusty winds in stronger
convection. 1.7-2 inch precipitable water values today (higher
than the 75th percentile for this time of year) will also mean the
locally heavy rain threat will continue, especially along any of
the aforementioned boundaries. Subsidence from the passing
shortwave trough should result in another break in the rain by
this evening and into tonight, with diurnal heating and
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.8 inch range on Tuesday
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
capable of locally heavy rain. Expect highs to range in the upper
70s to low 80s today, warming into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region Wednesday into the weekend as a series of disturbances now
near the Gulf of Alaska on early morning water vapor imagery drop
to near Baja California and translate east across Texas. Elevated
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.9 inch range will mean the
threat for locally heavy rainfall will persist each day, with rain
chances likely being enhanced during the daytime hours from
heating. Expect high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80s
through the end of the work week. Dry weather may not return to
the forecast until early to mid next week as shortwave ridging
attempts to build into the region.

Huffman

MARINE...
Stormy weather this morning over the coastal waters. Outflow
pushed southward through the region bringing gusty conditions
(20-45kt) and has collided with boundary offshore and being
intercepted by incoming MCS from CRP area. Hoisted a SCA through
10 for these strong winds and elevated seas but by 8-10 am expect
that conditions should be improving except for all but the far
coastal waters where storms will probably be the most active-or
just south of there...will need to keep an eye out for meso high
developing and ramping up winds.

Otherwise easterly winds becoming southeasterly this afternoon
and overnight gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots and then
persisting through Saturday. As moist to very moist conditions
flowing into and through the region expecting showers and
thunderstorms to remain a threat.

ECMWF still painting the scenario of fairly intense low pressure
system developing in the Western Gulf (Saturday) and slowly moving
to near Galveston (Monday morning) which would have big impacts
on the current forecast. Have trended the forecast toward the GFS
but will be watching closely to see of the GFS or the ECMWF blink.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 69 84 69 85 / 40 30 40 20 50
Houston (IAH) 81 70 84 71 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 76 83 / 60 50 60 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...45
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

http://txcoasts.com/

https://cgis.glo.texas.gov/Beachwatch/#loc=84

per http://www.gchd.org/public-health-servi ... advisories re Enterococcus.

The bacteria is common in rain runoff and levels often spike after periods of heavy rain.
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Texaspirate11
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Little bit of wind a bit o'rain that was it for us around Kemah late last night.
Figured it would stay mainly south of me and North.
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Ounce
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Location: Houston
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Texaspirate11 wrote:Little bit of wind a bit o'rain that was it for us around Kemah late last night.
Figured it would stay mainly south of me and North.
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.
8-)
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srainhoutx
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I just emptied 1.40 inches of overnight rainfall out of my gauge. The Texas Tech 3Km WRF is suggesting the complex of storms near Corpus will begin growing upscale and pushing inland with some embedded heavier showers and storms early this afternoon and organize into line of storms across portions of the Hill Country into College Station and on East. Another MCS looks to roll out of Mexico into S Central Texas overnight and push generally East into our Region before some drying occurs later on Tuesday into early Wednesday. In the June Topic I have mentioned the ECMWF solution overnight and the potential for additional heavier rainfall later this week into the weekend.
05292017 06Z TT WRF 10 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f10.gif
05292017 06Z TT WRF 11 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f11.gif
05292017 06Z TT WRF 12 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f12.gif
05292017 06Z TT WRF 13 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f13.gif
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff regarding the Coastal Flooding potential:

A large thunderstorm complex with intense meso low formation over the NW Gulf of Mexico is resulting in strong onshore winds across the coastal waters with several hours of winds gusting over 40mph. This is resulting in a very rapid rise in coastal tides to as much as 3.5-4.0 ft above normal levels.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect until early this afternoon for Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties and a coastal flood warning is in effect for Calhoun County where flooding on the west side of Matagorda Bay is currently in progress. As the meso low begins to weaken and shift NE along the coast today this should help to weaken onshore winds and gradually reduce the coastal flooding in progress by mid afternoon. Until that time water levels will likely reach dune bases along the Gulf beaches and may overwash portions of Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island.
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srainhoutx
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A bit drier weather today into early tomorrow as a Coastal trough S of Louisiana (remnants of yesterday morning's MCV that exited into the NW Gulf near Corpus) moves on East. Upstream near the Baja Peninsula, the next upper air disturbance is heading our way and should see a return of scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into Thursday. Further upstream about a 1000 miles West of Northern California, another upper air feature is heading East in the zonal flow. We will tough more on that potential rain maker in the June Topic as well as some increase in deep tropical moisture surging our way from the NW Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific where 91E is festering South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and may have a chance to spread additional tropical moisture our way into the weekend.

Image
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tireman4
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874
FXUS64 KHGX 301126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...
A weak coastal trough over the Gulf is progged to weaken this
morning with NE winds becoming ESE by afternoon. Winds should
remain light as the gradient remains weak today. Showers have
arrived at the coast and some expansion inland is expected this
morning. Convective temps are in the lower 80s so a little
heating should get things started. Fcst soundings differ with
regard to cloud cover, cigs and rain chances with the NAM looking
more aggressive. A weak disturbance early Wednesday morning could
bring more shra/tsra to coastal areas prior to 12z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Marine observations shows a coastal trough axis extending from
near Buoy 42035 south-southwest towards Buoy 42019. Regional radar
mosaic has shown associated shower and thunderstorm activity
spreading into coastal Louisiana for much of the night, but
a few of these showers have been able to creep into the eastern
waters early this morning. As this trough continues to lift
towards the northeast through the day, expect to see showers (and
possibly a few thunderstorms) push inland into Southeast Texas in
response. Based on the anticipated trajectory of the coastal
trough and CIRA layer precipitable water imagery showing a plume
of PWATs in the 1.6-1.9 range nosing east of the Sabine Pass,
anticipate highest rain chances to materialize east of Interstate
45 today (30-40 PoPs). Will have to keep an eye on the
southeastern counties in case the trajectory of the coastal low
results in rainfall focusing across these areas possibly resulting
in an isolated minor flood threat.

Drier conditions to the west of Interstate 45 (CIRA PWATs 1-1.2
inches this morning) should limit overall coverage but cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm as convective temperatures in
the low to mid 80s are reached this afternoon, especially along
an increasingly diffuse frontal boundary stretching from near
Austin to Hearne to Texarkana. Otherwise, patchy fog early this
morning outside of the Houston metro is expected to lift by mid-
morning with highs in the mid to upper 80s today and partly cloudy
skies.

Generally dry conditions are expected tonight as the coastal
trough lifts inland, but deeper Gulf moisture (now located near
Brownsville on aforementioned CIRA imagery) is expected to surge
northward in its wake. This will result in isolated showers and
thunderstorms returning to the coastal waters by early Wednesday
morning with this moisture pushing inland during the day. Better
moisture tomorrow (PWATs rising back into the 1.6-1.9 range
areawide) should allow for daytime heating to produce an least
scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage inland as highs rise
into the mid 80s, with stronger cells capable of heavier
downpours and possibly some gusty winds as forecast soundings show
a bit of an inverted-V signature/dry subcloud layer. Storms will
be moving, but with mean winds only around 10-15 MPH storm motions
may be slow enough to contribute to a localized minor flood
threat. Activity should diminish with loss of heating tomorrow
evening, but early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
trough near Baja California that will continue to translate
eastward tonight and Wednesday and approach the region Wednesday
night.

The approaching shortwave trough will result in rain chances
increasing from west to east across the region Wednesday night
into Thursday as the right rear quadrant of an associated 70 knot
upper level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings show
moisture continuing to increase during this time as a weak 20 knot
low level jet sets up, allowing precipitable water values to
exceed 1.8 inches. This should result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. As noted in the previous forecast, no
significant surface boundary or focusing feature appears to be
present as today`s remnant frontal boundary should have modified
considerably or washed out by this time. However, convection
during the day Wednesday may leave smaller outflow boundaries that
could provide a focus for development. Rain chances are expected
to taper off Thursday night behind the departing shortwave trough,
before daytime heating again on Friday results in scattered
showers and thunderstorms again. Highs through the end of the week
are forecast to remain in the low to mid 80s.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop down the California
coast and reach Texas by Saturday, with increasing lift ahead of
this feature again resulting is scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Medium range guidance is
somewhat inconsistent on the timing of this shortwave, however,
and rain chances may linger into the beginning of next week before
it clears the region.

Huffman

MARINE...
A coastal trough over the western Gulf has tightened the gradient
and wind speeds have increased. A SCEC is in effect through the
early morning. The trough is expected to weaken and wind speeds
should decrease by late morning. Onshore winds will develop as high
pressure remains over the eastern Gulf and low pressure persists
over the Rockies. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will
prevail through the end of the week. The flow will increase toward
the weekend as a deepening area of low pressure over SE CO moves
across the southern plains. Showers/storms will be possible over the
Gulf waters through the week and mariners should prepare for some
variable/gusty winds with the stronger storms. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 68 86 70 83 / 20 10 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 85 70 86 72 84 / 30 10 40 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 77 84 76 83 / 40 20 20 40 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...43
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DoctorMu
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Glad areas south got a soaking. This weekend was largely a bust in the CLL area. Hoping for precip during the week...a bit wary though.

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GBinGrimes
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Wife and I were sitting out on porch Sunday evening watching a fantastic lightning show meandering in from the NNW and waiting for what was sure to be a good soaking. Kept watching the radar on phone and sure enough, the line kinda danced a jig in portions of Brazos, Robertson, Washington and Grimes counties and then reformed in earnest just south of 105. Weather is as amazing as it is frustrating.
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srainhoutx
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HGX Radar has been repaired and is up and running!
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jasons2k
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Good news on the radar! I've been watching the building convective complex west of San Antonio. It could push an outflow eastward across SE Texas later today/this evening. That may the boundary we need to set off some storms.
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jasons2k
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Position of the coastal trof hasn`t really moved all that much
today. May see a few isolated cells prior to sunset, but should
see a quiet overnight period. The cluster of storms moving sse
across cntl Tx should remain west of the region, but`ll send some
debris overhead later this evening.

The coastal trof may edge a bit closer to the coast toward
morning, but will be in the process of washing out throughout the
day. Expect some iso/sct precip to develop across inland areas
with daytime heating.

Low levels of the atmos will moisten late Wed into Thurs ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance forecast to move across
the area from the wsw. Increasing precip coverage can be expected
late Wed night and thru the day Thurs as this occurs. Most of se
Tx still appears looks to be positioned in a favorable jet position
for upper diffluence during the late night and early morning hours
so we`ll need to keep an eye out for some efficient rainfall. But,
unless a meso boundary emerges, we`ll be lacking a surface focus
many times needed to produce widespread heavy rain/ff issues.

Scattered, mainly diurnal precip can be anticipated thru the
weekend. We`ll be keeping an eye on deep moisture currently
situated on the southern Pacific coast of Mexico. Guidance
suggests this gets caught up in a southerly fetch into the the
western Gulf of Mexico ahead of a slow moving upper trof/weakness
this weekend into early next week. Whether the deepest moisture
reaches the Tx coast or remains further east is unclear at this
point.
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Katdaddy
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The threat of scattered thunderstorms will continue into the weekend:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-010915-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
414 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Stronger
activity may be capable of brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Stronger activity may be capable of brief heavy
downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.
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