April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
javakah
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Continued questions about the cap, expectations of more of a linear storm mode, and expecting the storms around 4 a.m. (Sunday) in Houston itself, gone by probably 7-10 am.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
318 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today resembles more mid/late June than late April with
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Surface dewpoints are in
the low 70s so combined with the temperatures, heat index values
have reached the upper 90s this afternoon. The only thing that is
making it feel "cooler" are the winds which have been gusting to
30 mph at times. Gusty southerly winds will continue tonight which
means temperatures will not drop too much. Low temperatures in the
upper 70s look on track. This may break a few record high minimum
temperatures for Saturday but that may depend upon cooling
Saturday night as a cold front approaches. The strong winds will
certainly drive up tide levels and increase the threat for rip
currents through tomorrow.

Severe weather threat Saturday night...
Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a pretty strong
upper level low over the Great Basin which should drop south
towards the Southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. A warm front should
extend from the Ozarks SW through Oklahoma to the Trans Pecos of
Texas with perhaps a couple small centers of low pressure along it
depending upon the evolution of convection tonight.

Upper level low should then move towards Tx/Ok Panhandles by 12Z
Sunday allowing for a broad area of large scale lift and height
falls to spread over the region. With this there will also be an
elevated mixed layer support capping over much of SE Texas
Saturday going into Saturday night. Upper level forcing may be
slow to spread over the area depending upon the track of the upper
low. Yesterday this lift looked out of phase with surface forcing
and suggest capping may hinder thunderstorm development. Cold
frontal forcing should be strong enough to at least initiate
linear convection with a squall line moving through the area.
Models differ in instability but overall looks like CAPE over 2000
J/Kg will be possible Saturday night over SE Texas. Deep layer
shear near 40-50 knots may be increasing with strong low level
shear around 20-30 knots during the overnight time frame. This
suggests at least a small tornado threat if a discrete cell can
develop which with the frontal forcing look unlikely since the
cap will be eroding all along the front. Storm model looks linear
as suggested by several of the WRF models so feel confident with a
squall line support hail/damaging wind threats. Any tornado may
be brief and along the squall line. Once again this all depends
upon there being enough instability and that capping weakens.

Basic timing of the line of storms looks to be near midnight
Sunday for the College Station area, 4AM Sunday for Houston area
and off the coast 7-10AM Sunday. Temperatures will be dropping
behind the front into the 60s/50s for Sunday.

Last but not least, the flood threat does not look at great for SE
Texas. While there will be high precipitable water values near 2
inches, the axis of moisture looks to move east Saturday afternoon
and night which would support heavy rainfall more over NE Texas
into Arkansas. The line of storms may produce brief heavy rainfall
but the storms will be moving quickly through the area which will
limit the flood threat.
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jasons2k
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Had a hight today of 94 - that's hot. I was out of town, but I hit 94 a couple of days ago too.
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DoctorMu
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Some instability Saturday, but eroding the cap and timing are still tricky. Highest shear east of College Station. Enhanced Severe threat north of NW Harris Co/Hempstead. Late Night passage should dampen severe threat a little, which will be mostly north and east of HOU.

Probably half an inch of rain - would take an inch! Things are a little dry up in CLL


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unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

I love a good storm
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
427 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-300930-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Liberty-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-
Washington-Wharton-
427 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong upper level storm system coupled with a surface cold
front will produce showers and thunderstorms tonight. The best
chance for storms to move across Southeast Texas is between 9 PM
and 5 AM. Some of the storms could become strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail. The storms will end very early
Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another storm system will approach the region on Wednesday. Some
of the storms could again be strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Emergency managers and storm spotters should prepare for possible
activation Saturday night.

$$

TXZ214-235>238-300930-
Brazoria-Chambers-Galveston-Jackson-Matagorda-
427 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A long southerly fetch will produce elevated tide levels along the
coast this morning. Tide levels could rise to between 3.4 and 3.8
feet by Saturday morning and coastal flooding will be possible. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through mid afternoon.
Beachgoers should be prepared for rough seas and strong rip
currents through the weekend. Strong south winds will persist
today and sustained winds of 25 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory
is in effect through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another storm system will approach the region on Wednesday. Some
of the storms could again be strong to severe with damaging winds
and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-300930-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
427 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong southerly winds will persist today decreasing tonight as a
cold front nears the coast. Winds may gust to gale force at times.
An abrupt wind shift to the north is expected in the wake of the
front on Sunday. A line of strong storms will accompany the cold
front very early Sunday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the coastal waters through Sunday afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$
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Katdaddy
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC071-201-291-291230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0080.170429T1156Z-170429T1230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
South central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 730 AM CDT.

* At 656 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over La Porte,
moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Eastern Pasadena, Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park, Seabrook, Beach
City, Channelview, Highlands, Barrett, Cloverleaf, northern Clear
Lake, Crosby, Mont Belvieu, Taylor Lake Village, El Lago,
Shoreacres, Old River-Winfree, Cove, Morgan`s Point and eastern
Houston Ship Channel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2954 9497 2961 9514 2999 9519 2997 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 200DEG 37KT 2968 9505

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
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Katdaddy
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That cell exploded over SE Harris County.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
727 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
East central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 815 AM CDT.

* At 726 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mont Belvieu,
or 10 miles east of Barrett, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Baytown, Liberty, Dayton, Beach City, Highlands,
Barrett, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree, Ames, Daisetta, Hardin,
Kenefick, Cove, Devers, Dayton Lakes and Moss Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 00459/0100

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0591.html

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... tx-02-24-1

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... tx-13-24-1

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Mesoscale Discussion 0591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Areas affected...southeast Texas through western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291419Z - 291615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms over southeast TX will pose some risk
for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly
a brief tornado as it continues northeast this morning. Need for a
WW remains uncertain at this time due to potential limiting factors
for a more sustained severe threat, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Small cluster of storms over southeast TX appears to
have initiated in association with an upper vorticity maximum
depicted on the RAP near the TX coast and is also evident on WV
imagery. The atmosphere is strongly unstable based on the 12Z RAOB
and latest RAP analysis, but a capping inversion near 700 mb at base
of the elevated-mixed layer, along with widespread low clouds will
continue to limit low-level lapse rates and provide a somewhat
hostile environment for robust low-level updraft accelerations.
Despite these limiting factors, moist and unstable inflow from a 50+
kt sly low-level jet may be sufficient to help sustain activity
another few hours through southeast TX into western LA. While 0-1 km
hodographs are large and would support a conditional risk for at
least transient low-level mesocyclones, winds at or above 500 mb and
vertical shear through a deeper layer are relatively weak which
should provide a limiting factor for sustained updraft rotation.
However, activity will pose a near-term threat for mainly isolated
large hail and damaging wind and will continue to be monitored for
possible organization.

..Dial/Weiss.. 04/29/2017

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
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jasons2k
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The way those storms just exploded - I wonder if that's an indication that the cap is not as strong as they are saying?
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srainhoutx
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For what it's worth, the 13Z HRRR initiated the storms that blew up over SE Harris County and moved them NE with not much else expected until overnight when a skinny line of showers passes.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote:For what it's worth, the 13Z HRRR initiated the storms that blew up over SE Harris County and moved them NE with not much else expected until overnight when a skinny line of showers passes.
Bummer. We need a decent rain.
Cromagnum
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We badly need rain south of Houston. Have missed most all of the activity the last two weeks. Only had one day of it this month seems like it.
TexasBreeze
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Other than that one day with the flooding along the coast, it has been a dry month it seems like. Considering the ever present caps, May may not help much either.
unome
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we've only had to water the whole lawn once so far this year, but the last couple days of heat & wind have not been good

https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-monitor
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-forecast
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/k ... 2017-04-28
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/p ... 2017-04-16

hoping for rain tonight
javakah
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Looks like the HRRR is continuing with its expectation that the line of storms, that should be fairly strong across central Texas this evening, will thin and weaken significantly as it comes through (metro around midnight, city proper just a bit before 1).

However, at about the same time as that line comes through Houston, a second (weaker than the initial line this evening across central Texas) line forms west of San Antonio and broadens as it comes through San Antonio/Austin. The HRRR isn't clear yet as to what it thinks will happen to that second line as it gets closer to Houston, but there's at least some hope that there could be more rain than just from the initial thin line.
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srainhoutx
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Saturday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Windy and humid characterize the current weather across SE TX ahead of an approaching cold front tonight.

One lone severe thunderstorm developed early this morning over SE Harris County and tracked NE into Liberty County and has continued on into WC LA this afternoon. Appears capping inversion was locally broken over SE Harris County this morning likely a result of a passing weak short wave. AM soundings showed a slightly weaker cap than models were suggesting, but capping appears to have increased some this afternoon from the SW as little to nothing besides a few showers under the cap have been able to form.

Main question remains how far south deep and potentially severe convection will extend tonight into early Sunday. Cold front will sweep across the area tonight attached to the parent storm system producing snow over the TX panhandle into western KS currently. Models continue to erode the cap…but I do have my doubts especially south of I-10 given the front will be crossing the area during the least amount of heating (in the middle of the night). Best forcing remains out of phase with the actual surface cold front which also does not bode well for thunderstorms and while SPC has much of the area in a slight or enhanced risk threat think the severe threat is generally low across SE TX tonight especially from I-10 southward. Best chances of severe will be found where the cap is weakest and forcing greatest (generally N of I-10), but really N of a Collage Station to Livingston line. Could see the tail end of a N TX squall line graze this area late tonight with mainly a damaging wind and hail threat.

Cold front sweeps off the coast early Sunday with equally strong NW winds for the morning hours and much cooler temperatures, little humidity, and a break from the southern Mexico smoke/haze. High temps. on Sunday only in the lower 70’s with some 50’s across the area Monday AM.

Moisture comes roaring back on Tuesday as the next system arrives on Wednesday. Forecast soundings look loaded with CAPE of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates. Capping also not looking as strong as recent systems, so this could be one to watch for a more significant severe threat across a larger part of the area. Still plenty of time to watch.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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So far, it's looking like a lame line of showers, maybe a tenth of an inch. Hopefully cap can bust. We'll see....
javakah
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Man, it really feels like the area up around Tyler has been tornado warned all day.
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DoctorMu
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javakah wrote:Man, it really feels like the area up around Tyler has been tornado warned all day.
Horrendous E and S of DFW.

A broken line full of BUST heading toward BCS. I watered a bit in hopes to persuade the rain gods to dump on us...the line will probably explode around Huntsville later.


HOU is not out of the woods - there is a NASTY looking cell blowing up east of San Antonio and heading east.
javakah
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My goodness. I was right about that area up around Tyler. It appears that the area was tornado warned for four or five hours. The map of tornado warned areas today there is crazy.

(source: http://www.tornadohq.com/#map)
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