March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
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quiet board for a busy night ?

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srainhoutx
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Pea sized hail here in NW Harris.
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DoctorMu
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Tornado watch continues in Grimes Co and Brazos. Cell south of here still looks nasty. Lots of lightning.
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Rip76
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About to get a decent rain here in Pearland.

Getting hail now.
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Rip76
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Reports of tornadoes in Sagemont.
I've been without power for an hour or so.
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srainhoutx
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Just emptied 1.95 inches of rain out of the rain gauge and had some pea sized hail with the late arriving storms last night. All the nasty pollen has been washed away. Enjoy the drier weather today!
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I got only a trace last night. Then a quick .13" at about 6am with the front. I could use some 'real' rain.
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DoctorMu
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Only 0.5 in of rain IMBY...however, a crystal blue Chamber of Commerce day in CLL today. I'd bottle it up and take in 300 days out of the year! Spectacular. Even the stars are emerging out of the light pollution tonight!
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Active period ahead for Texas and the southern/central plains in general. Tomorrow looks like a severe weather event in Northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma which could spread east on Monday. Middle of the week another upper level low will approach the region and could spark more severe weather and a flooding threat. This is a tricky forecast as models are trending towards a more sheared/slower progressing system which we all know could be issue for flooding. Still too early to say but keep an eye out because someone could see some high qpf totals across Central/Northern/SE Texas.
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srainhoutx
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Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Highly active weather pattern will bring several rounds of southern plains severe thunderstorms over the next week.

First outbreak this afternoon and evening will focus across N TX/OK where tornadoes will be possible. Low level moist Gulf air mass has returned behind the departing Saturday frontal passage, but the local air mass is well capped and moisture is limited to the lowest levels. Capping will keep most if not all of the activity this afternoon and tonight across N TX. Tail end of the short wave may linger over E TX on Monday, but forecast soundings remain well capped so not expecting much of any local activity.

Attention will turn toward mid week as another vigorous storm system heads for the southern plains and TX. SPC has already issued an “enhanced” Day 3 outlook for portions of W/C TX suggesting the significant severe weather event will be possible with this system. Track of the system across the southern plains will surge a strong dryline eastward into a moist and unstable air mass across much of TX on Wednesday. Widespread thunderstorms with numerous severe thunderstorms including all severe modes will be possible. Activity will approach SE TX Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours and will likely continue to be fed by strong shear values, good moisture advection, and decent instability. Suspect areas of SE TX will be outlooked tomorrow for Day 3 (Wednesday) severe probabilities especially N of I-10. Will need to refine the threats early this week as this system become better defined in model guidance, but damaging winds and large hail look to be the current primary threat Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

Guidance is suggesting another powerful system will arrive into the southern plains late this weekend/early next week. This system looks to tap some deep tropical moisture with model progs of nearly 2.0 inch PWS values surging inland from the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. System looks fairly dynamic in nature indicating additional severe weather chances along with a heavy rainfall threat.

SPC Day 3 (Tuesday) Severe Weather Outlook:
03262017 Jeff 1 untitled.png
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The severe weather threat has pushed into the SE US for today however a severe weather threat ramps up over SW OK and Central & NW TX tomorrow as another upper level low begins to push across TX. By Wednesday the severe weather threat will push into E and SE TX. Additional severe weather potential looks to arrive Sunday into next Monday with yet another storm system.
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srainhoutx
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Active weather week ahead top end March and begin April. Will need to monitor Wednesday into Thursday carefully as all modes of severe weather may be possible as well as heavy rainfall rates. The morning Updated QPF over the next 7 days suggests the potential of 2-4 inches of rainfall as March end and possibly higher totals the first weekend of April. Stay weather aware as this active Springtime pattern evolves.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 271522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis this morning continues to sink the boundary
associated with the shortwave that moved through the region
yesterday southward today, and into the eastern zones of the
forecast area. This boundary along with the seabreeze as it moves
onshore, should act as potential lifting mechanisms for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. 12Z Upper air
soundings this morning across SE Texas show a decent amount of
moisture in the lower levels between 900-850mb, and PWs ranging
between 0.70 and 1.10inches. Surface observations have dewpoints
across the CWA between the mid 60s and into the lower 70s. If high
temperatures pan out as forecasted, the convective temperature
should be met by late afternoon.

Forecast soundings are especially in favor of the 21-03Z time frame,
when convective initiation will be possible, with CAPE values
stretching between 2500-3000J/kg. This focus for showers and
thunderstorms will shift from the eastern half of the CWA in the
afternoon, into the northeastern region of southeast Texas as we
move into the evening hours. Therefore, added PoPs to the forecast
between the 00Z to 06Z time frame to account for the chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Minor changes to the temperature forecast in this morning`s update.
Tweaked high temperatures slightly in the southwest corner of the
CWA to account for the cloud cover as seen on visible satellite
imagery. High temperatures should range between the lower 80s near
the coast and into the mid 80s farther inland.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 67 85 68 79 / 10 20 10 20 80
Houston (IAH) 84 69 85 71 82 / 30 10 10 10 80
Galveston (GLS) 82 72 81 74 80 / 20 10 10 10 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
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Katdaddy
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Time to remain weather. Active severe weather across the S Plain through early next week. The first storm system will effect SE TX Wednesday into Wednesday night and second system Sunday into Sunday night.

The first storm system will begin to ramp up today across the Hill Country and NW TX as well a large portion of OK with an Enhanced Risk surrounded by a large Slight Risk area. The entire system pushes ESE into the E portion of TX as well as AR, and NW LA overnight and into tomorrow. The SPC indicates a Moderate Risk may be issued in later outlooks.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A strong storm system will move into TX this evening and across SE TX Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Low level Gulf moisture is returning to the area with near 70 degree dewpoints spreading northward. Low level jet will increase tonight into early Wednesday pushing PWS values over 1.5 inches. Strong jet dynamics come to bear across W TX this afternoon where widespread severe thunderstorms will develop and progress eastward tonight into Wednesday. Some of this activity should be reaching our western counties between 600-1000am on Wednesday. Strong capping inversion in place today begins to weaken on Wednesday, but latest high resolution forecasted soundings do not show a complete erosion of this feature especially south of I-10. Similar to last Friday, there may be a sharp cut off to areas that see thunderstorms and areas that see nothing. Expect the cap to weaken enough north of I-10 for thunderstorms to develop Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Shear values and instability are favorable for thunderstorms to become severe with all severe modes possible (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). SPC Day 2 outlooks does bring a category 3 (enhanced risk outline) into SE TX and this area will be at greatest risk for severe thunderstorms. Models want to linger the system over the area now into Thursday morning with some convection not clearing our eastern counties until mid morning on Thursday.

Brief break on Friday and Saturday before another powerful system arrives into the area on Sunday. Will need to watch the evolution of this system closely over the next few days for both a severe weather and heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Latest guidance wants to develop a surface low along the TX coast on Sunday and move it NE up the coast while moisture values surge to impressive levels (PWS nearing 1.9 inches). This could support training severe thunderstorms over the region on Sunday into Monday.

Day 2 (Wednesday) Severe Weather Outlook:
03282017 Jeff 1 untitled.png
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Ceilings range from VFR along the coast to MVFR over Houston
terminals and then IFR/LIFR for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. The GOES 16
difference channel of 3.9-11 micron really does a great job
showing these low ceilings across the area. Based on this imagery,
ceilings should begin to improve the next couple of hours over
the Houston area and points northward. VAD wind profile from the
KHGX 88D only shows 15-25 knots in the lowest levels, but those
winds should increase during the day. This will also allow for
some gusts near 25 knots this afternoon with good mixing. Ceilings
should lift to VFR for most areas but then are expected to
decrease in the evening. A 40-50kt LLJ should maintain strong
winds overnight as ceilings become MVFR again. Wednesday should be
a messy day for aviation given the forecast for widespread
convection. TAFs have VCSH starting at 09Z but look for VCTS/TSRA
beginning late morning Wednesday through the afternoon in future
TAF updates.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern will bring a couple of stormy
episodes across Southeast Texas over the next seven days. The
first will begin late tonight through Thursday and the second will
occur over the weekend and into Monday night of the upcoming week.
Both systems will bring slight chances for at least isolated
strong thunderstorms to Southeast Texas.

The 06Z NamBufr forecast soundings show a fairly large cap over
the area tonight and early Wednesday morning. Even though this cap
should erode as the upper level storm system moves into the state,
the forecast soundings still showed somewhat of a capping
inversion in place over the southern half of the forecast area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A strong low-level jet will
develop overhead and help provide strong wind shear ahead of the
main area of storms. The latest Nam12, GFS, and ECMWF all show
better chances for strong storms over the northern half of the
area mainly Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center as of 3:30 AM had best chances for severe potential
generally along and east of a line from Madisonville to Tomball
and north of a line from Tomball to Cleveland. PWs are forecast to
reach to around 1.7 inches, indicating the potential for at least
locally heavy rainfall.

Following this system, high pressure will bring a brief warm and
dry period Thursday night through Friday night. The next storm
system will then move across the state from late Saturday through
early Monday. Again looking at widespread rain and thunderstorms
with slight chances for isolated strong or severe storms Sunday
and Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall also again appears to be
possible, especially in the ECMWF solution with a surface low
moving up the coastal plain.

40

MARINE...
Moderate southerly winds this morning are expected to increase to
around 20 knots in offshore areas of the Upper Texas Coast later
this afternoon and tonight. Winds should reach 20 to 25 knots
tonight with seas building to rough levels. A small craft advisory
will be issued for these areas for this afternoon and tonight. Winds
and seas gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday
offshore winds develop which will allow for seas to decrease further
for the end of the week. Southerly winds develop again over the
weekend.

Tide levels are about a half foot above normal and will likely
remain elevated for the next couple of days. Offshore winds on
Thursday into Friday may push tides lower.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 79 59 75 / 10 50 80 30 10
Houston (IAH) 85 71 84 67 80 / 10 20 80 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 79 72 77 70 77 / 10 10 60 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
Andrew
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Latest HRRR shows convection could be approaching the region around the early to mid morning hours.
hrrr_ref_texas_14.png
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unome
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tragic :'(

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 9636919296

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.
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Central Texas is getting lit up tonight. Nasty bow echo just W/SW of Abilene.
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djjordan
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unome wrote:tragic :'(

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 9636919296

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.
That is sad to see!!! My heart goes out to their families.
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