March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

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Katdaddy
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The severe weather threat has pushed into the SE US for today however a severe weather threat ramps up over SW OK and Central & NW TX tomorrow as another upper level low begins to push across TX. By Wednesday the severe weather threat will push into E and SE TX. Additional severe weather potential looks to arrive Sunday into next Monday with yet another storm system.
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srainhoutx
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Active weather week ahead top end March and begin April. Will need to monitor Wednesday into Thursday carefully as all modes of severe weather may be possible as well as heavy rainfall rates. The morning Updated QPF over the next 7 days suggests the potential of 2-4 inches of rainfall as March end and possibly higher totals the first weekend of April. Stay weather aware as this active Springtime pattern evolves.
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 271522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis this morning continues to sink the boundary
associated with the shortwave that moved through the region
yesterday southward today, and into the eastern zones of the
forecast area. This boundary along with the seabreeze as it moves
onshore, should act as potential lifting mechanisms for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. 12Z Upper air
soundings this morning across SE Texas show a decent amount of
moisture in the lower levels between 900-850mb, and PWs ranging
between 0.70 and 1.10inches. Surface observations have dewpoints
across the CWA between the mid 60s and into the lower 70s. If high
temperatures pan out as forecasted, the convective temperature
should be met by late afternoon.

Forecast soundings are especially in favor of the 21-03Z time frame,
when convective initiation will be possible, with CAPE values
stretching between 2500-3000J/kg. This focus for showers and
thunderstorms will shift from the eastern half of the CWA in the
afternoon, into the northeastern region of southeast Texas as we
move into the evening hours. Therefore, added PoPs to the forecast
between the 00Z to 06Z time frame to account for the chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Minor changes to the temperature forecast in this morning`s update.
Tweaked high temperatures slightly in the southwest corner of the
CWA to account for the cloud cover as seen on visible satellite
imagery. High temperatures should range between the lower 80s near
the coast and into the mid 80s farther inland.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 67 85 68 79 / 10 20 10 20 80
Houston (IAH) 84 69 85 71 82 / 30 10 10 10 80
Galveston (GLS) 82 72 81 74 80 / 20 10 10 10 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
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Katdaddy
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Time to remain weather. Active severe weather across the S Plain through early next week. The first storm system will effect SE TX Wednesday into Wednesday night and second system Sunday into Sunday night.

The first storm system will begin to ramp up today across the Hill Country and NW TX as well a large portion of OK with an Enhanced Risk surrounded by a large Slight Risk area. The entire system pushes ESE into the E portion of TX as well as AR, and NW LA overnight and into tomorrow. The SPC indicates a Moderate Risk may be issued in later outlooks.
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A strong storm system will move into TX this evening and across SE TX Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Low level Gulf moisture is returning to the area with near 70 degree dewpoints spreading northward. Low level jet will increase tonight into early Wednesday pushing PWS values over 1.5 inches. Strong jet dynamics come to bear across W TX this afternoon where widespread severe thunderstorms will develop and progress eastward tonight into Wednesday. Some of this activity should be reaching our western counties between 600-1000am on Wednesday. Strong capping inversion in place today begins to weaken on Wednesday, but latest high resolution forecasted soundings do not show a complete erosion of this feature especially south of I-10. Similar to last Friday, there may be a sharp cut off to areas that see thunderstorms and areas that see nothing. Expect the cap to weaken enough north of I-10 for thunderstorms to develop Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Shear values and instability are favorable for thunderstorms to become severe with all severe modes possible (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). SPC Day 2 outlooks does bring a category 3 (enhanced risk outline) into SE TX and this area will be at greatest risk for severe thunderstorms. Models want to linger the system over the area now into Thursday morning with some convection not clearing our eastern counties until mid morning on Thursday.

Brief break on Friday and Saturday before another powerful system arrives into the area on Sunday. Will need to watch the evolution of this system closely over the next few days for both a severe weather and heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Latest guidance wants to develop a surface low along the TX coast on Sunday and move it NE up the coast while moisture values surge to impressive levels (PWS nearing 1.9 inches). This could support training severe thunderstorms over the region on Sunday into Monday.

Day 2 (Wednesday) Severe Weather Outlook:
03282017 Jeff 1 untitled.png
[/i]
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Ceilings range from VFR along the coast to MVFR over Houston
terminals and then IFR/LIFR for KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. The GOES 16
difference channel of 3.9-11 micron really does a great job
showing these low ceilings across the area. Based on this imagery,
ceilings should begin to improve the next couple of hours over
the Houston area and points northward. VAD wind profile from the
KHGX 88D only shows 15-25 knots in the lowest levels, but those
winds should increase during the day. This will also allow for
some gusts near 25 knots this afternoon with good mixing. Ceilings
should lift to VFR for most areas but then are expected to
decrease in the evening. A 40-50kt LLJ should maintain strong
winds overnight as ceilings become MVFR again. Wednesday should be
a messy day for aviation given the forecast for widespread
convection. TAFs have VCSH starting at 09Z but look for VCTS/TSRA
beginning late morning Wednesday through the afternoon in future
TAF updates.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern will bring a couple of stormy
episodes across Southeast Texas over the next seven days. The
first will begin late tonight through Thursday and the second will
occur over the weekend and into Monday night of the upcoming week.
Both systems will bring slight chances for at least isolated
strong thunderstorms to Southeast Texas.

The 06Z NamBufr forecast soundings show a fairly large cap over
the area tonight and early Wednesday morning. Even though this cap
should erode as the upper level storm system moves into the state,
the forecast soundings still showed somewhat of a capping
inversion in place over the southern half of the forecast area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A strong low-level jet will
develop overhead and help provide strong wind shear ahead of the
main area of storms. The latest Nam12, GFS, and ECMWF all show
better chances for strong storms over the northern half of the
area mainly Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center as of 3:30 AM had best chances for severe potential
generally along and east of a line from Madisonville to Tomball
and north of a line from Tomball to Cleveland. PWs are forecast to
reach to around 1.7 inches, indicating the potential for at least
locally heavy rainfall.

Following this system, high pressure will bring a brief warm and
dry period Thursday night through Friday night. The next storm
system will then move across the state from late Saturday through
early Monday. Again looking at widespread rain and thunderstorms
with slight chances for isolated strong or severe storms Sunday
and Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall also again appears to be
possible, especially in the ECMWF solution with a surface low
moving up the coastal plain.

40

MARINE...
Moderate southerly winds this morning are expected to increase to
around 20 knots in offshore areas of the Upper Texas Coast later
this afternoon and tonight. Winds should reach 20 to 25 knots
tonight with seas building to rough levels. A small craft advisory
will be issued for these areas for this afternoon and tonight. Winds
and seas gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday
offshore winds develop which will allow for seas to decrease further
for the end of the week. Southerly winds develop again over the
weekend.

Tide levels are about a half foot above normal and will likely
remain elevated for the next couple of days. Offshore winds on
Thursday into Friday may push tides lower.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 69 79 59 75 / 10 50 80 30 10
Houston (IAH) 85 71 84 67 80 / 10 20 80 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 79 72 77 70 77 / 10 10 60 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
Andrew
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Latest HRRR shows convection could be approaching the region around the early to mid morning hours.
hrrr_ref_texas_14.png
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unome
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tragic :'(

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 9636919296

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.
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Central Texas is getting lit up tonight. Nasty bow echo just W/SW of Abilene.
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unome wrote:tragic :'(

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/stat ... 9636919296

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.
That is sad to see!!! My heart goes out to their families.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Katdaddy
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A line of strong thunderstorms is moving into SE TX currently however no watches or warnings are in effect. The line of storms will move across the Houston-Galveston areas after 9AM. The potential will remain for some storms to go severe. After this line pushes E of the area, additional develop may occur later this afternoon ahead of the front that will pass through SE TX tonight.

The line of storms is currently pushing across ETX as well this morning. There were numerous reports of wind of wind damage across N portions of Dallas-Ft Worth last night with 200,000 people without power this morning.
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A very active night across a large part of TX with numerous reports of severe weather damage and several tornadoes.

West TX squall line is progressing into the western counties of SE TX currently. Line currently extends from near Huntsville to near Victoria and progressing eastward steadily. Overall storm intensity has been weaken and this was shown by the rapid refresh models yesterday. Additionally the line is slowing as it has now moved well ahead of the favorable lift and dynamics of the parent upper level system over the southern plains. While the air mass will slowly destabilize across SE TX this morning, expect the incoming line to continue to weaken and likely reach the I-45 corridor around 900-1000am. Air mass behind the line is fairly stable with temperatures falling into the 60’s on a large generated west TX cold pool.

Better dynamics with a splitting jet structure and better lapse rates arrive over the area later this afternoon. If surface temperatures can rebound to around 80 degrees behind the first decaying line of thunderstorms then additional thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon. This is a conditional threat based on clouds clearing behind the morning activity and enough surface heating occurring.

While the morning storms may still produce an isolated damaging wind gust the current severe weather threat is low. If storms are able to redevelop this afternoon the main threat would be large hail given the cooling temperatures aloft.

Area will enjoy a break between storm systems Thursday-Saturday before the next organized system arrive Sunday. Global models are showing the arrival of a potent upper air system into W TX late Saturday which will fire off another round of severe thunderstorms over the western and central part of the state Saturday afternoon and night. This activity should begin to arrive into SE TX Sunday and continue into Sunday night and possibly Monday morning. This system is looking fairly wet with heavy rainfall and possibly flash flooding on Sunday into Sunday night. While the overall speed of the system is progressive very high moisture values will be brought into the area and dynamics aloft look to be placed over top of these high values which will maximize rainfall rates. Still a lot of time to watch and fine tune impacts for the Sunday/Monday period.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
809 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Eastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 809 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wallis, or 9
miles south of Sealy, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Rosenberg, Katy, Richmond, Sealy, Brookshire, Wallis,
Fulshear, Simonton, San Felipe, Pattison, Orchard, Weston Lakes,
Cumings and Cinco Ranch.
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Overshooting tops noted via GOES 16 with the storms just West of Houston.
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03292017 mcd0367.gif
Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291323Z - 291430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to move across
southeast Texas over the next few hours. A few damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with short bowing line
segments. However threat threat should remain marginal for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a continuous line of
thunderstorms located from about 40 statute miles west of Houston
extending south southwestward to the vicinity of Victoria. The line
appears to be located along an old outflow boundary. Ahead of this
line, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the upper
60s F with moderate instability in place (MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg). The line of storms is being supported by a subtle shortwave
trough moving around an upper-level low in the southern high Plains
and this will help maintain the line as it moves across the
remainder of southeast Texas over the next few hours. Concerning the
environment, the Houston WSR-88D VWP shows substantial directional
shear in the boundary layer with ample speed shear above 2 km AGL.
This is resulting in about 70 kt of 0-6 km shear suggesting storm
organization will be possible with this convection. The current
thinking is that this line will continue to have an isolated severe
threat and that a few damaging wind gusts will occur as the line
moves across the Houston area. A brief tornado can also not be ruled
out but low-level shear appears to be marginal for a more sustained
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/29/2017


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
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unome
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looking green, hearing thunder, may be time to unplug for a while

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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Radar shows one band of storms that moved across KCLL to KUTS
this morning with another band of storms approaching from the
W/SW. This line on its current track and speed should reach
KSGR/KHOU/KIAH around 13-15Z time frame. All TAFs are accounting
for similar timing for KLBX/KGLS/KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. There is still
capping the line is fighting since the southern extend of the
squall line is struggling to hold together. This will be the main
concern for the next 6 hours. Difficult to know if the storms will
hold together or weaken into just showers as they reach Houston
terminals. TAFs reflect storms reaching Houston but will need to
watch trends closely. Trends with the HRRR show the line weakening
through the morning hours although the timing from the HRRR is to
slow. HRRR also indicates the possibility of storms re-developing
this afternoon/evening. Quite possible IF there is enough
recovery and the atmosphere is not overworked by previous
convection. TAFs reflect this possibility with VCTS but this could
very well be removed with future TAF updates depending on how the
first round of convection evolves. Overnight NAM suggests MVFR
ceilings with remaining low level moisture while GFS is drier.
TAFs went with trends of drier ahead of Pacific front that pushes
through the area 06-10Z tomorrow morning. VFR expected for
Thursday.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low pressure trough will move across the state today and
the associated cold front will push across SE Texas tonight. A
line of thunderstorms was moving east of the Interstate 35
corridor at 3:00 AM. The latest models have been a bit slow with
the advent of the storms; although, the latest runs of the HRRR
are fairly close. All the models slow the advance of the line of
storms as they enter into the western counties of the forecast
area. If the storms continue their current trends, expect the line
to reach College Station and Madisonville by 4:00 AM. If it does
not slow down, the line should then reach Huntsville, Bellville,
and possibly Columbus between 5:00 and 6:00 AM. All the models
then show the line slowing and probably not reaching metro
Houston until sometime between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM.

Still looking at a decent environment for at least isolated severe
storms. Main threats are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
given 0-3 km helicity values are between 300 and 400 ahead of the
line. Other threats include large hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Expect the initial line of storms to move out of the area during
the midday to early afternoon period. The HRRR shows the potential
for additional development later in the afternoon. The actual cold
front will move across the forecast area tonight.

After a cooler day on Thursday, an upper level ridge moving
overhead will set things up for a rather warm Friday. Highs on
Friday will likely reach into the mid 80s.

The progressive flow aloft will bring the next system across SE
Texas over the weekend and early next week. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday and Sunday night.
Isolated to strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
again look to be possible.

40

MARINE...
Southeast winds of 20 to 28 knots will continue across the Upper
Texas Coast this morning. Seas have become rough with significant
wave heights reaching 6-7ft nearshore and 8-9ft off shore based on
NOAA buoys. Winds should decrease later today but due to the long
fetch of southeast winds, seas will remain rough. Small craft
advisory has been extended for the offshore waters until this
evening when seas should drop below 7 feet. A Pacific front will
push off the coast Thursday morning allowing for winds to shift
to the northwest. Winds quickly return to the south on Friday and
increase through the weekend. Caution or advisories may be needed
over the weekend. Another Pacific front pushes through early
Monday which will shift winds again.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 56 77 56 86 / 80 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 61 78 57 86 / 80 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 66 74 66 78 / 70 50 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM CDT this morning
through this evening for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
unome
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https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ ... 1703291350

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
857 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 856 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Katy, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Katy, Jersey Village, Brookshire, Addicks Park Ten, Spring Branch
North, Spring Branch West, Fulshear, Pattison, Westbranch, Cypress,
Carverdale, Cinco Ranch and Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 9590 2984 9600 3006 9571 2984 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 236DEG 20KT 2981 9588

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
unome
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hearing small hail, nothing much & no gushing rain, which is what we need to get rid of the pollen

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... GX-HHC-1-6

edit: ask & ye shall receive, now it's pouring :)
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